جایگاه قفقاز جنوبی در منطقه گرایی سیاست خارجی ایران

جنگ دوم قره‌باغ با تغییر موازنۀ قدرت منطقه‌ای، محیط راهبردی و  چشم‌انداز ترتیبات ژئوپلیتیکی، قفقاز جنوبی را متحول کرده است. پس از فروپاشی اتحاد شوروی، سیاست ایران همواره مبتنی بر پیشگیری از جنگ فراگیر و حفظ وضع موجودِ مناقشه‌های منطقه، به‌ویژه بحران قره‌باغ بوده است. اما تهران هرگز ابتکاری برای برون‌رفت از بن‌بست‌های ژئوپلیتیکی درگیری و توسعۀ همگرایی اقتصادی در قفقاز جنوبی مطرح نکرده است. به‌دنبال واپسین جنگ قره‌باغ و تغییر محسوس موازنۀ نظامی به‌‌سود جمهوری آذربایجان، واقعیت‌های ژئوپلیتیکی نوپدید، ایران را به‌سوی بازتنظیم سیاست خارجی خود در قفقاز جنوبی و خروج از سیاست بی‌طرفی سنتی خود پیش برده است. با وجود این، به‌نظر می‌رسد سیاست خارجی ایران، چشم­انداز راهبردی نسبت به منطقه‌گرایی فعال در قفقاز جنوبی ندارد. در این نوشتار به‌دنبال پاسخ به چرایی نبود منطقه‌گرایی سیاست خارجی ایران در قفقاز جنوبی هستیم. با بهره‌بردن از روش تحلیل ترکیبی (قیاسی‌استقرایی) و چارچوب نظری منطقه‌گرایی، فرضیۀ اصلی را بر اساس دو دسته مولفۀ‌ رویکردهای کلان سیاست خارجی ایران و پویایی‌های سیاست داخلی و پویش‌های بین‌المللی و منطقه‌ای ارائه می‌کنیم. در مولفه‌های دسته اول، دیدگاه‌های نبود امکان همگرایی با کشور‌های منطقه، نبود سیاست همسایگی و تنهایی راهبردی در منطقه به‌دلیل ماهیت متفاوت ساخت قدرت و هویت ایران برجسته می‌شود. در پویش‌های محیطی نیز بر فشارهای نظام بین‌الملل علیه ایران، اولویت پیشران‌های امنیتی‌هویتی خاورمیانۀ عربی در سیاست منطقه‌ای و همچنین تاثیرپذیربودن روابط همسایگی ایران از سطح تنش با ایالات متحد آمریکا تاکید می‌شود.

the south caucasus in the regionalism of iran’s foreign policy

introduction: the second karabakh war resulted in a significant shift in the regional balance of power, as russia and turkey increased their influence to shape the changing geopolitics of the south caucasus. since the collapse of the soviet union, iran’s policy in the south caucasus has been based on preventing a fullscale war and maintaining the status quo in the region especially in the context of the nagornokarabakh conflict. however, tehran has never presented an initiative to mitigate geopolitical disputes or promote economic integration in the south caucasus. at the theoretical level, the idea of regionalism in iran’s foreign policy has usually been discussed from three perspectives: securitygeopolitical, geoeconomic and identitycivilizational. at the practical level, the main challenge for iranian regionalism over the past four decades has been to create a balance between these divergent approaches. in a general view, the second war in nagornokarabakh actually required the renewal of major geostrategic structures in the south caucasus. while regional stakeholders such as turkey and russia aspired for a greater role through their operationaldiplomatic initiatives, tehran’s passive response to regional geopolitical change made it clear that iran had no strategic vision to shape these developments. as a result of the weak engagement, iran is sidelined in emerging geopolitics of the south caucasus in strategic terms.research question: the purpose of this article is to explain the reasons for the lack of regionalism in iran’s foreign policy in the south caucasus. the main question is; what factors are at play in explaining iran’s regionalism in the south caucasus? how can we understand the reasons behind iran’s lack of regionalism in the south caucasus in a systematic way?research hypothesis: this paper presents two interrelated arguments by providing a multilevel explanation. first, the systemic pressures and lack of strategic vision of regionalism in foreign policy have isolated iran in its neighboring regions. second, the relative dominance of the securitygeopolitical approach and at the same time, the centrality of the arab middle east to iran’s regional policy, has increasingly marginalized other neighboring regions especially the south caucasus.methodology (and theoretical framework if there are): in order to explain the main idea of the research, this article uses the analytical method of inductivedeductive reasoning. an inductive deductive mixed reasoning has been used in this article and it is tried to take advantage of the collected data in order to achieve a proper pattern for analyzing the status and implications of iran’s regionalism in the south caucuses.  in the prism of latest developments in theoretical literature of regionalism, this article frames its main contribution by highlighting this main theoretical argument; contrary to westernoriented approaches, today the concept and requirements of regionalism are significantly different with regions and regionalism taking a quasiautonomous role in shaping regional policies and in addressing different issues and areas with the rise of new actors and alliances in the regions. results and discussion: in the aftermath of the 2020 karabakh war, emerging geopolitical realities convinced iran to start rearranging its foreign policy in the south caucasus and abandon its traditional policy of neutrality. although the regionalism projects proposed by others could be a favorable ground for tehran to strengthen cooperation with all stakeholders in the region, the major trend of iran’s foreign policy towards regionalism in the south caucasus is not yet visible on the horizon.  in the meantime, while iran has a rather open view toward the regionalist projects presented by russia and turkey, it views western proposals as potential drivers of divergence rather than convergence aimed, among other things, at isolating iran in its neighboring regions. although the collapse of the soviet union had provided a significant space for regional powers to play an active role in the south caucasus, iran’s engagement in this region and its relations with its neighbors have been limited. except for armenia, which has real political reasons in maintaining the balance in the conflict with azerbaijan over karabakh, iran has not had close relations with the republic of azerbaijan and georgia. in a general look, iran’s foreign policy in the south caucasus has been mostly passive and a securityoriented approach. over the last decades, western powers, the us in particular, have made an increasing effort to securitize iran’s regional behavior in the south caucasus. by adopting the “everything without iran policy”, the united states has sought to weaken iran’s role in transit corridors, energy transits and even cultural initiatives. under the influence of the west’s comprehensive iranophobia policy, in order to weaken iran’s strategic connections with its neighbors, a security and aggressive image of iran’s foreign policy has been portrayed in the eyes of its caucasian neighbors especially azerbaijan and georgia.conclusion: given the transition in the international system and the importance of regions in the structure of global governance, the development of cooperation with neighbors and active regionalism in the neighboring regions, especially the south caucasus, is gradually becoming a strategic necessity in the foreign policy of the islamic republic of iran. despite this, iran is facing many international and domestic challenges in pursuing an active regionalism. although the raeisi administration seeks to develop the neighborhood policy and redefine the role and strategic position of iran in the surrounding regions, it seems that at least in the foreseeable future, tehran is incapable of designing and implementing an active regionalist approach in the south caucasus independently.