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Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States
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نویسنده
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shaman j. ,pitzer v.e. ,viboud c. ,grenfell b.t. ,lipsitch m.
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منبع
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plos biology - 2010 - دوره : 8 - شماره : 2
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چکیده
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Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. a recent reanalysis of laboratory experiments indicates that absolute humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. here,we extend these findings to the human population level,showing that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the united states is associated with anomalously low absolute humidity levels during the prior weeks. we then use an epidemiological model,in which observed absolute humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates,to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. the model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by absolute humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. these findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that absolute humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions.
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آدرس
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college of oceanic and atmospheric sciences,oregon state university,corvallis,or, United States, fogarty international center,national institutes of health,bethesda,md,united states,center for infectious disease dynamics,pennsylvania state university,state college,pa,united states,department of ecology and evolutionary biology,princeton university,princeton,nj, United States, fogarty international center,national institutes of health,bethesda,md, United States, fogarty international center,national institutes of health,bethesda,md,united states,department of ecology and evolutionary biology,princeton university,princeton,nj,united states,woodrow wilson school,princeton university,princeton,nj, United States, center for communicable disease dynamics,harvard school of public health,harvard university,boston,ma,united states,department of epidemiology,harvard school of public health,harvard university,boston,ma,united states,department of immunology and infectious diseases,harvard school of public health,harvard university,boston,ma, United States
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Authors
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