سیاست جمهوری اسلامی ایران در مورد قرقیزستان، راهبردهای کنونی، سناریوهای آینده

فروپاشی اتحاد شوروی و استقلال کشورهای آسیای مرکزی، موجب تکاپوی دستگاه سیاست خارجی ایران و دیگر کشورها برای حضور در این منطقه شد. سیاست خارجی قرقیزستان «چندبعدی» یا «چندبرداری» است که بر تحکیم روابط خارجی انعطاف‏‌پذیر و چندجانبه با کشورهای همسایه و بازیگران منطقه متمرکز است. قرقیزستان تنها کشور آسیای مرکزی است که با ایران توافق‌نامۀ همکاری‌ همه ‌جانبۀ ده ساله امضا کرده است. با توجه به این موضوع، در این نوشتار با دنبال ‌کردن رویکردی «آینده‌پژوهانه» تلاش می‌کنیم، سیاست خارجی ایران در این کشور را تحلیل کنیم و به این پرسش پاسخ دهیم که راهبردهای کنونی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در قرقیزستان کدامند و کدام سناریوهای محتمل و مطلوب برای آیندۀ سیاست خارجی ایران در این کشور قابل طرح است؟ یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد هرچند که سیاست خارجی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در قالب سناریوهای خوشبینانه تحلیل‌پذیر است، دیگر سناریوهای احتمالی و بدبینانه نیز قابل طرح هستند. سرانجام می‌توان ادعا کرد که با وجود آینده محور بودن، روابط دو کشور حکایت از روابطی کم ‌رونق دارد که احتمال رخداد سناریوهای مطلوب سیاست خارجی ایران در این کشور را کاهش می‌دهد و تا رسیدن به وضعیت ایده‌آل راه زیادی در پیش خواهد بود. روش گردآوری اطلاعات این نوشتار اسنادی‌کتابخانه‌ای است.

the foreign policy of the islamic republic of iran towards kyrgyzstan, current strategies, future scenarios

introduction: foreign policy is a complex subject in the field of international relations, which is included in the sub-branch of foreign policy analysis . it is strongly influenced by both domestic and international factors. the decision-making process for foreign policy requires careful consideration of domestic and foreign considerations. therefore, it is important to use theories and models to analyze and review the foreign policies of countries, considering the internal and external environments. the collapse of the soviet union and the formation of new republics created a competitive atmosphere in central asia. the islamic republic of iran has been active in the current developments in central asia and was one of the first countries to officially recognize the independence of kyrgyzstan on december 21, 1991. through bilateral relations and regional cooperation, iran has tried to strengthen cooperation with kyrgyzstan in various fields, including politics, economics, culture, science and technology. to achieve this goal, iran has adopted various foreign policy strategies towards the kyrgyz republic. the purpose of this research is to analyze the current foreign policy strategies of the islamic republic of iran towards kyrgyzstan and to present potential scenarios for iran’s foreign policy in this country.research question: the purpose of this research is to answer the following questions: what is iran’s foreign policy strategy in kyrgyzstan? what are the strengths and weaknesses of these strategies?research hypothesis: the proposed hypothesis is that iran’s foreign policy strategies towards kyrgyzstan have not been successful and dynamic due to the country’s internal strengths and environmental opportunities. methodology: the current research has been carried out with the aim of analyzing the present and past strategies of the islamic republic of iran in kyrgyzstan by compiling a conceptual model influenced by approaches of foreign policy analysis and its governing principles.  this will be followed by a forward-looking approach to create potential and favorable scenarios for the islamic republic of iran in this country. the research conceptual model will include two strategic management models, namely swat and postel, as research techniques. the research approach will be a  futuristic approach with focusing on scenarios. the main advantage of this conceptual model is its ability to simultaneously consider the micro, macro and moderate levels and at the same time use a prospective approach to analyze the foreign policy of the islamic republic of iran in kyrgyzstan.results and discussion: based on the drivers, trends, events and images, the following scenarios can be envisioned for iran’s foreign policy in kyrgyzstan: the first scenario: the o-surprise scenario: possible revision: one of the most likely scenarios of iran’s foreign policy in kyrgyzstan is the continuation of current trends without major changes. this scenario is included in the category of static scenarios and involves maintaining the current level of bilateral relations.the second scenario can be called  the most likely optimal or the optimistic scenario: this scenario predicts that with the implementation of a ten-year comprehensive agreement between the two countries and the exploitation of many mines, the country’s  tourism and hydropower  potential will increase, strengthening the  communication corridors, the benefits of the country’s membership in the eurasian economic union ( eeu ) in relation to iran as well as iran’s permanent membership in the shanghai organization, the political, economic and cultural relations between the two countries will be promoted to the favorable level.