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Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika,dengue,and chikungunya using mechanistic models
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نویسنده
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mordecai e.a. ,cohen j.m. ,evans m.v. ,gudapati p. ,johnson l.r. ,lippi c.a. ,miazgowicz k. ,murdock c.c. ,rohr j.r. ,ryan s.j. ,savage v. ,shocket m.s. ,stewart ibarra a. ,thomas m.b. ,weikel d.p.
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منبع
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plos neglected tropical diseases - 2017 - دوره : 11 - شماره : 4
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چکیده
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Recent epidemics of zika,dengue,and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by aedes aegypti and ae. albopictus mosquitoes. we use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for zika,chikungunya,and dengue change with mean temperature,and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. across all three viruses,models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18–34°c with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26–29°c. controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors,temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission,but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones. © 2017 mordecai et al.
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آدرس
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biology department,stanford university,371 serra mall,stanford,ca, United States, department of integrative biology,university of south florida,4202 east fowler ave,tampa,fl sca110, United States, department of statistics,virginia polytechnic and state university,250 drillfield drive,blacksburg,va, United States, biology department,stanford university,371 serra mall,stanford,ca, United States, department of integrative biology,university of south florida,4202 east fowler ave,tampa,fl sca110,united states,department of statistics,virginia polytechnic and state university,250 drillfield drive,blacksburg,va, United States, department of geography,university of florida,turlington hall,gainesville,fl, United States, center for tropical and emerging global disease,department of infectious diseases,university of georgia college of veterinary medicine,501 d.w. brooks drive,athens,ga, United States, center for tropical and emerging global disease,department of infectious diseases,university of georgia college of veterinary medicine,501 d.w. brooks drive,athens,ga,united states,odum school of ecology,university of georgia,athens,ga, United States, department of integrative biology,university of south florida,4202 east fowler ave,tampa,fl sca110, United States, department of geography,university of florida,turlington hall,gainesville,fl,united states,emerging pathogens institute,university of florida,gainesville,fl,united states,center for global health and translational science,department of microbiology and immunology,suny upstate medical university,weiskotten hall,syracuse,ny,united states,school of life sciences,college of agriculture,engineering,and science,university of kwazulu natal,private bag x01,scottsville,kwazulu natal, South Africa, department of ecology and evolutionary biology,university of california los angeles,department of biomathematics,university of california los angeles,los angeles,ca,united states,santa fe institute,santa fe,nm, United States, biology department,stanford university,371 serra mall,stanford,ca,united states,department of biology,indiana university,jordan hall 142,bloomington,in, United States, center for global health and translational sciences,suny upstate medical university,syracuse,ny, United States, department of entomology and center for infectious disease dynamics,penn state university,112 merkle lab,university park,pa, United States, department of biostatistics,university of michigan,1415 washington heights,ann arbor,mi, United States
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Authors
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