Forecasting and modelling of helicoverpa armigera (Hub.) in relation to weather parameter in Multan,Punjab,Pakistan

Weather plays a critical role in regulating abundance of cotton insects. pests forecasting for monitoring and management of such deleterious insects particularly in developing countries where pest management is costly is very important . keeping in view such delicate issues,pests forecasting model on the basis of past 5 years pests abundance data is proposed. population data was taken from different locations of multan district from 2006- 2010 by pests warning wing of agriculture department,govt. of punjab,pakistan. weather in relation to helicoverpa armigera (hub.) abundance was summarized on the basis of multivariate regression and correlation tactics. results revealed that maximum temperature had negative impact on american bollworm population while relative humidity had highly significant positive effect on helicoverpa armigera population. arima model forecast american bollworm percent hot spots will decrease with minimum value -1.4 to maximum value 1.05. copyright © 2015 zoological society of pakistan.