drug violence and migration flows: lessons from the mexican drug war

We examine the effect of the increase in violence that mexico experienced after launching an aggressive campaign against drug-trafficking organizations on immigration into the united states. we instrument for violence using electoral cycles and consider two channels through which violence impacts migration: local and transit violence. violence at the municipality of residence increased migration. conversely, violence on the route to the united states deterred individuals from migrating. back-ofthe- envelope calculations show that between 2007 and 2012, local and transit violence had an overall positive effect on migration. violence was responsible for a 1.53 percentage point increase in the migration rate.