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Predicting the geographical distributions of the macaque hosts and mosquito vectors of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in forested and non-forested areas
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نویسنده
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moyes c.l. ,shearer f.m. ,huang z. ,wiebe a. ,gibson h.s. ,nijman v. ,mohd-azlan j. ,brodie j.f. ,malaivijitnond s. ,linkie m. ,samejima h. ,o'brien t.g. ,trainor c.r. ,hamada y. ,giordano a.j. ,kinnaird m.f. ,elyazar i.r.f. ,sinka m.e. ,vythilingam i. ,bangs m.j. ,pigott d.m. ,weiss d.j. ,golding n. ,hay s.i.
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منبع
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parasites and vectors - 2016 - دوره : 9 - شماره : 1
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چکیده
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Background: plasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic pathogen,transmitted among macaques and to humans by anopheline mosquitoes. information on p. knowlesi malaria is lacking in most regions so the first step to understand the geographical distribution of disease risk is to define the distributions of the reservoir and vector species. methods: we used macaque and mosquito species presence data,background data that captured sampling bias in the presence data,a boosted regression tree model and environmental datasets,including annual data for land classes,to predict the distributions of each vector and host species. we then compared the predicted distribution of each species with cover of each land class. results: fine-scale distribution maps were generated for three macaque host species (macaca fascicularis,m. nemestrina and m. leonina) and two mosquito vector complexes (the dirus complex and the leucosphyrus complex). the leucosphyrus complex was predicted to occur in areas with disturbed,but not intact,forest cover (> 60 % tree cover) whereas the dirus complex was predicted to occur in areas with 10-100 % tree cover as well as vegetation mosaics and cropland. of the macaque species,m. nemestrina was mainly predicted to occur in forested areas whereas m. fascicularis was predicted to occur in vegetation mosaics,cropland,wetland and urban areas in addition to forested areas. conclusions: the predicted m. fascicularis distribution encompassed a wide range of habitats where humans are found. this is of most significance in the northern part of its range where members of the dirus complex are the main p. knowlesi vectors because these mosquitoes were also predicted to occur in a wider range of habitats. our results support the hypothesis that conversion of intact forest into disturbed forest (for example plantations or timber concessions),or the creation of vegetation mosaics,will increase the probability that members of the leucosphyrus complex occur at these locations,as well as bringing humans into these areas. an explicit analysis of disease risk itself using infection data is required to explore this further. the species distributions generated here can now be included in future analyses of p. knowlesi infection risk. © 2016 moyes et al.
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کلیدواژه
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Deforestation; Species distribution model
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آدرس
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spatial ecology and epidemiology group,big data institute,li ka shing centre for health information and discovery,university of oxford,oxford,ox3 7bn, United Kingdom, spatial ecology and epidemiology group,big data institute,li ka shing centre for health information and discovery,university of oxford,oxford,ox3 7bn, United Kingdom, spatial ecology and epidemiology group,department of zoology,university of oxford,oxford,ox1 3ps, United Kingdom, spatial ecology and epidemiology group,big data institute,li ka shing centre for health information and discovery,university of oxford,oxford,ox3 7bn, United Kingdom, spatial ecology and epidemiology group,department of zoology,university of oxford,oxford,ox1 3ps, United Kingdom, department of social sciences,oxford brookes university,oxford,ox1 0bp, United Kingdom, department of zoology,faculty of resource science and technology,universiti malaysia sarawak,kota samarahan,sarawak 94300, Malaysia, departments of zoology and botany,university of british columbia,vancouver,bc v6t 1z4,canada,biodiversity research centre,university of british columbia,vancouver,bc v6t 1z4, Canada, primate research unit,department of biology,faculty of science,chulalongkorn university,bangkok,10330, Thailand, fauna and flora international,singapore,247672, Singapore, institute for global environmental strategies,kamiyamaguchi 2108-11,hayama-cho,kanagawa,240-0115, Japan, wildlife conservation society,mpala research center,nanyuki,10400, Kenya, research institute for the environment and livelihoods,charles darwin universitynt 0909,australia,faculty of science and technology,federation university australia,mt helen,vic 3350, Australia, evolutionary morphology section,primate research institute,kyoto university,inuyama, Japan, field conservation program,s.p.e.c.i.e.s.,ventura,ca,united states,conservation science program,tiger creek wildlife refuge,tyler,tx, United States, wildlife conservation society,mpala research center,nanyuki,10400, Kenya, eijkman-oxford clinical research unit,jakarta, Indonesia, spatial ecology and epidemiology group,department of zoology,university of oxford,oxford,ox1 3ps, United Kingdom, department of parasitology,faculty of medicine,university of malaya,kuala lumpur, Malaysia, department of entomology,faculty of agriculture,kasetsart university,bangkok 10900,thailand,public health and malaria control department,international sos,jalan kertajasa,kuala kencana,papua 99920, Indonesia, institute for health metrics and evaluation,university of washington,seattle,wa 98121, United States, spatial ecology and epidemiology group,department of zoology,university of oxford,oxford,ox1 3ps, United Kingdom, spatial ecology and epidemiology group,big data institute,li ka shing centre for health information and discovery,university of oxford,oxford,ox3 7bn, United Kingdom, institute for health metrics and evaluation,university of washington,seattle,wa 98121,united states,wellcome trust centre for human genetics,university of oxford,oxford,ox3 7bn, United Kingdom
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