الگوی مدیریت اختلاف‌‌های قدرت‌های بزرگ در قرن بیست‌ویکم: از موازنۀ ‌‌قوای مشارکتی تا موازنۀ ‌قوای رقابتی

کنسرت قوا به‌دلیل نقشی که در حفظ صلح و دوری از جنگ میان قدرت‌های بزرگ اروپایی در قرن نوزدهم داشت، همواره به‌عنوان روشی جذاب در حکمرانی جهانی مطرح بوده است. در قرن بیست‌ویکم، بروز برخی از مشکلات و تنش‌ میان قدرت‌های بزرگ و به‌ویژه بحران و جنگ اوکراین در سال‌های 2014 و 2022، تغییرهای ساختاری و هنجاری در نظام بین‌الملل، مشکلات ‌محیط زیستی و مانند آن، موجب شد برخی پژوهشگران دوباره به این روش حکمرانی توجه کنند. در این نوشتار با روش پژوهش کیفی و با کمک نمونه‌پژوهی، با استفاده از منابع کتابخانه‌ای و همچنین رویکرد نظری موازنۀ قوای رقابتی و مشارکتی هدلی بول و دیدگاه بنجامین میلر، به‌دنبال پاسخ این پرسش هستیم که پس از بحران و جنگ اوکراین برای مدیریت تنش و اختلاف در میان قدرت‌های بزرگ، می‌توان امکانی برای تشکیل کنسرت قوا مانند قرن نوزدهم تصور کرد؟ در پاسخ این فرضیه مطرح می‌شود که دلایل ساختاری، هنجاری، ایدئولوژیک، شناختی، برداشت‌ها و جهان‌بینی‌های متعارض هرکدام از طرف‌ها و بی‌توجهی به حوزۀ نفوذ، امکان اندکی برای موازنۀ ‌قوای مشارکتی(کنسرت قوا) گذاشته است. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که بعد از تهاجم روسیه به اوکراین در سال 2022، با بازگشت رقابت‌های ژئوپلیتیکی و حاکم‌شدن فضای واقع‌گرایی، موازنۀ ‌قوای رقابتی، الگوی کنونی حاکم در نظام بین‌الملل در میان قدرت‌های بزرگ و به‌ویژه در میان روسیه، چین و آمریکا شده است. بر این اساس، امکان تشکیل کنسرت قوای مشارکتی مانند قرن نوزدهم، واقع‌بینانه به‌نظر نمی‌رسد.

models for managing tension among great powers in 21st century: from associational balance to adversarial balance

intruduction: in the first half of the 21st century the international community has witnessed many changes. following the changes in the structure of the international order and the distribution of power, the world is not a unipolar system led by the united states, unlike the post-cold war era. in addition, there are growing tensions, some hidden and some overt, among the great powers that are manifesting in the geopolitical and normative sphears. these topics, that range from changing power dynamics, the emergance of new state actors in the international community, environmental concerns, organized crime, immigrant issues, cyber warfare, the tensions over the south china sea, taiwan, the ukraine crisis, nato expansion, among others, if it is not solved, it can be a danger for the future of the mankind. therefore, the management of differences between great powers including russia, china, the us, india, japan, germany, france, and england is recommended to avoid. to move towards this goal, the concert of powers in the 19th century has been the theme. this literature attempts to assess the probability of a true concert of powers in the 21st century as a way to manage competition between the united states, china and russia, especially after the ukraine crisis in 2014 and 2022.research question: the main question is that, after the ukraine crisis, to manage the tension and differences between great powers, can we imagine the possibility of forming a concert of powers like in the 19th century?research hypothesis: inspired by the works of the thinkers of the islamic republic and using the balance of hostile power and management found in the works headley bull and benjamin miller, it can be suggested that the current differences in the structural, normative, ideological and cognitive views of the united states, china and russia toward global governance make the formation of a concert of powers simply impossible.methodology and theoretical framework: this paper has a qualitative approach and uses sample research as one of the common approaches in the islamic republic of iran. to dig deeper, the history of concert of powers was examined to ensure the possibility of an emerging concert or lack thereof, was closer to today’s reality. in addition, to achieve a model of how china, russia and the united states commit to or hinder the formation of a concert of powers, the elements that make a concert of powers possible were analyzed. the concert of powers is a collective security system or a security regime that was formed based on the cooperation between the four great powers of the 19th century, great britain, prussia, austria, and russia. headley bull, in the anarchic society, wrote that in the 19th century, there was an international society and international relations as an order in which the managerial responsibilities of the great powers constituted the system. despite the element of cooperation, a certain type of balance of power determines how international relations work. it is called the associational balance of power. it became the enemy’s balance of power due to constant pressure to increase power. in addition to bull’s view, miller added that internal issues, ideological and cognitive factors may be equally important in concert formation. this literature is in theoritically based on the views of the two thinkers mentioned above.results and discussion: this research has indicated that the international relations have had 3 separate cases of power coordination.