رابطه اعتماد اجتماعی با قصد و رفتار آمادگی شهروندان تهرانی در برابر زلزله

مقدمه: خطر بالای وقوع زلزله، شدت پیامدهای ناگوار آن و ناموفق بودن سیاستهای مربوط به کاهش خسارتها و افزایش آمادگی جوامع آسیب پذیر در برابر این مخاطره، نشان می دهد که باید نقش و تاثیر بستر اجتماعی را در گروه های در معرض خطر، بیشتر موردبررسی قرار داد. در سالهای اخیر، اعتماد اجتماعی را به عنوان یکی از عوامل مهم و موثر بر رفتارهای مردم در جامعه تلقی کرده اند. این مطالعه با هدف بررسی رابطه میان اعتماد اجتماعی با قصد و رفتار آمادگی مردم تهران در برابر زلزله انجام شده است.روش: این پژوهش، یک مطالعه مقطعی با مشارکت 369 خانوار تهرانی (96-1395) به روش نمونه گیری تصادفی طبقه بندی شده از مناطق منتخب شهر تهران بوده است. از نسخه فارسی دارای اعتبار و روایی مناسب پرسشنامه آمادگی عمومی در برابر زلزله و چک لیست استاندارد رفتارهای آمادگی در برابر زلزله برای گردآوری داده ها استفاده شد.یافته ها: نتایج تحلیل رگرسیون خطی چندمتغیره نشان داد که اعتماد اجتماعی مهم ترین عامل پیش بینی کننده تغییرات قصد آمادگی و قصد آمادگی واسطه میان ارتباط اعتماد اجتماعی با رفتارهای واقعی آمادگی در مردم تهران است.بحث: تغییر دادن رفتار آمادگی در برابر زلزله با توجه هم زمان به ویژگیهای فردی و روابط موجود در شبکه های اجتماعی اعضای جامعه امکان پذیر است؛ بنابراین، یکی از راههای موثر در جهت افزایش مطلوب قصد و رفتار آمادگی مردم در برابر زلزله، ارتقای سطح اعتماد در جامعه است.

The Relationship of Social Trust with the Intention to Prepare and Preparedness Behavior of Tehran Inhabitants agains‌t Earthquake

Introduction: The high risk of earthquake, the severity of its adverse consequences and the failure of the exis ting policies to reduce damage and increase the preparedness of vulnerable communities, show that s tudying the role and impact of the social context on the mos t vulnerable groups is essential. The geographic condition of Tehran makes the city highly prone to the occurrence of various types of disas ters, especially the risk of a massive earthquake. Besides, the crisis management requirements and the lack of public preparedness if such events happen, reveal the need to find the factors that can influence the process of converting people rsquo;s readiness to the actual preparedness behaviors to make them able of coping with such a large degree of risk. Trus t is a process in which people may disregard their responsibilities to deal with a complex, uncertain situation and delegate it to others. People sometimes make their trus t on the basis of the meanings and values that exis t between them and the authorities, and decide on it. In recent years, social trus t has been considered as one of the mos t important and influential factors in public behaviors. The purpose of this s tudy was to inves tigate the relationship between social trus t and intention to prepare and preparedness of Tehran inhabitants agains t earthquakes.Method: This research was a crosssectional analytical s tudy. 369 households in Tehran (FebruaryMay 2017) were interviewed and filled the ques tionnaire through the home visits by the research team in person. We used s tratified random sampling to choose the participants from the selected area of the urban regions. Different levels of urban development, social welfare and earthquake vulnerability classification of 22 dis tricts of the city were considered to involve the mos t possible variety of the households living in the area.The Persian version the general preparation ques tionnaire (with 77 items) which has suitable reliability and the s tandard checklis t of earthquake preparedness behaviors (with 1 items) were used to collect data.Both ins truments were validated in previous s tudies in Iran.Finding: The mean age of the participants was 34 years. Mos t of them were men (63%), undergraduated (71%), married (62%), tenant of the house they were living (69%), selfemployed (38%) or had short time job contracts (32%) and experienced at leas t one earthquake in the pas t (68%). About 75 percent of the participants were living in small households with less than four members. Almos t all of the s tudy samples (96%) were from low income level. The results of multivariate linear regression analysis showed that social trus t was the mos t important factor (p<0.001) that could predict the changes in intention of preparation in a positive relation. Therefore, the intention of preparation could be improved through enhancing the social trus t among the communities. The intention to preparation acts as a complete mediating factor in the relation between social trus t and real preparedness behaviors of the households in Tehran. The participants rsquo; ages and the region that the household lived, found to be as the other influencing factors on intention to prepare agains t earthquake. The pas t experience of earthquakes and income level could predict the preparedness behaviors while the size of household showed a negative relationship with them. Despite the previous research findings, the ownership of the house, the marriage s tatus and occupation situation had no significant relationship with any of the preparedness dimensions.Discussion: Intention to prepare is the mos t significant predictor of changing the preparedness behavior in Tehran inhabitants, which was influenced by their monthly income and pas t experiences of the earthquake. Social trus t was the mos t important factor that could predict the changes of intention to prepare if considering the age of the people and the vulnerability of the place they live. Whereas, the older people who were living in less vulnerable area, showed more social trus t and intention to prepare agains t earthquake. It is possible to change the preparedness behavior agains t earthquake in general public if the individual characteris tics and the relationships in social networks of society members will be considered altogether. Therefore, it is essential to raise the level of social trus t in the society in order to increase the public intention to prepare and the preparedness behavior in a favorable way. In comparison with the previous s tudies, the present findings showed that improving the general trus t and the trus t to the information resources and the information providers can significantly increase the public intention to prepare in the societies. While, the excessive community trus t towards the emergency authorities and to the government may reduce this intention among the people. This is argued that they will probably delegate all of their own responsibilities regarding the preparedness agains t earthquake to the reliable organizations. As if the trus t in general that is related to the natural hazards operates as an intermediate agent between individuals, societies and social factors in order to formulate a willingness to prepare agains t these events.