ارزیابی پیامدهای تغییرات کاربری زمین روی خدمات اکوسیستم در منطقه ‌شهری غرب تهران

اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﭘﯿﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎی ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﮐﺎرﺑﺮی زﻣﯿﻦ ﺑﺮ ارزشﻫﺎی ﺧﺪﻣﺎت اﮐﻮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺷﻬﺮی واﻗﻊ در ﻏﺮب اﺳﺘﺎن ﺗﻬﺮان اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺪﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر، اﺑﺘﺪا اﻧﻮاع ﮐﺎرﺑﺮی/ ﭘﻮﺷﺶ زﻣﯿﻦ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎی 2000 ،1985 و 2015 ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻃﺒﻘﻪﺑﻨﺪی ﺷﺪه و ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات آنﻫﺎ در ﻃﯽ زﻣﺎن ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﺳﭙﺲ اﻧﻮاع ﺧﺪﻣﺎت اﮐﻮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد، ﺑﺎ ﺗﺒﻌﯿﺖ از روﯾﮑﺮد ﻧﻈﺮی ﮐﺴﺘﺎﻧﺰا و ﻫﻤﮑﺎراﻧﺶ (1997) ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺪه و ارزش اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی آنﻫﺎ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪ. در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ، ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﯿﺎن ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﮐﺎرﺑﺮیﻫﺎ و ارزش ﺧﺪﻣﺎت ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن ﭼﻨﺪﮔﺎﻧﻪ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺷﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎی ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﺗﺠﻤﻊ ﭘﻬﻨﻪﻫﺎی ﺑﺎ ارزش ﺑﺎﻻی ﺧﺪﻣﺎت اﮐﻮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ در ﻧﻮاﺣﯽ ﻣﯿﺎﻧﯽ و ﺷﺮﻗﯽ و در ﻣﺤﻞ اراﺿﯽ ﻣﺮﺗﻌﯽ و ﮐﺸﺎورزی اﺳﺖ. در ﻃﯽ ﺑﺎزه زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ، ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺳﻄﺢ اراﺿﯽ ﻣﺮﺗﻌﯽ و ﮐﺸﺎورزی، ارزش ﺧﺪﻣﺎت اﮐﻮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان 51/2 درﺻﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ. ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن ﻧﺸﺎن داد 9 ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ- اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺷﺎﻣﻞ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﻌﺪاد راهﻫﺎ، ﺗﻌﺪاد ﺷﺎﻏﻼن، ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ، وﺳﺎﯾﻞ ﻧﻘﻠﯿﻪ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ، درآﻣﺪ ﻏﯿﺮﮐﺸﺎورزی، ارزش داراﯾﯽﻫﺎی ﺻﻨﻌﺘﯽ، ﺗﻌﺪاد ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮان وارد ﺷﺪه، اﻧﺪازه ﻗﻄﻌﺎت اراﺿﯽ زراﻋﯽ و ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ دارای ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﺑﺮ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ارزش ﺧﺪﻣﺎت اﮐﻮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ، ﻣﯽﺑﺎﯾﺴﺖ اﻗﺪاﻣﺎت ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰی ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ، ﺑﺎ ﺗﺪوﯾﻦ ﺿﻮاﺑﻂ و ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎی ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﺎﻧﻊ از ﮔﺴﺘﺮش اراﺿﯽ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه در ﭘﻬﻨﻪ اراﺿﯽ ﺳﺒﺰ و ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﮔﺮدد.

impact assessment of the land use changes onecosystem services in the metropolitan region of west tehran

this study was conducted to evaluate the consequences of land use changes on the values of ecosystem services in urban areas of the west of tehran province. for this purpose, first, the land use/cover types of the region in 1985, 2000 and 2015 were classified using the maximum likelihood method, and their changes over time were examined. then, different types of existing ecosystem services were identified using the theoretical approach presented by costanza et al. (1997), and their economic value was calculated. finally, the relationship between factors affecting land use changes and ecosystem service values was analyzed using multiple regression. the results show that, following the reduction of rangelands and agricultural lands, the value of ecosystem services has decreased by 51.2%. based on the results of the regression analysis, the nine following factors affecting socio-economic development have the greatest impact on reducing the value of ecosystem services in the region, respectively: the increase in the number of roads, number of employees, population, public vehicles, non-agricultural income, value of industrial assets, number of immigrants, size of agricultural plots, and gdp. therefore, spatial planning measures, such as spatial rules and policies, should be taken in this region to prohibit the expansion of constructed lands in the area of green and natural lands.