بررسی سودمندی روش های انتخاب متغیر ریلیف و همبستگی در پیش‌بینی و شناسایی متغیرهای پیش بین بهینه تاثیرگذار بر سیاست جسورانه مالیاتی

شواهد تجربی نشان می‌دهد شرکت‌ها در تلاش‌اند مالیات بر درآمد خود را کاهش داده یا به تعویق بیندازند. در این پژوهش سیاست جسورانه مالیاتی به‌عنوان ابزار کاهش مالیات بررسی می‌شود. پژوهش حاضر درصدد فراهم آوردن شواهد تجربی در خصوص مقایسه عملکرد روش‌های خطی مانند روش‌های مبتنی بر همبستگی و ریلیف با سایر مدل‌های قبل از کاهش متغیرها در پیش‌بینی معیارهای سیاست جسورانه مالیاتی شرکت‌های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران است. هم‌چنین سودمندی روش‌های مبتنی بر همبستگی و ریلیف برای انتخاب متغیرهای پیش‌بین بهینه، بررسی و مقایسه شد. به این منظور داده‏های مربوط به 108 شرکت برای دوره‌ زمانی بین سال‌های 1389 تا 1397 با استفاده از روش داده‌های تابلویی، بررسی و آزمون شد. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که بین برآورد کلیه متغیرهای پژوهش و بهره‌گیری از روش‌های‌کاهش متغیر تفاوت معناداری وجود دارد. همچنین نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که سودمندی روش ریلیف در مدل‌سازی عوامل موثر بر سیاست جسورانه مالیاتی بیشتر از روش‌ همبستگی است. علاوه بر این نتایج نشان دادند که عدم اطمینان متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی تاثیر مثبت و معنادار و عوامل کیفیت حسابرسی، رقابت بازار محصول، و ویژگی‌های مدیران عامل تاثیر منفی و معناداری بر سیاست جسورانه مالیاتی دارند.

Investigating the usefulness of Relief and correlation variable selection methods in predicting and identifying optimal predictor variables affecting aggressive tax policy

IntroductionThe main issue in this research is the study of factors affecting aggressive tax policy and also modeling the factors affecting aggressive tax policy. The present study seeks to provide empirical evidence to compare the performance of methods such as correlationbased methods and relief with other models before reducing the variables in predicting aggressive tax policy criteria of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. In this regard, the usefulness of correlation and relief methods for selecting optimal predictor variables was also investigated and compared. 2.HypothesesThe purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of relief and correlationbased linear methods in predicting the optimal predictor variables affecting aggressive tax policy. According to this aim and the theoretical foundations, the research hypotheses were formulated as follows:Hypothesis 1: There is a significant difference between the predictive performance of aggressive tax policy using optimally selected predictor variables and the use of all predictor variables.Hypothesis 2: There is a significant difference between the usefulness of variable selection methods in predicting aggressive corporate tax policy. 3 MethodFor this purpose, data related to 108 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange for the period between 1389 to 1397 were used. The fixed effects pattern regression method was evaluated and tested using the panel data method. The sample includes 108 companies that were selected by elimination method (screening). The data were first sorted and classified in Excel software and then analyzed using EVIEWS software. Also, relief and correlationbased methods were used using VEKA software to select the optimal independent variables affecting taxation 4 ResultsThe results of testing the first hypothesis showed that the error of the first and second types and the coefficient of determination for all primary variables and the correlationbased method and the relief method are equal to (0.080, 0.060 and 0.597), respectively (0.090, 0.064 and 0.511) and (0.089, 0.064 and 0.522) which indicate a significant difference between the methods of reducing the variable and all the main variables; As a result, the first hypothesis is confirmed.Also, the error of the first and second types and the coefficient of determination for variable reduction methods including: correlationbased method, and relief method are equal to (0.090, 0.064 and 0.511) and (0.089, 0.064, respectively). And 0.522) and shows that the usefulness of Relief method> is based on correlation method and therefore it can be said that among the methods of reducing the variable Relief method is better useful and thus the second hypothesis is confirmed. 5Discussion and ConclusionThe purpose of this study is to model the factors affecting tax planning in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. In this study, the measure of aggressive tax policy has been used to measure tax planning. Also in this research, two methods of variable reduction including (correlationbased method and Relief method) have been used to reduce the research variables and select the optimal variables.The results indicate that there is a significant difference between estimating all research variables and using variable reduction methods. The results also show that the usefulness of Relief method in modeling the factors affecting aggressive tax policy is more than the correlation method. In addition, the results indicate that among the factors affecting various tax criteria, the uncertainty of macroeconomic variables have a positive and significant effect on aggressive tax policy;In addition, the results showed that the uncertainty of macroeconomic variables has a positive and significant effect and the factors of audit quality, product market competition, and the characteristics of CEOs have a significant and negative effect on aggressive tax policy.