فرصت‎ها و چالش‎های اقتصادی موافقت‌نامۀ تجارت آزاد اتحادیۀ اروپا و گرجستان برای جمهوری اسلامی ایران

پس از برجام، دورۀ جدیدی از روابط اقتصادی میان ایران و گرجستان آغاز شد. از مولفه‌هایی که سبب انگیزۀ ایرانی‌ها برای سرمایه‌گذاری در گرجستان شد، روابط نزدیک میان گرجستان و اتحادیۀ اروپا بود. در سال 2014 موافقت‌نامۀ تجارت آزاد عمیق و همه‌جانبه میان اتحادیۀ اروپا و گرجستان امضا شد. از این تاریخ، گرجستان از امتیازهایی در روابط اقتصادی با اتحادیۀ اروپا بهره‌مند شد. بنابر برخی مفاد این قرارداد، اروپایی‌‌ها امتیازهایی برای دولت‌های ‌سوم فعال در گرجستان نیز در نظر گرفتند. پرسشی که پیش می‌آید این است که بستن این موافقت‌نامه چه فرصت‌هایی را برای جمهوری اسلامی ایران برای پیشبرد سیاست‌های اقتصادی خود در گرجستان فراهم می‌آورد و آیا می‌تواند سبب نزدیکی بیشتر ایران و اروپا شود؟ در پاسخ، می‎توان گفت که بندهای مربوط به صادرات بدون تعرفه، قوانین مبدا و آزادسازی ویزا با اروپا که در این قرارداد گنجانده شده است فرصت‌های بزرگی را برای ایران فراهم می‌آورد و می‌تواند سبب افزایش سطح روابط میان ایران و گرجستان و همچنین بهبود روابط میان ایران و اتحادیۀ اروپا شود. این همکاری‎ها در دو حوزۀ انرژی و حمل‌ونقل نمود می‌یابد. برای بررسی این فرضیه از نظریۀ وابستگی متقابل استفاده می‌کنیم. مفروض است که روابط مثبت ایران و اروپا در حال حاضر، زمینه را برای بازیگری موثر ایران در گرجستان فراهم کرده است و می‌تواند به‌عنوان عامل مهمی در برابر فشارهای آمریکا و روسیه عمل کند و به گرجستان پشتوانه‌‌ای ‌برای تعمیق روابط دهد.

Concluding EU Georgia Free Trade Agreement (Opportunities and Challenges for the Islamic Republic of Iran)

Georgia is the connecting point of the South Caucasus region to the North on the one hand and Russia and the Caucasus to Eastern and Central Europe, on the other. The Black Sea is located in western Georgia, which plays an important role in geopolitical matters in the region. Georgia has three important ports in this sea; the most important one is the port of Poti. In terms of geospace, Georgia is the main source of access to the Black Sea, being in equations of the east corridor to the west and from the south to the north, also acting as a balance of power between  Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkey and Iran and the strategic stratagem of Russia, Europe and the United States. Contrary to what is shown in the media, Iran hasn’t had significant economic achievements in Georgia.After the signing of JCPOA (joint comprehensive plan of action) or Iran nuclear deal, a new era of economic relations between Iran and Georgia began. One of the motivating factors for investing in Georgia was the close relationship between Georgia and the European Union. In 2014, “Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement” was signed between the European Union and Georgia and since then, Georgia has benefited from concessions in economic relations with the European Union. According to some of the provisions of this agreement, Europeans considered concessions for another government in Georgia.The question is how conclusion of this agreement will provide opportunities for the Islamic Republic of Iran to advance its economic policies in Georgia and whether it could lead to a greater proximity to Iran and Europe. There are many capacities to expand IranGeorgia ties in economic spheres. In the meantime the European Union seems to be able to bring about closer regional cooperation.In response to the abovementioned question, it can be said that the clauses on free tariffs export, the rules of origin and the visa liberalization with Europe included in this agreement provide great opportunities for Iran and could increase the level of relations between Iran and Georgia on the one hand and improve relations between Iran and the European Union on the other. This cooperation has occurred in energy and transportation sectors.In the first case, it can be said that Iran and Georgia have a special geopolitical position. The geographical location of Iran between the Caspian Sea and Oman Sea, the location of Georgia along the Black Sea and the fact that both of these states are transit routes for Europe and have great potential to develop threeway partnerships, are of paramount importance. Iran is one of the richest countries in the world in terms of oil and gas reserves, and the EU as one of the largest industrial poles in the world is strongly dependent on imports of energy resources. Georgia also is in need of new energy resources to complete its independency from Russia. On the other hand, oil, gas and other derivatives account for the bulk of the Iranian export market which has led the country to depend heavily on foreign exchange earnings from the sale of these products. Despite the huge reserves of Iran and its geographical proximity to the European Union, energy exchanges are not at the right level. Therefore, there is threeway sensitivity in the field of energy and transit between Iran, Georgia and the European Union.According to liberalpolitical theories, regional agreements can open the way for the further expansion of economic cooperation. This is the policy pursued by the EU in its economic diplomacy. European Neighborhood Policy and the Eastern Partnership Program were important steps in active participation of Europe in the South Caucasus region and particularly in Georgia, which led to the conclusion of a cooperation agreement with the country. This paper has used interdependency theory for the hypothesis examination.Currently good relations between Iran and Europe has provided the ground for effective Iranian presence in Georgia and can act as a major barrier (contributor) to the pressures of the United States and Russia and give Georgia a backing for deepening its ties with Iran. The concept of sensitivity in threeway relationship between Iran, Georgia and the European Union can be useful for all three sides. The concept of susceptibility is a healthy relationship in Georgia and the capacity for this threesided sensitivity is fortunate. The reading of theory of interdependence means that among the countries with a high degree of bilateral trades, if trade value is not sensitive to price and income developments in the two countries, they will have limited economic dependence.After the signing of JCPOA, EU confirmed Iran’s key role in the Caucasus. There is no doubt that cultural ties between Iran and Georgia can contribute to further development of relations but this will not be achieved without more dynamic economic relations between the two countries. Europe is the catalyst that provides more dynamism. Friendship with the EU is a key factor in increasing Iran’s presence in Georgia. Iran has the capacity to play a key role in geopolitics of the Caucasus including Georgia. With Europe’s support, Iran will look more as a reliable player. The historical and cultural commonalities between Iran and Georgia, the decline of Russia’s influence in Georgia, the involvement of Europeans in issues related to Georgia and Iran as a dynamic actor are the most important means for promoting bilateral and trilateral relations. In addition, Iran could benefit from the dynamics of the deeprooted bilateral engagement with Georgia and EU.