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Climate and environmental change drives Ixodes ricinus geographical expansion at the northern range margin
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نویسنده
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jore s. ,vanwambeke s.o. ,viljugrein h. ,isaksen k. ,kristoffersen a.b. ,woldehiwet z. ,johansen b. ,brun e. ,brun-hansen h. ,westermann s. ,larsen i.-l. ,ytrehus b. ,hofshagen m.
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منبع
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parasites and vectors - 2014 - دوره : 7 - شماره : 1
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چکیده
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Background: global environmental change is causing spatial and temporal shifts in the distribution of species and the associated diseases of humans,domesticated animals and wildlife. in the on-going debate on the influence of climate change on vectors and vector-borne diseases,there is a lack of a comprehensive interdisciplinary multi-factorial approach utilizing high quality spatial and temporal data. methods. we explored biotic and abiotic factors associated with the latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in the distribution of ixodes ricinus observed during the last three decades in norway using antibodies against anaplasma phagocytophilum in sheep as indicators for tick presence. samples obtained from 2963 sheep from 90 farms in 3 ecologically different districts during 1978 - 2008 were analysed. we modelled the presence of antibodies against a. phagocytophilum to climatic-,environmental and demographic variables,and abundance of wild cervids and domestic animals,using mixed effect logistic regressions. results: significant predictors were large diurnal fluctuations in ground surface temperature,spring precipitation,duration of snow cover,abundance of red deer and farm animals and bush encroachment/ecotones. the length of the growth season,mean temperature and the abundance of roe deer were not significant in the model. conclusions: our results highlight the need to consider climatic variables year-round to disentangle important seasonal variation,climatic threshold changes,climate variability and to consider the broader environmental change,including abiotic and biotic factors. the results offer novel insight in how tick and tick-borne disease distribution might be modified by future climate and environmental change. © 2014 jore et al.; licensee biomed central ltd.
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کلیدواژه
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Anaplasma phagocytophilum; Bush encroachment; Climate change; Climatic variability; Ecotones; Global environmental change; Ixodes ricinus; Range expansion; Remote sensing; Tick
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آدرس
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norwegian veterinary institute,p.o.box 750,sentrum 0106,oslo, Norway, georges lemaître centre for earth and climate research,earth and life institute,université catholique de louvain,place louis pasteur 3,b1348,louvain-la-neuve, Belgium, norwegian veterinary institute,p.o.box 750,sentrum 0106,oslo,norway,centre for ecological and evolutionary synthesis (cees),department of bioscience,university of oslo,p.o.box 1066,0316 blindern,oslo, Norway, norwegian meteorological institute,research and development department,division for model and climate analysis,p.o.box 43,0313 blindern,oslo, Norway, norwegian veterinary institute,p.o.box 750,sentrum 0106,oslo,norway,department of informatics,university of oslo,p.o.box 1080,blindern 0316,oslo, Norway, department of infection biology,institute of infection and global health,university of liverpool,chester high road,neston,ch64 7te wirral, United Kingdom, northern research institute,p.o. box 6434,forskningsparken 9294,tromsø, Norway, norwegian veterinary institute,p.o.box 750,sentrum 0106,oslo, Norway, norwegian school of veterinary science,p.o.box 8146,0033,oslo, Norway, department of geosciences,university of oslo,p.o.box 1066,blindern 0316,oslo, Norway, norwegian veterinary institute,p.o.box 750,sentrum 0106,oslo, Norway, norwegian veterinary institute,p.o.box 750,sentrum 0106,oslo, Norway, norwegian veterinary institute,p.o.box 750,sentrum 0106,oslo, Norway
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Authors
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