تحریم‌های انرژی اتحادیۀ اروپا علیه فدراسیون روسیه و تاثیر آن بر نظام تجاری جاری میان دوطرف (2022-2024)

تهاجم روسیه به اوکراین در فوریۀ 2022، سبب اعمال مجموعه‌ای از تحریم‌ها توسط اتحادیۀ اروپا و دیگر بازیگرانی که گروه‌ بندی کشورهای ائتلاف تحریم علیه روسیه خوانده ‌می‌شوند، شده ‌است. این تحریم‌ها دربردارندۀ جنبه های فردی، مالی و تجاری است. در این‌‌میان در ‌مورد تحریم‌های انرژی اتحادیۀ اروپا، دو ملاحظۀ اساسی وجود دارد: نخست، به دلیل سطح بالای وابستگی متقابل میان دو طرف، تاثیر تحریم‌های اروپایی بسیار زیاد بوده است. دوم، تحریم بخش انرژی با توجه به حساسیت بالای کشورهای اروپایی و تجربۀ تحریم‌های 2014 بسیار دور از ذهن به‌نظر می‌رسید. باتوجه به این توضیح، هدف این مقاله پاسخ به این پرسش است که: تحریم بخش انرژی روسیه توسط اتحادیۀ اروپا چگونه بر نظام تجاری دو طرف و به‌ویژه روسیه، تاثیر راهبردی بر جای گذاشته ‌است. در پاسخ می‌توان این فرضیه را طرح ‌کرد که، تحریم سه بخش نفت، گاز و زغال سنگ روسیه توسط اتحادیۀاروپا، سبب تحول بنیادین در الگوی زنجیرۀ عرضۀ جهانی، برای هر دو طرف شده ‌است و در نتیجۀ آن نظام تجاری جدیدی شکل‌ گرفته ‌است. برای آزمون این فرضیه از روش پنج‌عاملی دیوید پورتر بهره گرفته ‌شده ‌است. تحریم‌ها نیز با چارچوب مفهومی سیستمی، مورد تحلیل قرار‌ گرفته‌اند. دستاوردهای پژوهش نشان ‌می‌دهد که: نخست، تحریم‌های اروپایی در این‌ بخش در کوتاه‌مدت و میان‌مدت کارایی لازم را نداشته ‌است، اما در بلند‌مدت سبب تحول صنعت انرژی خواهد ‌شد. دوم، تغییر راهبردی تجاری برآیند این تحریم‌ها در دو‌ محور نیروهای افقی و عمودی به‌روشنی دیده‌ می‌شوند.

european union energy sanctions against russian federation and its impact on their trade system (2022-2024)

introduction: the european union’s (eu) imposition of sanctions on russia’s oil, gas, and coal sectors following the 2022 ukraine invasion represents a significant geopolitical and economic event. these sanctions are designed to limit russia’s ability to finance its military actions through energy exports, while simultaneously attempting to safeguard europe’s energy security. given the pivotal role of energy in both economic stability and geopolitical strategy, the impact of these sanctions warrants a comprehensive analysis. this paper seeks to explore the strategic commercial implications of these sanctions on the global energy market, particularly focusing on russia and the eu. the central issue addressed in this research is how the eu’s sanctions on russia’s oil, gas, and coal sectors have strategically impacted the commercial dynamics between the two parties, with a particular emphasis on russia. the sanctions aim to curtail russia’s revenue from these critical energy exports, which are crucial for its economy. however, these sanctions also have the potential to disrupt the global energy market, influencing prices, supply routes, and geopolitical alliances.research question: how have the eu’s sanctions on russia’s oil, gas, and coal sectors strategically impacted the commercial system between the two parties, particularly for russia?research hypothesis: the eu’s sanctions on russia’s oil, gas, and coal sectors have fundamentally transformed the global supply chain patterns for both parties, resulting in the emergence of a new commercial system.methodology and theoretical framework: this research adopts a qualitative approach to evaluate the impact of the sanctions. the method of research employed include porter’s five factors analysis.  this model provides a comprehensive tool to analyze the competitive dynamics within the energy market, focusing on the bargaining power of suppliers and buyers, the threat of new entrants and substitutes, and the intensity of competitive rivalry. theoretical frameworks employed include porter’s five forces and systems theory to analyze the competitive and systemic changes in the energy market. this theory views the energy market as a complex system composed of interconnected and interdependent components, including producers, consumers, and regulatory bodies. the imposition of sanctions is seen as a systemic shock that reverberates through the entire market, affecting various elements in multifaceted ways.results and discussion: the eu’s sanctions have significantly curtailed russian energy exports to europe, forcing russia to seek alternative markets, particularly in asia. this shift has not fully compensated for the loss of the european market, leading to a substantial decrease in russia’s energy revenues. the eu has accelerated efforts to diversify its energy sources, reducing dependence on russian oil, gas, and coal. this includes increased imports from the united states, the middle east, and africa, as well as a push towards renewable energy sources and liquefied natural gas (lng) infrastructure. the sanctions have contributed to increased volatility in global energy markets, with fluctuations in oil, gas, and coal prices driven by uncertainties in supply and demand. the reconfiguration of supply chains has also introduced logistical challenges and higher transportation costs. countries like the united states, qatar, and norway have seen an increase in their bargaining power as europe seeks alternative suppliers. these countries have leveraged the situation to negotiate more favorable terms and expand their market presence in europe. the eu has intensified its investment in renewable energy technologies, viewing the sanctions as an impetus to accelerate the transition to a more sustainable energy system. this includes funding for wind, solar, and hydrogen projects, as well as research into energy storage solutions.