آیین وطن آبی ترکیه و پیامدهای آن برای ایران

آیین وطن آبی را نخستین‌‌‌‌‌‌‌بار در سال 2006 جم گوردنیز، نظامی بازنشستۀ نیروی دریایی ترکیه مطرح کرد، اما توجه چندانی را به خود جلب نکرد. اما در سال‌های اخیر با توجه به نیازهای جدید و تغییرهای ایجادشده در سیاست خارجی ترکیه، وطن آبی توانسته جنبۀ عملی‌تری به خود بگیرد. در این نوشتار به‌دنبال پاسخ این پرسش هستیم که: وطن آبی با توجه به پیشینه و هدف‌هایش چه پیامدهایی برای ایران می تواند داشته باشد؟ پس از بررسی پیشینۀ پژوهش و با استفاده از روش روندپژوهی و همچنین خوانشی نوین از ژئوپلیتیک، می‌کوشیم به این پرسش پاسخ دهیم. گسترش حضور در شرق مدیترانه به همراه استفاده از همۀ امکانات موجود در این منطقه، بهره‌برداری از منابع انرژی حوزۀ لوانت و تبدیل‌شدن ترکیه به هاب انرژی و مسیر حمل‌ونقل از هدف‌های اصلی وطن آبی است. با توجه به این هدف‌ها پیامدهای این آیین برای ایران را می‌توان در دو حوزه در نظر گرفت. در حوزۀ سیاسی و نظامی افزایش حضور ترکیه در شرق مدیترانه به‌ویژه در لبنان می‌تواند تنش‌ها میان دو کشور را افزایش دهد که با توجه به تعدد و پیوستگی نقاط تقابل ترکیه و ایران در منطقه، درگیری‌ها به‌راحتی می‌تواند به نقاط دیگر سرریز کند یا از آن‌ها تاثیر پذیرد. در حوزۀ انرژی نیز تبدیل ترکیه به هاب انرژی، هم می‌تواند فرصتی برای صادرات گاز ایران به اروپا باشد و هم می‌تواند سبب حذف این کشور از راه‌گذرهای بین‌المللی آینده شود.

turkiye’s blue homeland doctrine and its consequences for iran

introduction: on november 29, 2020, turkiye sent an exploratory ship named oruç reis to the eastern mediterranean waters to search for energy sources. although the activities of this ship provoked protests from many countries in the region, these protests could not prevent the extension of its mission until january 2021. analysts believe that the oruç reis mission, like the 2019 agreement between turkiye and the libyan government regarding the determination of the exclusive and economic zone of the two countries, is a continuation of turkiye’s new maritime doctrine blue homeland , which has been widely discussed in the media and political circles of turkiye in recent months. the blue homeland doctrine was first proposed in 2006 by retired turkish navy general cem gordeniz, but it failed to attract much attention. but in recent years, due to the new needs and changes in turkiye’s foreign policy, the blue homeland doctrine has been able to take on a more practical aspect.  in the following article, after examining the background of the research and using the trend impact analysis method and a new reading of geopolitics, we have tried to answer our question.research question: the question that we will address in this article is what consequences the blue homeland doctrine have for iran considering its history and goals? especially since the issue of obtaining hydrocarbon energies in the eastern mediterranean and the expansion of political and military influence is one of the main issues raised in the blue homeland doctrine and at the same time is one of the most important concerns of the turkish government. meanwhile, iran, as turkiye’s neighbor, is one of the countries with large energy reserves.research hypothesis: according to the methodology used for this article, no hypothesis has been considered.methodology and theoretical framework: the analysis of the current article is based on the trend impact analysis method. the trend is called regular and continuous transformations of data over time. in this method, the process is influenced by a sequence of events, and by events we mean important events that may play an important role in shaping the future. the theoretical framework of this article is based on a three-level reading of the international system along with geopolitical factors. this new reading of geopolitics is taken from the opinion of mohiuddin mesbahi in the article free and confined: iran and the international system . in this article, the emphasis is on geopolitics and geoeconomics, and the field of geoculture is not discussed. our question can also be put in this new format and reading.results and discussion: in this article, in response to the question of, the consequences of the blue homeland doctrine on iran, we tried to investigate the origins and history of this doctrine and search for its goals. as we said, the blue homeland doctrine is rooted in the feeling of greatness of this country due to years of presence in the mediterranean in the form of the ottoman empire, as well as the fear of being encircled in the region following the borders imposed in 1923. through this doctrine, turkiye seeks to be able to use the energy resources of the levant region and become a mediterranean power, with a powerful military and economic presence and use all its facilities in the eastern mediterranean to introduce itself as an energy hub. after examining the origins and goals, we examined the main part of our question, the consequences of the blue homeland doctrine on iran and divided these consequences into two political-military and energy sectors.