تاثیر تفکیک شاخص های اخبار بد بر محافظه کاری مشروط درمدل های مبتنی بر اقلام تعهدی

یکی از موضوعات جدید در حیطه محافظه‌کاری ، بررسی تاثیر اخبار بد بر محافظه‌کاری مشروط است. تفکیک شاخص‌‌های اخبار بد بینش جدیدی را در خصوص اقلام تعهدی حاصل می‌کند و باعث بهبود الگو‌های اقلام تعهدی می‌شود. هدف این پژوهش بررسی تاثیر تفکیک این شاخص‌ها بر محافظه‌کاری مشروط در الگو‌های مبتنی بر اقلام تعهدی در مقایسه با تاثیر شاخص‌های کلی در این الگو‌ها است. بدین منظور، داده‌های 144 شرکت از بورس اوراق بهادار تهران برای دوره زمانی 11 ساله از سال 1385 لغایت 1395 جمع آوری شده است. و روابط بین متغیرهای پژوهش با استفاده از داده‌های تابلویی و روش حداقل مربعات تعمیم‌یافته تجزیه‌ و تحلیل شده است. در این پژوهش، نتایج حاصل از الگوی آلن و همکاران (2013)، الگوی بال و شیواکومار (2006 ) و الگوی بایزالوو و باسو (2016) با یکدیگر مقایسه شد. نتایج این مقایسه نشان داد که تفکیک شاخص‌های اخبار بد باعث بهبود الگو‌های مبتنی بر اقلام تعهدی جهت پیش بینی روابط این شاخص‌ها با محافظه‌کاری مشروط می‌شود. همچنین سایر یافته‌های این پژوهش بر اساس نتایج الگوی بایزالو و باسو نشان داد، کاهش فروش، کاهش در تعداد کارکنان و جریان‌های نقد سال جاری با محافظه‌کاری مشروط رابطه مستقیم و معنی‌داری دارد در حالی‌که کاهش جریان‌های نقدی سال قبل و سال آتی با محافظه‌کاری مشروط رابطه معنی‌داری ندارند.

The impact of the breakdown of bad news indicators on conditional conservatism in accrualsbased models

Journal of Accounting Advances, (2020) 12(1): 2961 DOI: 10.22099/JAA.2019.33243.1862   Journal of Accounting Advances (JAA) Journal homepage: www.jaa.shirazu.ac.ir/?lang=en   The Impact of the Breakdown of Bad News Indicators On Conditional Conservatism in AccrualsBased ModelsABSTRACT Received: 2019419 Accepted: 20191225   One of the new issues in the field of conservatism is to examine the impact of bad news on conditional conservatism. Separating bad news indicators gives new insights on accruals and improves accrual models. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of separation of these indices on conditional conservatism in accrualbased models in comparison with the effect of general indices on these models. For this purpose, data of 144 companies were collected from Tehran Stock Exchange for a period of 11 years from 1385 to 1395,  and relationships between research variables using panel data and the generalized least squares method are analyzed. In this study, the results of Alan et al., (2013), Ball and Shivakumar (2006) and Byzalov and Basu (2016) models were compared. The results of the comparison showed that separating bad news indices improves accrualbased models to predict the relationship of these indices with conditional conservatism. Also, other findings of this study based on the results of Basilo and Basu model showed that sales decrease, decrease in number of employees and cash flows this year have a direct and significant relationship with conditional conservatism, while decrease of cash flows of the previous year and the next year did not have a significant relationship with conditional conservatism. * Corresponding author:   Dr. Mohsen Dastgir Professor, Department of Accounting, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran.   Email: dastmw@yahoo.com     1 Introduction        One of the new issues in the field of conservatism is to examine the impact of bad news on conditional conservatism. Separating bad news indicators gives new insights into accruals and improves accrual models. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of separation of these indices on conditional conservatism in accrualbased models in comparison with the effect of general indices on these patterns.   2 Research Hypothesis        H1: The asymmetric effects of the news indicators individually, in comparison with the asymmetric effects resulting from the combination of news indicators in one go, lead to a better estimate of conservatism in the corporate accrual items.        H2: The bad news about sales changes has a significant effect on the asymmetric timeliness of accruals.        H3: The bad news about changes in the number of employees has a significant impact on the asymmetric timeliness of accruals.        H4: The bad news of past cash flows has a significant effect on the asymmetric timeliness of accruals.        H5: The bad news of current cash flows has a significant effect on the asymmetric timeliness of accruals.        H6: The Bad news of upcoming cash flows has a significant impact on the asymmetric timeliness of accruals.   3 Methods        In order to carry out this research, the required data were collected from 144 manufacturing companies from 2006 to 2016. Statistical data were analyzed using panel data and generalized least squares method.   4 Results        The first hypothesis is confirmed. This means that by separating bad news indicators, the explanatory power of the model is enhanced and the model is strengthened. The second hypothesis is confirmed. As a result, it can be stated that bad news about sales changes has a positive and significant effect on the time asymmetry of working capital accruals. The third hypothesis is confirmed. As a result, it can be stated that bad news about staff changes has a positive and significant effect on the time asymmetry of working capital accruals. The fourth hypothesis is not confirmed. As a result, it can be stated that the decrease in cash flow last year (bad news) does not have a significant effect on the time asymmetry of working capital accruals. The fifth hypothesis is confirmed. Consequently, it can be stated that the decrease in current cash flow (bad news) has a significant and inverse relationship with the time asymmetry of working capital accruals. The sixth hypothesis is not confirmed. Consequently, it can be stated that the decrease in future cash flows (bad news) does not have a significant effect on the time asymmetry of working capital accruals.   5 Discussion and Conclusion        The results of the study showed that the disaggregated indicators of bad news have a stronger relationship with conditional conservatism. In fact, the results show that decentralized bad news models are more accurate and optimized than general news models. The second hypothesis is also supported because the decline in sales is an undesirable sign of the future situation, and the conservative principle requires that certain impairment losses be recognized. The results of the third hypothesis show that the decrease in the number of employees can indicate some skepticism about the future and lead to more conservatism in accruals. Likewise, the reasons for disproving the fourth and sixth assumptions may be due to factors such as the existence of earnings management in financial information, or the lack of conservatism in financial reporting by managers based on future estimates.   Keywords: Conditional Conservatism, Asymmetric Timeliness, Operational Cash Flow, Accruals, Bad News.