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Synchrony of Dengue Incidence in Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok
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نویسنده
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hoang quoc c. ,henrik s. ,isabel r.-b. ,in-kyu y. ,chau n.v.v. ,hung n.t. ,tuan h.m. ,lan p.t. ,willis b. ,nisalak a. ,kalayanarooj s. ,cummings d.a.t. ,simmons c.p.
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منبع
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plos neglected tropical diseases - 2016 - دوره : 10 - شماره : 12
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چکیده
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Background: ho chi minh city and bangkok are highly dengue endemic. the extent to which disease patterns are attributable to local versus regional dynamics remains unclear. to address this gap we compared key transmission parameters across the locations. methods and principal findings: we used 2003–2009 age-stratified case data to inform catalytic transmission models. further,we compared the spatial clustering of serotypes within each city. we found that annual case numbers were highly consistent across the two cities (correlation of 0.77,95% ci: 0.74–0.79) as was the annual force of infection (correlation of 0.57,95% ci: 0.46–0.68). serotypes were less similar with serotype-specific correlations ranging from 0.65 for denv1 to -0.14 for denv4. significant spatial clustering of serotypes was observed in hcmc at distances <500m,similar to previous observations from bangkok. discussions: dengue dynamics are comparable across these two hubs. low correlation in serotype distribution suggests that similar built environments,vector populations and climate,rather than viral flow drives these observations. © 2016 hoang quoc et al.
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آدرس
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pasteur institute in ho chi minh city,167 pasteur,district 3,ho chi minh city,viet nam,oxford university clinical research unit,hospital for tropical diseases,district 5,ho chi minh city, Viet Nam, department of epidemiology,johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health,baltimore,md,united states,mathematical modelling of infectious diseases unit,institute pasteur,paris,france,cnrs,ura3012,paris,france,center of bioinformatics,biostatistics and integrative biology,institut pasteur,paris, France, department of epidemiology,johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health,baltimore,md, United States, international vaccine institute,seoul,south korea,armed forces research institute of medical sciences,bangkok, Thailand, hospital for tropical diseases,district 5,ho chi minh city, Viet Nam, children’s hospital no. 1,district 10,ho chi minh city, Viet Nam, children’s hospital no. 2,district 1,ho chi minh city, Viet Nam, pasteur institute in ho chi minh city,167 pasteur,district 3,ho chi minh city, Viet Nam, oxford university clinical research unit,hospital for tropical diseases,district 5,ho chi minh city, Viet Nam, armed forces research institute of medical sciences,bangkok, Thailand, queen sirikit national institute of child health,bangkok, Thailand, department of epidemiology,johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health,baltimore,md,united states,department of biology,university of florida,gainesville,fl, United States, oxford university clinical research unit,hospital for tropical diseases,district 5,ho chi minh city,viet nam,department of microbiology and immunology,university of melbourne,the peter doherty institutevic, Australia
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Authors
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