An Estimation of Drug-Related Deaths in Iran, Using the Capture-Recapture Method (2014-2016)

Background: the ministry of health and medical education (mohme) and the legal medicine organization (lmo) are the 2 death registration systems in iran for registering drug-related deaths. the aim of the present study was to assess the number of undercount and the overlap between the deaths registered by the 2 sources. methods: in this descriptive study, according to the 10th revision of the international classification of diseases (icd-10), the registered data on drug-related deaths in the years 2014-2016, as recorded by the mohme and the lmo, were collected and the number of deaths was estimated using 2-source capture-recapture method and excel and spss software. findings: the total number of drug-related deaths, as registered by the 2 sources, was 8639 during the 3 years. a major part of the drug-related deaths (75% of the data) had been registered by the lmo and only 25% of deaths had been registered by the mohme. there was also a small overlap (7.7% of deaths) between the data from the 2 sources. the final estimation from the capture-recapture model and analysis of sensitivity showed that, during the 3 years, the total number of drug-related deaths was 14517 [95% confidence interval (ci):14498-14558]. based on the complete overlap assumption and 50% of unidentified individuals in the 2 sources, the number of deaths was estimated at 11341 and 12418, respectively. the largest number of drug-related deaths had occurred within the age range of 25-39 years and in men. kermanshah, hamedan, and zanjan provinces (iran) had the largest number of cumulative incidences of drug-related deaths. based on the data provided by the mohme, the most common cause of death was methadone poisoning. conclusion: there was a small overlap between the mohme and the lmo in the registration of drug-related deaths. failure to enter accurate and correct information has led to miscalculations of these deaths in iran.