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Using cognitive models to combine probability estimates
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نویسنده
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lee m.d. ,danileiko i.
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منبع
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judgment and decision making - 2014 - دوره : 9 - شماره : 3 - صفحه:259 -272
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چکیده
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We demonstrate the usefulness of cognitive models for combining human estimates of probabilities in two experiments. the first experiment involves people's estimates of probabilities for general knowledge questions such as what percentage of the world's population speaks english as a first language? the second experiment involves people's estimates of probabilities in football (soccer) games,such as what is the probability a team leading 1-0 at half time will win the game?
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کلیدواژه
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with ground truths based on analysis of large corpus of games played in the past decade. In both experiments
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آدرس
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department of cognitive sciences,university of california irvine,3151 sspa zot 5100,irvine ca,92697, United States, department of cognitive sciences,university of california irvine,3151 sspa zot 5100,irvine ca,92697, United States
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Authors
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