خوشه‌‏بندی کشورهای هدف صادرات گُل محمدی و فرآورده‌های آن از ایران

به باور کارشناسان، گرچه ایران بزرگ‏ترین تولیدکننده گل محمدی در جهان است، اما در بازار جهانی صادرات اسانس و فرآورده‌ های آن چندان جایگاهی ندارد. بخش اعظم گل محمدی تولیدی در ایران به‏‌صورت گلاب و گل و گلبرگ تازه و خشک در داخل و خارج کشور به مصرف می ‌رسد، در حالی که سودآوری در تولید و صادرات اسانس و عطریات و نیز فرآورده ‌های آرایشی و بهداشتی گل محمدی است. از این‏‌رو، در مطالعه حاضر، پس از محاسبه شاخص‌ های سهم بازار، اندازه بازار، استمرار واردات، قیمت صادراتی، شاخص هرفیندال- هیرشمن و ریسک قیمت صادراتی، کشورهای هدف با بهره ‌گیری از خوشه‌‏بندی k میانگین، بر اساس درجه تشابه با شاخص‌ های یادشده بررسی شدند. داده‌ های مورد نیاز تحقیق برای دوره 1400-1391 از گمرک جمهوری اسلامی ایران جمع ‌آوری شد. بر اساس نتایج پژوهش، کشورهای واردکننده گُل محمدی در پنج خوشه گروه ‌بندی شدند. کشورهای واردکننده گلاب ایران نیز از نظر شباهت با شاخص ‌های یادشده، در پنج خوشه و کشورهای واردکننده اسانس گُل محمدی ایران در چهار خوشه جای گرفتند. بدیهی است که هرگونه برنامه‌ریزی برای حفظ بازارهای هدف، کاهش ریسک قیمت صادراتی و استمرار درآمدی و همچنین، افزایش سهم بازار صادراتی ایران نیازمند توجه به سیاست گذاری سازگار برای کشورهای واقع در هر خوشه است. البته، اولویت صادرات به کشورهای هدف از خوشه اول آغاز می‏‌شود و سپس، به خوشه‌های بعدی توسعه می ‌یابد. در نهایت نیز با توجه به یافته ‌های تحقیق، پیشنهاد می ‌شود که سیاست توسعه صادرات اسانس گل محمدی و صنایع تکمیلی وابسته به آن مد نظر سیاست‏گذاران قرار گیرد.

cluster analysis of target countries for export of damask rose and its products from iran

introduction: according to experts, iran is the largest producer of rose water in the world, but it has a weak position in the global market for the export of rose essence and its products. the majority of rose production in iran is consumed domestically as well as internationally, as rose water, fresh and dried rose petals, while the profitability lies in the production and export of rose essence, perfumes, cosmetic and hygiene products. in this study, after calculating market share, market size, import continuity, export price, herfindahl-hirschman index, and export price risk index, target countries were studied and analyzed using k-means clustering based on similarity with these indices. the required data for the research period of 2012-2021 were collected from the islamic republic of iran customs administration (irica).materials and methods: one of the most important non-hierarchical clustering methods is the k-means method, which is considered as a basic method for many other clustering methods. according to this method, cluster centers are first obtained, which are actually the average points belonging to each cluster. then, each data point is assigned to a cluster based on the cluster whose center has the smallest distance to that data point. the best clustering is one that maximizes the similarity between the cluster center and all cluster members and minimizes the similarity between cluster centers. in this study, the following variables were used for clustering:market share: according to the irica data, it includes those countries that have allocated more than one percent of iran’s exports share to themselves for rose and its products during the studied period (2012-2021).market size: based on the irica data, this index represents the average amount of imports made by selected countries from iran during the studied period.market growth: the average growth of imports during the studied period is considered as an indicator of market growth.continuity of imports: it is the continuous access to the desired market, and this indicator is measured by calculating the coefficient of variation (cv) of imports to that country.market structure: market structure refers to the concentration of buyers and sellers, entry conditions, and the degree of homogeneity of goods. market structure indicates whether the market is monopolistic or competitive, which can be determined by calculating concentration ratios such as the concentration ratio (cr) or the herfindahl-hirschman index (hhi).value of exports: it is obtained by the ratio of the value of exports (in dollars) to the quantity of exports.export price risk: the coefficient of variation (cv) of export prices over the years studied is considered as export price risk.results and discussion: during the studied period (2012-2021), iran exported dried flowers and fresh rose petals to 45 countries around the world. the most important export markets for dried flowers and fresh rose petals during this period included germany, pakistan, the united arab emirates, turkey, vietnam, kuwait, iraq, and spain. iran exported rose water to approximately 60 countries from 2012 to 2021. the top ten major importers of rose water from iran were found to be the united arab emirates, kuwait, bahrain, oman, qatar, iraq, france, saudi arabia, china, and afghanistan. the destination countries for rose water exports were categorized into five clusters. similarly, based on the results, the target countries for exports were prioritized in 5 clusters. according to irica statistics, iran exported rose essence to 17 countries worldwide during 2012-2021. the most important export markets for rose essence in terms of market size (average over the period) during the same period included hong kong, australia, china, germany, france, canada, spain, bulgaria, austria, and the united arab emirates.