Optimism Following a Tornado Disaster

Effects of exposure to a severe weather disaster on perceived future vulnerability were assessed in college students,local residents contacted through random-digit dialing,and community residents of affected versus unaffected neighborhoods. students and community residents reported being less vulnerable than their peers at 1 month,6 months,and 1 year after the disaster. in studies 1 and 2,absolute risk estimates were more optimistic with time,whereas comparative vulnerability was stable. residents of affected neighborhoods (study 3),surprisingly,reported less comparative vulnerability and lower gut-level numerical likelihood estimates at 6 months,but later their estimates resembled the unaffected residents. likelihood estimates (10%-12%),however,exceeded the 1% risk calculated by storm experts,and gut-level versus statistical-level estimates were more optimistic. although people believed they had approximately a 1-in-10 chance of injury from future tornadoes (i.e.,an overestimate),they thought their risk was lower than peers. © 2013 by the society for personality and social psychology,inc.