Time series modeling and forecasting of ampang line passenger ridership in Malaysia

Demand for urban rail transit and light rail transit (lrt) has increased nowadays especially in developed countries. the purpose of having the lrt is to provide convenience to the public,reduce traffic congestion,reduce parking difficulties,reduce air pollution and so forth. in malaysia,one of the (light rail transit) lrt routes consists of the ampang line (star line) which runs between the northern suburbs of kuala lumpur,ampang in the east and sri petaling in the south. our focus in this study is to fit a time series model and forecast the monthly passenger ridership of the ampang line. we found that the sarima(2,1,0)×(0,1,0)12model is a useful model for forecasting ampang ridership. the forecast based on this would be useful for the authorities to plan ahead and enable them to make policy decisions. © 2014 pakistan journal of statistics.