تحولات داخلی افغانستان و تغییر در راهبرد سیاست خارجی آمریکا

«راهبرد ضدتروریسم» بوش، «راهبرد ضدشورش» اوباما و «راهبرد صفرپایه» ترامپ سه راهبرد جداگانۀ دولت آمریکا در سه دورۀ ریاست‌جمهوری در افغانستان است که سرانجام با خروج نیروهای آمریکایی، به پذیرش قدرت همان گروهی منجر شد که 20 سال پیش در سال 2011 با هدف نابودی دولت طالبان به روند حضور شکل داد. در این نوشتار ضمن تلاش برای ارائۀ شواهد تاییدکنندۀ این تغییر راهبرد و تعارض آن با راهبردی کلان و با کانون‌بودن یکی از سطح‌های تحلیل نظریۀ روزنا که تمرکز خود را به تحولات محیط داخلی افغانستان قرار می‌دهد؛ به‌دنبال پاسخ این پرسش هستیم که شواهد تغییر در رویکرد سیاست خارجی آمریکا پیرامون افغانستان در سه دوره یادشده کدامند و چه رابطه‌ای میان تحولات داخلی افغانستان با این تغییرها وجود دارد؟ در پاسخ این فرضیه مطرح می‌شود که نقش گروه‌های معارض داخلی و قدرت‌یابی آن‌ها در این سه دوره مهم‌ترین عامل ایجاد تغییر رویکرد سیاست خارجی آمریکا در دوران بوش، اوباما و ترامپ است. یافته‌های این نوشتار با توجه به اسناد بالادستی آمریکا نشان می‌دهند که پیگیری راهبردهای متعارض با اهداف اولیه ناشی از شکست راهبردی در سیاست خارجی آمریکا در برابر اقدام‌های گروه‌های مسلح مانند طالبان ، قدرت‌یابی آن‌ها و هزینه‌ های روزافزون بوده است. با توجه به رویکرد بررسی مقایسه‌ای و تمرکز بر مرحلۀ توصیفی آن، روش مورد استفاده در این نوشتار کیفی و از نوع مقایسه‌ای است.

afghanistan’s iinternal developments and the change in the us foreign policy strategy

introduction: in addition to the main and announced goals of the us government for attacking afghanistan, including: the destruction of the taliban and al-qaeda network, advancing the process of democratization and nation-state building, strengthening the governmental and political structure, creating stability and security, there were other goals on the agenda, the most important of which was access to important mineral resources and energy transfer routes from central asia to south asia, preventing russia from regaining power and controlling china and iran. it is obvious that the achievement of the above-mentioned goals by the united states required the existence of a grand strategy in the foreign policy of this country regarding the issue of afghanistan. meanwhile, a review of the actions and approaches announced and implemented by the american government during the three terms of the presidency of george bush, barack obama and donald trump, clearly confirms this issue. adopting different and sometimes conflicting approaches and strategies, bush’s anti-terrorism and counterinsurgency strategies , obama, and trump’s zero base strategy is at least three distinct strategies of the us government in this era, which ultimately ended in the withdrawal of the us military forces from afghanistan after 20 years of presence in this country.research question: the main question of the article is what are the evidence for the change in the approach of the us foreign policy towards afghanistan in the three mentioned periods? and what is the relationship between afghanistan’s internal developments and this change of approach?research hypothesis: the change in the us foreign policy approach towards afghanistan has been affected by the internal developments of this country caused by the resistance of armed groups, especially the taliban, against us policies and the failure of the announced and implemented programs of this country during the presidency of bush, obama and trump.methodology and theoretical framework: since the first question of the article seeks to provide evidence of the change in the strategy of the united states regarding afghanistan in the three terms of the presidency, by adapting the methodology of a comparative study at the descriptive level, the most important features that support the change in these three periods should be mentioned. next, by focusing on the second question, we will investigate the relationship between two variables: the change in the us approach with the internal developments of this country from a descriptive and inferential point of view and analyzing the logic governing this change of approach, focusing on one of the causes mentioned in the systemic theory of james rosenaresults and discussion: the findings show that the us diplomatic system did not follow the same approach in afghanistan during the two terms of bush’s presidency and unlike the 2002 strategy, which sought a combination of ideological and strategic goals from its presence in afghanistan, in the 2006 strategy, the security aspect of these goals was dominant got more priority. in the obama administration, the revival of the us global influence and the destruction of terrorist groups required a transition from a counter-terrorism strategy to a counter-insurgency. in the obama administration, the restoration of the us global influence and the destruction of terrorist groups required a transition from anti-terrorism strategy to counter-insurgency. from this point of view, both the weakening of bush’s anti-terrorism strategy and the clarification of obama’s counter-insurgency strategy clearly indicate the role of afghan internal groups in the failure of america’s policies and successive changes in strategy.