نقش غرب در بحران‌های 2014 و 2022 اوکراین و طولانی ‌شدن آن‌ها

از زمان رخداد بحران 2014 و حملۀ نظامی روسیه به اوکراین در 24 فوریۀ 2022، پژوهشگران تلاش کرده‌اند دلایل ایجاد این بحران‌ها را واکاوی کنند و به نتایج متفاوتی دست‌یافته‌اند. گروهی علت شکل‌گیری بحران‌های 2014 و 2022 اوکراین را تلاش روسیه برای جلوگیری از گسترش اتحادیۀ اروپا و ناتو و هم‌مرزشدن آن‌ها با این کشور دانسته‌اند. گروهی دیگر، علت ایجاد این بحران‌ها را به تمایل روسیه به قدرت‌یابی و بازگشت به بزرگی دوران شوروی و سیاست‌های غرب‌گرایانۀ اوکراین مربوط دانسته‌اند. در این نوشتار می‌خواهیم از دیدگاهی دیگر به این پرسش پاسخ دهیم. هدف اصلی این نوشتار، یافتن پاسخ این پرسش‌ است که غرب چه نقشی در ایجاد بحران‌های 2014 و 2022 اوکراین و طولانی‌شدن آن‌ها داشته است؟ در پاسخ، این فرضیه مطرح می‌شود که غرب با سه راهبرد طعمه‌گذاری، موازنه‌سازی و مداخله‌های جانبدارانه زمینه را برای ایجاد بحران‌های 2014 و 2022 اوکراین و طولانی‌شدن آن‌ها فراهم کرده است، تا از این راه از قدرت‌یابی روسیه جلوگیری کند. یافته‌های نویسندگان نشان می‌دهد که اوکراین همواره از زمان استقلال، ابزاری در دست غرب بوده است تا با استفاده از آن روسیه را تضعیف کند و برای رسیدن به این هدف از سه راهبرد طعمه‌گذاری، موازنه‌سازی و مداخله‌جویی هدفمند استفاده ‌شده است. در این نوشتار از روش کیفی مطالعۀ موردی چندگانه بهره گرفته‌ایم. داده‌ها نیز به با استفاده از منابع کتابخانه‌ای گردآوری و با رویکردی توصیفی‌تحلیلی در بستر نظریۀ واقع‌گرایی تهاجمی تجزیه‌وتحلیل شده است.

the west’s role in the 2014 and 2022 ukrainian crises and their prolongation

introduction: researchers have divided the cause of the 2014 and 2022 crises in ukraine into three categories. some have attributed the 2014 and 2022 crises in ukraine to russia’s efforts to prevent the expansion of the european union and nato and the bordering of these institutions with this country and another group links the cause of these crises to russia’s desire to gain power and return to the greatness of soviet era, as well as ukraine’s western policies. but from the authors’ perspective, the cause of these crises should also be examined from another perspective, which is the role of the west in the emergence of these crises and their prolongation. accordingly, this article attempts to analyze the west’s role in the occurrence of the 2014 and 2022 crises in ukraine and their prolongation, using the propositions of the theory of offensive realism.research question: what role did the west play in the outbreak and prolongation of the 2014 and 2022 crises in ukraine?research hypothesis: the research hypothesis is because the west, through three strategies of baiting, balancing, interventon, prepared the ground for the 2014 and 2022 crises in ukraine and their prolongation in order to prevent russia from gaining power.methodology and theoretical framework: a qualitative multiple case study method was used to answer the research question and test the hypothesis. the data was collected using a library resource and analyzed using a descriptive-analytical approach within the  framework of the theory of offensive realism.results and discussion: the results indicated that the diferent strategies have been used by west to prevent russian from prolonging presence of russia on ukrain territory and impact the sitiation. however, sofar results are not in faveore west and russia has upper hand in ukrain. of course, the futre of ukrain crisis is not so clear and has comelications for both sides. in fact, ukraine has effectively played the role of two poles of power, a victim of the competition between russia and the west and a prey and tool for the west’s goals against russia.conclusion: according to the propositions of offensive realism, achieving a position of hegemony is the goal of great powers. great powers always try to become hegemon by increasing their power and when they become hegemons, they use various strategies to increase their power and manage and control their rivals to prevent the hegemony of other powers. in fact, the west has always tried to take full advantage of the country’s desire to get closer to the west by inciting and encouraging ukrainian officials to join western institutions in line with its strategic goal of expanding its sphere of influence in eastern europe, and geopolitically encircling russia, in this regard ukraine has been a tool in the hands of the west to use this country’s card to counter its traditional threat. therefore, after independence, this country has always been the scene of competition between the west and russia and has witnessed serious conflicts and various political-security crises.