تحلیل رمز عملیاتی و درک ویژگی‌های روان‌شناختی- سیاسی شخصیت پوتین

درک ویژگی‌های شخصیتی رهبران سیاسی و شیوۀ شکل‌گیری ادراک‌ها و تصورهای آن‌ها از سیاست از موضوع‌های محوری در رشته‌ روان‌شناسی سیاسی است. اینکه چگونه متاثر از زمینه‌های خلقی- روانی در سطح فردی و عوامل و موقعیتی- ساختاری، کنش‌های ویژه‌ای را انجام می‌دهند، تصمیم‌هایی گرفته می‌شود و چرا گزینۀ «الف» را به‌جای گزینه‌ «ب» برمی‌گزینند. پرداختن به موضوع این نوشتار از این نظر ضرورت دارد که می‌تواند زمینۀ تحلیل شخصیت، درک نگرش‌ها و رفتارها و پیش‌بینی‌پذیرکردن نسبی عرصه‌ سیاست را فراهم کند. روش تحلیل رمز عملیاتی، یکی از پرکاربردترین فن‌ها برای درک و تحلیل روشمند سرشت شخصیت سیاسی و فهم نگرش‌ها، باورها و اقدام‌های آن‌ها با توجه به ویژگی‌های روان‌شناختی افراد، هم‌زمان با توجه به موقعیت است. پرسش اصلی نوشتار این است که پوتین سرشت سیاست را چگونه درک می‌کند و در مورد کاربست قدرت در امور انسانی چه می‌داند، چه احساسی دارد و چه می‌خواهد؟ محور اصلی بحث این است که چگونه باورها به «بازنمایی ذهنی واقعیت» می‌پردازند و با شکل‌دادن به ادراک رهبران، فرایندهای تصمیم‌گیری را ممکن می‌کنند. در این نوشتار تلاش می‌کنیم ضمن معرفی روش تحلیل رمز عملیاتی، جنبه­ها و سرشت تحلیلی آن در مورد شخصیت ولادیمیر ولادیمیرویچ پوتین در قالب درک باورهای فلسفی و ابزاری او را بررسی و نقد کنیم. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که پوتین باید به‌عنوان یک فرصت‌طلب و نه یک راهبردساز بزرگ دیده شود که هرچند در طراحی راه‌کار‌ها خوب است، اما هیچ راهبردی در این میان وجود ندارد و در درازمدت نمی‌تواند موفق باشد.

operational code analysis and psycho-political understanding of putin’s personality

introduction: understanding the personality traits of political leaders and their perceptions and ideas on politics is one of the basic issues in the field of political psychology. how emotional-psychological conditions affect people on the one hand and structural-situational factors on the other, are the decisions that have been made and why option &a& was chosen instead of option &b&? the importance of this matter is that it can provide the basis for personality analysis, understanding of attitudes and behaviors and relative predictability of the political sphere. &operational code& is one of the useful and practical techniques for the methodical analysis of political figures and understanding the psychological nature of their attitudes, beliefs and actions, the texts of their private or public statements through the study and analysis of diaries, letters, speeches, notes, interviews and press conferences and secondary sources or reports of government activity by external observers such as journalists, historians or political commentators.the importance of this article is the methodical use of operational code analysis with the aim of not being satisfied with the psychobiography genre and examining the psychological characteristics of the individual while paying attention to the situation. the main discussion in related to operational code analysis reflects this cognitivist proposition that beliefs as &mental representation of reality& are important in explaining global politics in various ways, which are not considered in neorealist, neoliberal, and constructivist theories. while leaders can act to change the balance of power, domestic and international institutions and cultural norms in the long term.the nature of cognitive theories differs from rational choice models and structural theories of foreign policy regarding the role of beliefs as causal mechanisms. instead of passively reflecting the reality, they examine the leaders’ decisions by shaping the leaders’ perception of the reality and act as cognitive and motivational bias mechanisms that distort and block the information, slows down or recasts incoming information received from the environment. this role for beliefs is especially notable when the environment is uncertain, that is, when information is scarce, ambiguous, contradictory, or so abundant that it is difficult for leaders to organize and process. also, when new information conflicts with the leader’s prior beliefs based on old information, stereotypes, or other cognitive biases associated with threats to self-interest, or when triggered by strong emotions such as fear, anger, shame, hatred. in this paper, while introducing the operational code analysis method, its dimensions and analytical nature in relation to putin’s personality will be examined and criticized.research question: the main question of this paper is how putin understands the nature of politics and what does he know, what does he feel and what does he want about the exercise of power in political affairs? the main idea is how beliefs interact with &mental representations of reality& and enable decision-making processes by shaping leaders’ perceptions.  in this paper, while introducing the operational code analysis method, its dimensions and analytical nature in relation to the personality of vladimir vladimirovich putin will be examined and criticized in the form of understanding his philosophical and instrumental beliefs.methodology (and theoretical framework if any:  an operational code analysis method for analyzing putin’s personality using a &complete and verbatim file of public conversations&, including speeches and interviews, classifications of statements concludes that putin’s beliefs are issue-specific and shows that a combination of competing on some issues and participation in others is consistent with his diverse operating code.