شناسایی عوامل موثر بر آینده بیمه‌های اتومبیل ایران

پیشینه و اهداف: جوامع، سازمان ها و افراد نه تنها باید با تغییرات اساسی که محیط ایجاد می کند، رو به رو شوند و برای بقا به آنها واکنش نشان دهند، بلکه لازم است برای پیش دستی نسبت به آنها پیش بینی های خود را به عمل نزدیک نمایند و یا برای ایجاد تغییرات و ساخت آینده مطلوب تلاش نمایند. صنعت بیمه نیز از این مهم مستثنی نیست. هدف این پژوهش شناسایی روندها و رویدادهای موثر بر آینده بیمه های اتومبیل در ایران شامل موارد موثر بر فروش و پرداخت خسارت این رشته در بازه زمانی بین 5 تا 20 سال آینده بوده است.روش‌شناسی: این پژوهش توصیفی از نوع پیمایشی، با هدف کاربردی با رویکرد کیفی به روش تحلیل محتوا انجام شده و نتایج در قالب شبکه مضامین تحلیل شده اند. ضمناً به ‌منظور جمع آوری داده ها از مصاحبه عمیق نیمه ساختار یافته استفاده شده است.یافته‌ها: در این پژوهش با 19 نفر از خبرگان صنعت بیمه از طریق نمونه گیری گلوله برفی مصاحبه شده است. به منظور تحلیل محتوا دو ارزیاب با کمک نرم افزار مکس‌کیودی‌ای کدگذاری باز، مقوله بندی و استخراج مضامین را انجام داده اند؛ اعتبارپذیری، انتقال پذیری، تاییدپذیری و اعتمادپذیری تحت کنترل بوده است و پایایی کدگذاری از طریق کاپای کوهن که در مرحله آخر برابر با 0.954 شد اندازه گیری شده است. در مجموع عوامل شناسایی شده در چارچوب شش دسته مضمون فناورانه، سیاسی و قانونی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی، محیطی زیستی و کسب و کار دسته بندی شده اند. با توجه به ارزش مطالعات آینده پژوهی و عدم اجرای پژوهش های مشابه آن در کشور، نتایج آن به منظور سیاست گذاری ها در سطوح مختلف نهاد حاکمیتی، شرکت های بیمه و شبکه فروش ارزشمند خواهد بود.نتیجه‌گیری: بر اساس این بررسی، در مجموع 44 مقوله به عنوان عوامل موثر در قالب شش مضمون شناسایی شده است که آینده بیمه های اتومبیل در ایران را دستخوش تغییر خواهند کرد.

identification of the affecting factors on the future of auto insurance in iran

background and objectives: societies, organizations or individuals must not only face fundamental environmental changes and react to these changes, but also study the necessary forecasts to prepare for such events and strive to achieve a favorable future. insurance  industry also is not excluded from such predictions. the objective of this research is to identify and possible events for the future of auto insurance in iran, including those that have been for the sale and payment of this field between 5 and 20 years.methods: numerous studies have been conducted by theme analysis to identify factors or other objectives; however, there are few studies in the field of future insurance studies, especially auto insurance. many studies have analyzed the impact of future insurance trends in general, and some have focused on auto insurance in particular. their methods are mostly trend analysis and some scenario planning. however, these studies have focused on several influential factors and except for one study, none of the studies has focused on the comprehensive identification of factors affecting the future of auto insurance, except one, which it’s scope was global and not in iran.this research is descriptive and survey-type, with a practical purpose and a qualitative approach to content analysis. the results of this research have been analyzed in the form of a theme network. in addition, in order to collect data, a semi-structured in-depth interview was used.findings: in this research, 19 insurance industry experts were interviewed through snowball sampling. in order to analyze the content of the research, two evaluators were coordinated to carry out open coding, categorization and extraction of themes with the help of maxqda software. in this research, reliability, transferability, verifiability and reliability have always been under control, and coding reliability was measured through kappa cohen, which was equal to 0.954 in the last stage. in total, the identified factors were classified into six categories: technological, political and legal, economic, social, environmental, and business. in this analysis, the initial 142 open source code, which was limited to 107 open source code after the modifications, was assigned to 900 observation units, which were finally summarized in 44 categories and 6 themes. considering the value of future studies and the lack of implementation of similar studies in the country, the results which are remarkable, new and valuable, can be used for policy making at different levels of the governing systems, insurance companies and sales network.conclusion: based on this research, 44 categories were identified as disease factors, in the form of six themes, which have the ability to change the future of auto insurance in iran. the findings of this study can be used for policy-making, strategy planning, and investing in infrastructures, human capital studies etc. the results are displayed in the form of a network of themes. due to these findings, it is important to pay attention to issues related to information technology and the impact of automotive technologies in assessing the risk and damage of auto insurance. in addition, in future research, in order to focus on more important factors, it is possible to prioritize these factors and identify key drivers, and use them in order to visualize and scenario the future of auto insurance in iran.