تبیینی بر سیستم دفاع موشکی روسیه از دیدگاه واقع‌گرایی نوکلاسیک

در سال‌های اخیر برنامۀ استقرار سیستم دفاع موشکی روسیه نه در قالب برنامه‌ای تاکتیکی، بلکه مانند برنامه‌ای راهبردی ارتقا یافته است. این برنامه شامل توسعۀ ابزارهای شناسایی، رهگیری و هشدار زودهنگام و استقرار آن‌ها در مناطق راهبردی در قلمرو روسیه و برخی کشورهای متحد آن است. این پرسش مطرح است که چرا روسیه اقدام به توسعه و استقرار سامانه‌های دفاع موشکی کرده است؟ در دسته‌بندی کلان، این نوشتار از دستۀ پژوهش‌های کیفی است که در ارائۀ داده‌های مربوط به سامانه‌های دفاع موشکی به روش تاریخی و زمینۀ آزمون فرضیه به روش تجربی انجام شده است. در قالب این روش، در این نوشتار به سخنان مقام‌های روس و بررسی اسناد سیاست خارجی و امنیتی روسیه و هم‌زمانی این برنامه نیز توجه کرده‌ایم. فرضیۀ نوشتار این است که تلاش غرب برای استقرار سپر دفاع موشکی موجب شد رهبران روسیه احساس تهدید کنند و امنیت و جایگاه بین‌المللی کشورشان را به‌عنوان یک قدرت بزرگ و یکی از دو کانون اصلی قدرت نظامی در خطر ببینند. در نتیجه، سامانه­های دفاع موشکی خود را از نظر کیفی ارتقا دادند و در مناطق راهبردی مستقر کردند. در این نوشتار دریافتیم بین این سه متغیر، استقرار سپر دفاع موشکی غرب، ادراک رهبران روسیه و استقرار سیستم دفاع موشکی روسیه، رابطۀ معناداری وجود دارد. افزون بر آن، استقرار نیروهای تهاجمی آمریکا در اروپا که در پی خروج واشینگتن از پیمان کنترل تسلیحات پدید آمد نیز در پیدایش چنین رویکردی موثر بوده است. همچنین یافته­های نوشتار نشان می‌دهد که هم سطح فناوری سامانه‌های دفاع موشکی روسیه به‌نسبت نمونۀ غربی آن پایین‌تر است و هم قلمرو پوشش آن‌ها محدودتر است.

analysis of russian missile defense systems in the lense of neo-clasical realism

introduction: the russian army is developing some reconnaissance and interceptor vehicles such as the s.300 systems to defend strategic areas belonging to some of its allied countries. another defensive shield system was also produced on a regional scale, such as the s-400 which is more capable than the s-300 system. during this process, the russian military began production of the s-500 defense system. production sites of s-300 and s-400 missile systems were established in some vital regions of russia (in kaliningrad and crimea) and the territory of some allied countries. however, the russian defense shield is technically weaker and more limited compared to the western countries defense shield, but without a doubt, this plan will not remain at these levels.  the development of russia’s defense shield means that russian leaders intend to defend their country against the threat of western ballistic missiles. of course, these equipments increase the offensive power of western countries, especially by carrying tools and increasing missile defense systems. one of the main tools of russia’s defense shield is the s-300 missile system.the pmu s-300 model is capable of countering an attack missile with a speed of mach 2-8 and a range of 1000 km. this system was established in armenia, tajikistan, kyrgyzstan, kazakhstan and belarus. the s-400 system is also capable of shooting down stealth aircraft, ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles and drones with a range of 400 km. but two tools only work on atmosphere.the s-500 system is also in the final stage of production with a range of 600 km and a speed of mach 7, which is capable of shooting down hypersonic missiles and spy satellites. it is expected to be fulfilled by 2025. in addition, the russian military has developed some ground-based early warning radars called voronezh.the voronezh md model has an inspection area of 6000 km and has the capacity to detect 500 targets. of course, this radar is only an early warning system and is not compatible with any interceptor device. reconnaissance satellite technology has also been used for defense. currently, several cosmos class satellites are in service and will be deployed in outer space for this purpose. the russian military plans to upgrade this technology and surveillance. the plan to deploy russian missile defense systems appears not as a tactical plan, but as a strategic plan. this plan is simultaneously qualitative and quantitative in the development of detection and interception systems as well as early warning systems.research question: “why is russia thinking of creating a missile defense shield? research hypothesis: the hypothesis of the article is that &the concern of russian leaders about the western plan to create a missile defense shield has led to the development of their own missile defense tools.&methodology (and theoretical framework if there are): this is a historical and descriptive method with an emphasis on monitoring russia’s anti-ballistic systems, as well as examining the country’s official doctrine in the field of security and foreign policy.  this research also deals with the situation of the russian authorities.   results and discussion: the research results show that the us and nato defense shield was the main motivation of the russian authorities to create missile defense systems. the us and nato missile defense shields consists of sm3 interceptors, aegis radars and early warning satellites. however, each part is separated but they are connected by all.