یکپارچگی بازار و رهبری جهانی قیمت محصول ذرت

ایران، همه‌‏ساله، مقدار زیادی از ذرت مورد نیاز خود را از طریق واردات تامین می‌کند؛ و بر اثر همین موضوع، در کنار روند افزایشی وابستگی به ذرت، ایران به یکی از کشورهای واردکننده عمده ذرت در جهان تبدیل شده است. در مطالعه حاضر، با ارزیابی رفتار قیمتی ذرت در بازار کشورهای عمده تولیدکننده شامل برزیل، اوکراین، روسیه، هند، ایالات متحده آمریکا و آرژانتین، فرضیه یکپارچگی بازار ذرت بررسی شد و قانون قیمت واحد مورد آزمون قرار گرفت. داده‌های مورد استفاده به‏ صورت ماهانه و از مهر 1383 تا دی 1400 صورت گرفت. طبق نتایج به‏ دست‏‌آمده، مشخص شد که تجارت جهانی ذرت در یک بازار کاملاً یکپارچه شکل می‏‌گیرد و داده‌های هر بازار مانند علائم نوسان قیمت به یکدیگر منتقل می‌‏شود؛ همچنین، بازار جهانی ذرت از قانون قیمت واحد پیروی کرده و کالای هر بازار یک جانشین کامل برای بازار دیگر بوده است. افزون بر این، با آزمون رهبری قیمت، مشخص شد که ایالات متحده آمریکا، به ‏دلیل تولید و عرضه بالای ذرت، دارای نقش رهبری قیمت در بازار است و دیگر تولید‌کنندگان قیمت محصول خود را بر اساس قیمت کشف‏شده در بازار آمریکا تنظیم می‌کنند.

market integration and global leadership in corn prices

introduction: as one of the most important grains in the diet of humans and animals, corn is at the center of global food security all over the world, and as one of the most basic crops, it plays a strategic and important role in the food industry, livestock and poultry nutrition. every year, iran supplies a large amount of corn through imports, and this issue, along with the increasing trend of dependence on corn, has made the country as one of the major importers of corn in the world. considering the importance and position of corn in supplying iran’s food chain as well as the country ’s high dependence on corn imports from other countries and to maintaining the supply chain, given the influence of different corn markets on each other both in global and domestic dimensions, it is necessary to study the global corn market and the producers who are in charge of leading this market in order to plan the economic and sustainable import of corn needed by the country.materials and methods: in this paper, by studying the price behavior of corn in the market of corn producing countries in the world, including brazil, ukraine, russia, india, usa and argentina, the hypothesis of corn market integration and the law of one price (lop) were tested. the data used were monthly and from september 2004 to december 2021. in this research, the definition of price leadership proposed by seaton and waterson (2013) was used. according to this definition, a market leader first announces a price change and other suppliers accept and follow it. this definition is specially applied to the analysis of time series data and it allows applying cointegration techniques for non-stationary time series data.results and discussion: the study results showed that the global corn trade was formed in a fully integrated market and the data of each market like price fluctuation signals were transmitted to each other; in addition, the global corn market would follow the lop and the goods of each market were perfect would substitute for each other. the price leadership test also showed that the united states had a leading role in the market due to the high production and supply of corn, and other producers adjusted the price of their product based on the price discovered in the us market.conclusions: since the supply of strategic goods of iran is mainly the responsibility of the government, identifying the supply and pricing of corn in the world market can help policymakers in planning corn imports. considering the tension between russia and ukraine as the two largest producing countries and exporters of corn in the world as well as the tense relationship between iran and the united states of america, it is very important to know the performance of other competitive countries in the market and the possibility of replacing them in supplying the corn needed by iran. usually, third countries take advantage of these conditions in the form of an intermediary market, they tend to buy corn at the world price and sell it to the client countries at their desired price. the intensity of price transmission between markets may affect the response speed of food supply traders. therefore, it is necessary to develop an efficient marketing system in the supply and distribution of corn required by the domestic sector among consumers. according to the approved hypothesis of the corn lop, the goods of this market are completely substitutes for each other. therefore, in case of discovering the impact of corn price of the countries trading with iran on price shocks from the us, it is possible to import the country’s required corn at the right time and at the right price. it is also suggested that by making investments in increasing corn production in the country along with the dialogue between regional markets, especially india as one of the largest producers of corn and iran’s trading partner, which the cost of transporting the cargo purchased from it as an important and effective factor in the price is much lower than other exporters, there may be reduced the negative effects of market shocks when the price or corn supply shocks occur.