بررسی عوامل موثر بر رشد اقتصادی ایران با رویکرد نرخ ارز و صادرات محصولات کشاورزی

هدف اصلی مطالعه حاضر بررسی عوامل موثر بر رشد اقتصادی با رویکرد نرخ ارز و صادرات (محصولات غیرنفتی از جمله محصولات کشاورزی) بود. بدین منظور، از یک مدل رشد اقتصادی مبتنی بر متغیرهای توضیحی مرسوم مانند رشد نیروی کار، رشد سرمایه فیزیکی ثابت و مدل رشد سولو (1956) و سرمایه انسانی بر اساس مدل رشد لوکاس (1988) با لحاظ کردن متغیر نرخ ارز واقعی استفاده شد. بازه زمانی مورد مطالعه بین سال‌های 1353 تا ‏1398‏ بود. همچنین، در مطالعه حاضر، از مدل اقتصادسنجی خودرگرسیون برداری (var) استفاده شد؛ بدین ترتیب، ابتدا با استفاده از آزمون دیکی- فولر، ایستایی متغیرها بررسی و نشان داده شد که تمام متغیرهای تحقیق در سطح . ایستایی دارند؛ همچنین، با استفاده از معیار شواترز، وقفه بهینه یک تعیین شد. در ادامه، سنجش روابط بلندمدت بین متغیرها با استفاده از آزمون جوهانسن صورت گرفت و مدل خودرگرسیون برداری با وقفه بهینه یک برازش شد. آنگاه تجزیه‌وتحلیل برآورد اثر تکانه (شوک) متغیر وابسته بر متغیرهای مستقل انجام پذیرفت؛ و سرانجام، با استفاده از تجزیه واریانس، آزمون میزان نوسان‏‌های متغیرها صورت گرفت. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده بیانگر تاثیرگذاری نرخ ارز و صادرات بر رشد اقتصاد ایران بود..

factors affecting iran’s economic growth with the approach of exchange rate and export of agricultural products

introduction: the development of export of non-oil products with relative advantage in the world markets is an inevitable requirement for iran. in other words, due to the strong dependence of the country’s economy on oil, on the one hand, and the instability and extreme fluctuations of oil prices in the world markets as well as due to the dominance of a multilateral monopoly market on it, on the other hand, many of the anomalies that govern this market have been transferred to the interior; and it makes the economic activities fluctuate according to the exchange rate. this study mainly aimed at investigating the factors affecting economic growth with the approach of exchange rate and export (non-oil products, including agricultural products). for this purpose, an economic growth model based on conventional explanatory variables such as labor force growth, fixed physical capital growth based on the solow growth model (1956) and human capital based on the lucas growth model (1988) were used. the real exchange rate was used with respect to the real exchange rate variable based on the study of tang (2015). the studied period was 1974-2019.materials and methods: the study also used vector auto-regression (var) econometric model so that firstly, dickey-fuller test was applied and the stationarity of the variables was investigated, indicating that all the studied variables including gross domestic product growth (gdp0), capital stock growth (k0), labor force growth (l), agricultural product export growth (ex) and exchange rate (exc) at level i_0 were stationary and using the schwartz criterion, the optimal interval of ‘one’ was determined. then, the long-term relationships between the variables were measured using the johanson test, and the model was fitted by the var method with an optimal interval of one. the results could be interpreted that basically, single equation methods were not important in the estimation of coefficients equations and the explanatory percentage of model parameters, and it was not expected that all the obtained coefficients related to the interval of variables were statistically significant, but it might be possible that the coefficients in total were significant based on the f statistic. in other words, in general, the f test statistics confirm the significance of the coefficients. also, following the estimation of the shock effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable, it was analyzed and finally, the fluctuation rate of the variables was tested using variance analysis.results and discussion: as shown by the results of previous concerned studies, there is a significant relationship between the exchange rate and the export and economic growth in the studied countries. therefore, the analysis of the influencing behavior of exchange rates and exports on economic growth has always attracted the attention of economic experts and policy makers to formulate the policies. in the opinion of most development scholars, the role of capital in the process of economic growth is fundamental, because in this process, the society faced the increase in population followed by an increase in the replacement of depreciated capital and maintaining the level of national income at the same level as the previous year, we still need some investment throughout the year.