تاثیرهای امنیتی صادرات تسلیحات روسیه به دولت‌های منطقۀ غرب آسیا (مطالعۀ موردی ایران، مصر، عراق وسوریه)

همکاری نظامی ابزاری برای تامین منافع ملی است. تجارت اسلحه به تشدید یا مهار اقدام‌های تهاجمی یا تدافعی، ثبات منطقه‌ای یا برهم‌زدن آن کمک می‌کند. بعد از فروپاشی اتحاد شوروی، روسیه کوشید به بازار تسلیحات نظامی در سطح منطقه و جهان بازگردد تا رقابت خود را با تسلیحات پیشرفتۀ ایالات متحد آمریکا حفظ کند. با شروع بهار عربی در سال 2011 و به‌ویژه مداخلۀ روسیه در بحران سوریه از سال 2015، فروش تسلیحات پیشرفتۀ روسی در این منطقه افزایش یافته است. در این نوشتار با بهره‌گیری از نظریۀ معمای امنیتی و روش پژوهش کیفی، به‌دنبال پاسخ به این پرسش هستیم که با صادرات تسلیحات روسی به کشورهای منطقۀ غرب آسیا، چشم‌انداز امنیتی در این منطقه چگونه خواهد بود؟ در شرایط حاضر ملاحظات ژئوپلیتیکی و مزایای نسبی از درآمد فروش این تسلیحات از انگیزه‌های روسیه برای حضور در این بازار بزرگ است. با وجود رقیب قدرتمندی همچون ایالات متحد بازار صادرات تسلیحات در این منطقۀ پرآشوب، پیچیده خواهد شد. فرضیه این است که روسیه با فروش تسلیحات خود به کشورهای غرب آسیا، مناسب با شرایط زمانی و مکانی، موجب کاهش یا افزایش معمای امنیتی بین کشورهای این منطقه شده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد فروش تسلیحات روسیه به ایران می‌تواند سبب شکل‌گیری معمای امنیتی بین این کشور و اسرائیل شود. در مورد سوریه و عراق نیز می‌تواند به مبارزۀ آن‌ها علیه تروریسم کمک کند و ثبات‌ساز شناخته شود. همچنین تا زمانی که فروش تسلیحاتی روسیه به مصر توزان قوا بین مصر و اسرائیل را برهم نزند، معمای امنیتی بین مصر و اسرائیل شکل نخواهد گرفت.

Security Implications of Russian Arms Exports to West Asian Countries (Iran, Egypt, Syria, and Iraq)

Introduction: Technical and military cooperation is a unique way of securing the national interests of countries. The arms trade may change the international condition by intensifying the motivations of states and disrupting regional stability. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has sought to return to the military arms market in West Asia and the world to compete with the United States’ advanced weapons. Russia is the secondlargest arms exporter in the world after the United States. The West Asian region has emerged as Moscow’s second most important arms market in recent years. With the start of the Arab Spring in 2011 and especially Russia’s intervention in the Syrian crisis since 2015, sales of advanced Russian weapons in the region have increased significantly. West Asia is one of the most dangerous regions in the world, with many conflicts that have affected many countries in the region. Israeli officials have expressed concern about the Iranian threat, stressing the ongoing need to maintain a large, technologically advanced army in the environment, which is facing conflict and instability in areas such as Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Libya. Foreign powers intend to sell hightech weapons to their local partners. West Asian countries are interested in buying advanced military equipment from major powers, including Russia, to strengthen their defense capabilities, as well as gain international prestige and increase their national strength. Although the United States has imposed an arms embargo on Russia, there is evidence that some West Asian countries are determined to buy military equipment from Russia, such as the S300, S400, Sukhoi35, and Sukhoi57 systems.Research Question: What are the security implications of Russian arms exports to West Asian countries?Research Hypothesis: According to this hypothesis, Russia’s arms exports to Iran, Egypt, Syria, and Iraq in recent years have exacerbated the security crisis between Iran and Israel. According to the hypothesis, Russian arms export to Iran, Egypt, Syria, and Iraq in recent years, on one hand, lead to intensification of security dilemma between Iran and Israel and some extent lessen the security dilemma between Syria and Israel, and creating a stable security condition in Iraq. In addition, the arms deal between Egypt and Russia has not changed the balance of power between them and therefore has not created a security problem.Methodology (and theoretical framework if available): The authors have used the security dilemma theory and qualitative research method to answer the main research question according to the available reliable sources.Results and discussion: The findings show that geopolitical considerations, as well as relative benefits of arms sales revenue, are Russia’s motivations for entering this large market and despite strong rivals such as the United States and sanctions against Moscow, the arms export market in West Asia are very complex. In this regard, Russia is seeking to increase its political influence in the countries that purchase Russian weapons. Under such circumstances, US allies in the region are increasing their arms purchases from the United States leading to a complex and multifaceted security dilemma in the region. The authors aim to study and analyze militarytechnical cooperation between Russia and West Asian countries. To better understand the issue, this article first tries to provide an analysis of the world arms condition and Russia’s share in this market. The turbulent West Asian market and the presence of Russian weapons in the region are then examined, and finally, the obstacles to Russian military cooperation with the countries of the region are examined.Conclusion: Until recently, Russia was cautious in using arms exports as political leverage. Now the situation has changed, and the growth of Russia’s share of the arms market in West Asia will make the Kremlin’s arms policies even more crucial. Instability in West Asia suggests that the region will remain a major arms market for years to come, helping Russian arms suppliers challenge US dominance. Russian federal law states that strengthening military and political positions abroad is the main goal of Russian military and industrial corporations and that Moscow will undoubtedly use its arms export industry to influence the balance of power in the region. Russia plays a significant role in Syria as a gamechanger and has already used its weapons industry strategically. Based on the theory of the security dilemma, the authors of this article conclude that rising defense spending in West Asia raises concerns about the possibility of a regional arms race that would increase tensions in an unstable region. This has a serious impact on the prospects for peace in the region as arms purchases can provoke more fear among countries and ultimately make it harder for them to sit at the negotiating table. Russia’s goal in exporting arms to the region is to increase its military and political influence as well as to compete with the United States.