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Animal Reservoir,Natural and Socioeconomic Variations and the Transmission of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chenzhou,China,2006-2010
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نویسنده
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xiao h. ,tian h.-y. ,gao l.-d. ,liu h.-n. ,duan l.-s. ,basta n. ,cazelles b. ,li x.-j. ,lin x.-l. ,wu h.-w. ,chen b.-y. ,yang h.-s. ,xu b. ,grenfell b.
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منبع
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plos neglected tropical diseases - 2014 - دوره : 8 - شماره : 1 - صفحه:31
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چکیده
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Background:china has the highest incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (hfrs) worldwide. reported cases account for 90% of the total number of global cases. by 2010,approximately 1.4 million hfrs cases had been reported in china. this study aimed to explore the effect of the rodent reservoir,and natural and socioeconomic variables,on the transmission pattern of hfrs.methodology/principal findings:data on monthly hfrs cases were collected from 2006 to 2010. dynamic rodent monitoring data,normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi) data,climate data,and socioeconomic data were also obtained. principal component analysis was performed,and the time-lag relationships between the extracted principal components and hfrs cases were analyzed. polynomial distributed lag (pdl) models were used to fit and forecast hfrs transmission. four principal components were extracted. component 1 (f1) represented rodent density,the ndvi,and monthly average temperature. component 2 (f2) represented monthly average rainfall and monthly average relative humidity. component 3 (f3) represented rodent density and monthly average relative humidity. the last component (f4) represented gross domestic product and the urbanization rate. f2,f3,and f4 were significantly correlated,with the monthly hfrs incidence with lags of 4 months (r = -0.289,p<0.05),5 months (r = -0.523,p<0.001),and 0 months (r = -0.376,p<0.01),respectively. f1 was correlated with the monthly hfrs incidence,with a lag of 4 months (r = 0.179,p = 0.192). multivariate pdl modeling revealed that the four principal components were significantly associated with the transmission of hfrs.conclusions:the monthly trend in hfrs cases was significantly associated with the local rodent reservoir,climatic factors,the ndvi,and socioeconomic conditions present during the previous months. the findings of this study may facilitate the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of hfrs and similar diseases. © 2014.
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آدرس
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college of resources and environment science,hunan normal university,changsha,china,center for disease control and prevention of beijing military region,beijing, China, college of global change and earth system science,beijing normal university,beijing,china,school of environment,tsinghua university,beijing,china,center for disease control and prevention of beijing military region,beijing, China, hunan provincial center for disease control and prevention,changsha,china,center for disease control and prevention of beijing military region,beijing, China, college of resources and environment science,hunan normal university,changsha,china,center for disease control and prevention of beijing military region,beijing, China, chenzhou municipal center for disease control and prevention,chenzhou,china,center for disease control and prevention of beijing military region,beijing, China, department of ecology and evolutionary biology,princeton university,princeton,nj,united states,fogarty international center,national institutes of health,bethesda,md,united states,center for disease control and prevention of beijing military region,beijing, China, ecologie and evolution,umr 7625,upmc-ens,paris,france,ummisco umi 209 ird - upmc,bondy,france,center for disease control and prevention of beijing military region,beijing, China, school of public health,shandong university,jinan,china,center for disease control and prevention of beijing military region,beijing, China, college of resources and environment science,hunan normal university,changsha,china,center for disease control and prevention of beijing military region,beijing, China, chenzhou municipal center for disease control and prevention,chenzhou,china,center for disease control and prevention of beijing military region,beijing, China, hunan provincial center for disease control and prevention,changsha,china,center for disease control and prevention of beijing military region,beijing, China, school of public health,shandong university,jinan,china,center for disease control and prevention of beijing military region,beijing, China, college of global change and earth system science,beijing normal university,beijing,china,school of environment,tsinghua university,beijing,china,center for disease control and prevention of beijing military region,beijing, China, department of ecology and evolutionary biology,princeton university,princeton,nj,united states,fogarty international center,national institutes of health,bethesda,md,united states,center for disease control and prevention of beijing military region,beijing, China
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Authors
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