عوامل موثر بر تصمیم‌سازی روسیه نسبت به اسرائیل

روسیه هم‌زمان با قرارگرفتن در جبهۀ مخالف اسرائیل، سیاست نزدیکی راهبردی به این بازیگر را در دستور کار خود قرار داده است. عوامل ‌موثری در سطح کلان و خرد در تصمیم‌سازی روسیه در نزدیکی با اسرائیل به‌صورت معمول و پیچیده دخیل بوده‌اند. این عوامل تاثیرگذار در سیاست خارجی روسیه، از زمان فروپاشی اتحاد شوروی تاکنون پیوستگی و استمرار داشته‌اند، تاجایی‌که سطح همکاری و روابط کنونی روسیه با اسرائیل در تحولات منطقه و بین‌الملل، جایگاه روسیه را در مجامع بین‌المللی ‌به‌عنوان شریک راهبردی نشان داده است. با توجه به اهمیت موضوع، در این نوشتار در پی پاسخ‌ به این پرسش‌ها هستیم که چه عوامل مهمی در سطح کلان و خرد در تصمیم‌سازی روسیه نسبت به نزدیکی راهبردی با اسرائیل تاثیرگذار بوده است؟ همچنین چگونه برخی از عوامل نسبت به برخی دیگر بر رفتار و مواضع سیاست خارجی روسیه به‌ویژه در دوران پوتین در برابر اسرائیل اهمیت بیشتری داشته است؟ در پاسخ این فرضیه مطرح می‌شود که نزدیکی راهبردی با اسرائیل در سیاست خارجی، نتیجۀ وجود عواملی در فرایند تصمیم‌سازی روسیه بوده است که البته در سطح کلان و خرد با درجه‌های متفاوت از تاثیرگذاری ظاهر و به بازتولید راهبرد نزدیکی با اسرائیل در سیاست خارجی روسیه منجر شده است. در دوران ‌ریاست‌جمهوری پوتین، عامل نقش و بعد از آن متغیر محیطی نسبت به دیگر عوامل بر این تصمیم تاثیر بیشتری داشته است. روش پژوهش در این نوشتار تحلیل محتوای کیفی با رویکرد استقرایی است و از نظریۀ جیمز روزنا برای تبیین این موضوع بهره گرفته‌ایم.

infutional factors on russia’s decision making toward israel

introduction: despite being on the antiisrael front, russia has put the policy of strategic closeness with this actor on its agenda. various micro and macro factors have been involved in russia’s decisionmaking process regarding proximity to israel in a typical and complex manner. these influencing factors on russia’s foreign policy have continued since the collapse of the soviet union, so that the current cooperation and interaction between russia and israel in regional and international developments has introduced russia as a strategic partner in international forums.  research question: what role do micro and macro factors play in russia’s decisionmaking regarding its strategic approach to israel? at the same time, its purpose is to give priority to the importance of the factors influencing russia’s behavior and foreign policy regarding israel, especially during putin’s presidency. research hypothesis: the research hypothesis indicates that the strategic approach to israel in foreign policy was caused by various factors in russia’s decisionmaking process. these factors have had different degrees of effectiveness at the micro and macro levels and have restructured the strategy of getting closer to israel. during putin’s presidency, the role factor and then environmental variables have been more effective than other factors in this decision.methodology (and theoretical framework if there are): in this article, the authors have investigated the topic and hypothesis of the article with qualitative content analysis method based on inductive approach. in order to explain russia’s foreign policy towards israel, while paying attention to the level of macro analysis, factors at the level of micro analysis should also be studied. therefore, to explain russia’s foreign policy towards israel, we have used james rosena’s theory to provide a more accurate and comprehensive explanation of foreign policy by combining two levels, macro and micro. therefore, in the analysis of russia’s foreign policy towards israel, four variable factors of the individual, role, government and society at the micro level and environmental variables at the macro level have been emphasized. nevertheless, the factors affecting russia’s foreign policy at the micro and macro levels have evolved based on a causal sequence and have become a fixed pattern in moscow’s foreign policy. according to rosena, these factors have had different effects on russia’s foreign policy. therefore, each of these factors have played significant role in russia’s decision to adopt a strategic approach towards israel.results and discussion: the findings indicate that the individual factor including the norms, beliefs and perceptions of decision makers is an important principle. during putin’s presidency, the feeling of the same language has affected relations between moscow and tel aviv. however, during the presidency of yeltsin and medvedev, western tendencies have been more effective in moscow’s strategic approach to tel aviv. in james rosena’s theory, the role of decision makers in the government’s foreign policy behavior is considered an effective factor. russia’s formal and informal laws emphasize the important role of president in directing the foreign policy. the president of russia determines russia’s foreign policy by appointing the minister of foreign affairs and his board as the main representative of the government. putin has made the best use of his position and role for the strategic neighborhood with israel and can give importance to his role in the formation of the strategic neighborhood policy with israel according to national and international considerations. therefore, the role factor has priority over other factors. although the dimension of role has affected the relationships between the two actors during yeltsin’s presidency, but the role of president was less prioritized in medvedev’s period. governmental structure as an important variable in james rosena’s theory has influenced foreign policy. since the russian political system is a combination of democracy and authoritarianism, many democratic institutions do not have a special place in russian foreign policy. therefore, russia’s foreign policy is formulated and implemented around the axis of the executive power in such a way that we observe the increased role of the executive power as a main and important variable in proximity to israel across the diplomatic history. in addition, the role of the executive branch in the kremlin’s foreign policy has been significantly strengthened during putin’s presidency and other institutions establish diplomatic relations within the framework of the president’s foreign policy. social and nongovernmental aspects are another variable that have been capable of affecting russia’s foreign behavior in such a way that the executive power and its relevant institutions in formulating and implementing foreign policy constantly interact with influential groups, such as the prowestern moderate network, jewish organizations, media, etc. and have affected the formation of the consensual nature of russia’s foreign policy against israel. based on environmental variables, israel’s role in solving russia’s disputes with the united states, cooperation in the fight against terrorism, developments in the middle east and the caucasus have led to the development of a neighborly approach in russia’s foreign policy.conclusion: with the election of putin to the presidency, russia’s foreign policy has changed its direction to use israel as a tool to gain advantage from the west and the united states in order to achieve its goals by exerting pressure on israel in international and regional developments. putin knows that israel’s need for russia to guarantee its security in the developments in the middle east, especially the syrian crisis, may meet moscow’s foreign policy goals and priorities. so, in putin’s presidency, environmental variable is prioritized after the role factor. in a general view, all five factors have not only influenced russia’s foreign policy, but also interacted with each other.