تاثیر عوامل محیط زیستی بر مهاجرت‌های داخلی در ایران با تاکید بر خشکسالی

ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ و روﻧﺪ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮتﻫﺎی زﯾﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ در اﯾﺮان را در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎی اﺧﯿﺮ ﺗﺴﺮﯾﻊ ﮐﺮده و اﯾﻦ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ را در ﮐﺎﻧﻮن ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﮕﺮان و ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬاران ﻗﺮار داده اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﭘﯿﺶرو اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺒﯽ ﺑﺮای ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ راﺑﻄﮥ ﻣﯿﺎن ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ و ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت داﺧﻠﯽ اﺳﺖ. در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﻤّﯽ ﺳﻌﯽ ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﮥ ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ 30 ﺳﺎﻟﮥ ﺑﺮای 110 ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﮐﺸﻮر ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺷﺎﺧﺺ spi ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﺑﺎ ﻣﯿﺰان ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮﻓﺮﺳﺘﯽ در ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻧﻬﺎی ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﻮد. در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ، ﺑﺎ ﺣﻀﻮر در دو ﺑﺨﺶ ﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﮐﻮﯾﺮ از ﺗﻮاﺑﻊ اﺳﺘﺎن ﮐﺮﻣﺎن و ﺑﺨﺶ ﻃﺴﻮج از ﺗﻮاﺑﻊ اﺳﺘﺎن ﻓﺎرس ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ از ﻧﻮاﺣﯽ ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﺧﺸﮏ و ﺧﺸﮏ ﮐﺸﻮر ﻣﺤﺴﻮب ﻣﯽﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻌﺪادی از ﺳﺎﮐﻨﺎن ﻫﺮ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ ﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎرﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺑﻌﻤﻞ آﻣﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﻤّﯽ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﺧﺸﮏ ﺑﺎ ﻣﯿﺰان ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮﻓﺮﺳﺘﯽ آن ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﺑﺎﻻﯾﯽ دارد وﻟﯽ در ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﮐﺸﻮر اﯾﻦ راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﺎدار ﻧﺒﻮده اﺳﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ، ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺣﺎﮐﯽ از آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ از دو ﻃﺮﯾﻖ زﻧﺪﮔﯽ اﻓﺮاد ﺳﺎﮐﻦ در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ را ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻗﺮار ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ: ﯾﮑﯽ، ﺑﻪ ﺧﻄﺮ اﻧﺪاﺧﺘﻦ ﻣﻌﺎش؛ و دﯾﮕﺮی، ﺑﻪ ﺧﻄﺮ اﻧﺪاﺧﺘﻦ ﺳﻼﻣﺖ اﻓﺮاد. در ﭘﯽ ﺑﺮوز ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽﻫﺎی ﻣﺪاوم، ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت ﻫﻤﻮاره ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان آﺧﺮﯾﻦ ﮔﺰﯾﻨﮥ ﺣﻞ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ ﻣﻄﺮح ﻣﯽﺷﻮد و ﭘﯿﺶ از آن، اﻓﺮاد ﺳﺎﮐﻦ در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺳﻌﯽ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﻨﺪ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋیﻫﺎی اﻧﻄﺒﺎق ﺑﺎ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻌﻀﻞ روﺑﻪرو ﺷﻮﻧﺪ و زﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﺧﻮد را ﺑﺎ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺟﺪﯾﺪ اﻧﻄﺒﺎق دﻫﻨﺪ. ﺑﺎ اﯾﻦ ﺣﺎل، ﺳﺎﮐﻨﺎن ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﮐﻤﺘﺮﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ در ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺎﮐﻨﺎن ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﺗﺮ، اﻣﮑﺎن ﮐﻤﺘﺮی ﺑﺮای اﻧﻄﺒﺎق ﺑﺎ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺟﺪﯾﺪ دارﻧﺪ؛ ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪای ﮐﻪ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋیﻫﺎی اﻧﻄﺒﺎق در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻧﺘﻮاﻧﺴﺘﻪ ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺰﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ و اﻓﺮاد ﻣﺠﺒﻮر ﺑﻪ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت ﻣﯽﺷﻮﻧﺪ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت، ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻧﻮع اﻗﻠﯿﻢ، ﺑﺴﺘﺮﻫﺎی اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی و ﺳﻄﺢ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﺳﺖ.

the impact of environmental factors on internal migration in iran with a focus on drought

climate change and its consequences for residents in various regions have led to environmental migration, which has become in the center of attention of researchers and policymakers. using mixed method approach, this paper aims to understand the relationship between drought and internal migration. accordingly, in the quantitative part, by estimating the 30-year drought level for 110 counties using the spi index and out-migration rates of the selected counties, the relation between these two variables was examined. the results show that drought in dry regions has a positive relationship with migration in these regions. however, no correlation was found in other areas of the country with different climates. in order to better understand the issue, two districts of negin kavir in kerman province and tasooj in fars province, which are regions with very dry climates, respectively, have been investigated. a sample of residents of each region were in-depth interviewed about the effects of drought on their lives. the results indicate that drought affects the residents of these regions in two ways: risking their livelihoods and risking people’s health. in the occurrence of continuous droughts, migration is considered as a last solution to the problem, and prior to that the residents of such regions try to confront this problem by adjusting their lives with these new conditions. however, in comparison with residents of more developed regions, residents of less-developed regions have a less opportunity to adapt with the new condition. accordingly, adaptation strategies in these regions have failed, and people were forced to migrate.  therefore, the impact of drought on migration depends upon the climate situation as well as regional economic contexts and development level.