اندازه‌گیری توسعه فراگیر در ایران (1395-1360)

مقدمه: مفهوم »توسعه فراگیر « با این هدف بسط یافته است تا تاکید ویژه‌ای بر جنبه‌های اجتماعی و سیاسی توسعه داشته باشد. در تبیین این مفهوم، مولفه نحوه توزیع مواهب توسعه بین بخشهای گوناگون جامعه، به‌ویژه گروههای محروم و اقلیتهای اجتماعی (مانند جوانان، زنان، اقلیتهای قومی، مذهبی و ...) در کانون توجه قرار می‌گیرد. هدف از مطالعه حاضر ارائه شاخصی برای ارزیابی فراگیر بودن توسعه در ایران در سالهای پس از انقلاب (1395-1360) است. روش: این مطالعه با استفاده از داده‌های آماری و برپایه روش ساخت شاخصهای ترکیبی، شاخص توسعه‌ای مرکب از 5 بعد و 10 مولفه را برای سنجش وضعیت فراگیر بودن توسعه در ایران تهیه کرده است. یافته‌ها: شاخص توسعه فراگیر طی بالغ بر سه دهه گذشته بهبود یافته، اما روند بهبود در یک دهه گذشته با شوکهای سختی روبه رو شده و هنوز به جایگاه قبلی باز نگشته است.بحث: تحقیق حاضر می‌تواند ناپایدار و برگشت‌پذیر بودن دستاوردهای توسعه‌ در کشور را نشان دهد. این نتایج همچنین حاکی از آن است که در یک دهه گذشته واگرایی میان روند رشد اقتصادی با سایر متغیرهای توسعه‌ای افزایش یافته و رشد اقتصادی به قیمت تخریب محیط زیست، کاهش همبستگی اجتماعی و تضییع حقوق نسلهای آتی و در کل کاهش فراگیری به‌دست آمده است. به نظر می‌رسد سیاست‌گذاران باید توجه جدی‌تری به تبعات اجتماعی و زیست‌محیطی سیاستهای توسعه‌ای داشته و همچنین اشتغال‌زایی و فقرزدایی را به محورهای اصلی طراحی استراتژی‌ رشد تبدیل کنند. دست آخر اینکه بهبود حکمرانی یک عنصر ضروری برای فراگیرتر کردن توسعه در ایران کنونی است.

Measuring Inclusive Development in Iran (1981-2016)

Introduction: The economics of development over the past few decades, along with efforts to achieve development, have also seen the expansion of its conceptual dimensions. In this context, the most important evolution may be to extend the concept of development from merely economic growth to a structural evolution, while improving both the income and nonincome dimensions of welfare, is sustainable and equitable. It is this profound understanding of the importance of justice and equality in the context of developmental changes that has now led to the introduction of the concept of #39;inclusive development #39; and the attention to the importance of inclusion in the development process.The inclusive development index is sensitive not only to improving the mean of multidimensional development achievements but also to the distribution of development benefits across different individuals, groups, and social dimensions, and efforts to assess the impact of development processes across different sectors of society.Method: In this study, the composite index approach was used to measure the state of inclusive development. To build this composite index, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, 2008) method has been used as a guide to construct composite indicators.In this study, five dimensions of African Development Bank (2016) were used to cover the dimensions of inclusive development. Also, these five dimensions are divided into ten components, namely improving economic welfare (including three components of economic growth, employment, and infrastructure), distributing economic welfare (including two components of poverty alleviation and reducing inequality), improvements in social welfare (including education, health and social cohesion), intergenerational welfare (including environmental protection), and political welfare (including the ability of citizens to voice and participate in government policy and decisionmaking).The present study has complemented the work of the African Development Bank (2016) with the following innovations: 1. Extending the scope of research time; 2. Changing index dimensions and intervention variables related to gender, youth and spatial distribution across all research components and dimensions; 3. Using Minimalmax approach to data normalization; and 4. Focusing on outcomes rather than processes. Global databases, Statistical Center databases, and central bank data were used to analyze the components of the research. Summarizing different data, a total of 116 variables were collected for the period. By eliminating variables with large numbers of missing data and eliminating variables with similar effects, twentyfour variables were finally obtained. In the calculations, these variables have been used to combine these variables with equal weight and arithmetic distribution. Dimensions, components and variables of the researchVariable ComponentDimensionDomestic Income Growth (Fixed Dollar 2010)GrowthEconomic (Opportunity)Per Capita Income Growth (Annual Percentage)Total Unemployment (Population 10 Years And Over)EmploymentParticipation RateAccident Rate Of Work To Major Insureds (Per 100 People)Per People Country RoadInfrastructure And Access To ItDistribution (Coefficient Of Variation) Of Roads In The CountryInflation IndexPoverty Economic (Opportunity Distribution)Ratio Of NonFood Costs (Except Health And Rent) To Food (Urban Areas)Dependency BurdenGini Coefficient (Central Bank)Income Inequality 10 % Share Of The Poorest To The Poorest 10% (Central Bank)Distribution (Coefficient Of Variation) Per Capita Of CinemasPer Capita Bed In The CountryHealthSocial Coefficient Of Variation (Dispersion) Of Gp In ProvincesStudent To Teachers Rates, ElementaryEducationStudent To Teacher Rate, SecondaryOf Murder (Per Capita Country - Per 100,000 Population)Social SolidaritySuicide (Per Capita - Per 100,000 People)Co2 EmissionsProtection Of The EnvironmentEnvironmentRangeland And Forest Fire Area (To All Areas Under The Supervision Of The Environment Agency)The Share Of Seats Occupied By Women In ParliamentGovernancePoliticalFreedom House IndexPolitical Situation The Status of Inclusive Development Index in Iran (19812016) Findings: The results show that the situation of inclusive development has improved during the period of 19812016. However, from inclusiveness perspective, the trend of index growth over the past decade has been hit with severe shocks and has not yet returned to its previous position. Also, only slightly more than half of the total achievements at the end of the period still existed, meaning that the development achievements of the study period are reversible, and these achievements cannot be regarded as sustained and continually improving all segments of society #39;s developmental benefits.Some of the annual index fluctuations are due to impermanent and transient changes. In order to avoid the influence of these fluctuations in the results, the present study uses fouryear cuts. It makes it possible to analyze trends in terms of political economy developments. The status of inclusive development subindicators The diagram above shows the status of the dimensions of inclusive development over four years (executive branch changes). The economic situation of Iran has been on the upswing in terms of improving economic opportunity creation. From the perspective of social variables, the index trend has not improved since the beginning of the period. Another important finding of the study is the identification of risky trends in sustainable development degradation. The process of environmental protection has been downward throughout the period. Finally, the overall trend in governance does not indicate an overall improvement in performance. Finally, it is necessary to measure the robustness of the results to the researcher #39;s choices in the research process. Different combinations of weighting and integration of variablesEqualityoriented scenarioGrowthoriented Scenario the current scenario Dimension0.20.50.3Creating economic opportunities (growth, employment, infrastructure)0.20.20.2The distribution of economic benefits (poverty alleviation, inequality reduction) 0.20.20.3Improving social welfare (health, education, social cohesion)0.20.050.1Stability0.20.050.1governanceAs shown in the table, the growthoriented scenario gives more weight to growth (growth along with employment) than other variables and places a low importance on sustainability and governance dimensions, while equalityoriented scenarios emphasize the same across sectors. . The trend of inclusive development index changes with component weights2013201620092012200520082001200419972000199319961989 19921985198819811984 10%10%9%5%6%12%0%7%8%Growthoriented Scenario7%3%2%3%5%1%4%2%2%Equalityoriented scenario Growthoriented scenario increases index estimation for recent periods. However, in the equalityoriented scenario, the index will be reduced by 7%. This result indicates that: First, the emphasis on growth will overestimate the overall development index. Secondly, the impact of weighting on results in recent times has increased more than in the past, as the emphasis on growth or other factors will make up to 20% of the difference in results. Therefore, conclusions in the area of ​​comprehensive development index should be cautious.Discussion: The results of this study show that the situation of inclusive development in Iran has improved during the study period (19812016). However, the development achievements of this period have not been sustainable and the process of improving overall development in Iran has been halted for the past decade. As research shows, it can be concluded that trends in the distribution of economic benefits (poverty alleviation and inequality reduction), social welfare (health, education, and social cohesion) and sustainability (environmental protection) have declined steadily over the past decade. Accordingly, the trends show a serious destruction of the environment and an increase in social problems. That is, economic growth has come at the expense of future generations rsquo; diminishing rights (diminishing intergenerational equality) and weakening social cohesion (diminishing social equality), which warns of the consequences of continuing this trend.Ethical considerationsFundsThis article is part of Dr. Hossein Rajabpour #39;s dissertation entitled Measuring Inclusive Development in Iran and the Government #39;s Impact on It (19812016) in the Department of Planning and economic development at the Faculty of Economics of Allameh Tabatab rsquo;ii University under the guidance of Dr. Farshad Momeni, Dr. Ali Nasiri Aghdam and Dr. Alireza Alavitabar.Contribution of authorsAll authors have contributed to the design, execution, and writing of all sections of this article.Conflict of interestAccording to the authors, there is no conflict of interest in this article.Adherence to the principles of research ethicsIn this article, all rights relating to references are cited and resources are carefully listed.