تاثیر سیاست‌ پولی بر ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی و زیر بخش‌های آن در اقتصاد ایران

ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ و ﻫﺪف: ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزی ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮑﯽ از ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎی اﺻﻠﯽ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﮐﺸﻮر، ﻧﻘﺶ ﻣﻬﻤﯽ در ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ و ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻏﺬای ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ دارد. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ، اﯾﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﻨﺒﻊ درآﻣﺪ ﺑﺮای ﺑﺴﯿﺎری از ﺧﺎﻧﻮادهﻫﺎ در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ و ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎی ﻣﺤﺮوم، اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﺑﺴﯿﺎری دارد. ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎی ﭘﻮﻟﯽ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزی اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﺑﺴﯿﺎری دارﻧﺪ. ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ، ﮐﻨﺘﺮل ﺗﻮرم، ﺗﺴﻬﯿﻞ در دﺳﺘﺮﺳﯽ ﺑﻪ اﻋﺘﺒﺎر، ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺑﺎزار و ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار از اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎی ﭘﻮﻟﯽ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزی ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﺑﯿﺎن ﺷﺪه ﻫﺪف از ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ، ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺛﺮ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﭘﻮﻟﯽ ﺑﺮ ارزش اﻓﺰوده ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزی و زﯾﺮ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎی آن )زراﻋﯽ، داﻣﯽ، ﺟﻨﮕﻠﺪاری و ﺷﯿﻼت( اﺳﺖ. ﻣﻮاد و روشﻫﺎ: ﺟﻬﺖ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ از ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎی؛ ﻧﻘﺪﯾﻨﮕﯽ، ارزش اﻓﺰوده و ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬاری ﺑﺼﻮرت دادهﻫﺎی ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﻃﯽ دوره زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 1398- 1370 و روش اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﺳﻨﺠﯽ gmm اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ، ﻧﻘﺪﯾﻨﮕﯽ در ﮐﻞ ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزی ﻣﻮﺟﺐ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ 3/06 واﺣﺪی ارزش اﻓﺰوده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ، در ﺣﺎﻟﯽ ﮐﻪ ﻧﻘﺪﯾﻨﮕﯽ در زﯾﺮ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎی زراﻋﯽ، داﻣﯽ، ﺷﯿﻼت و ﺟﻨﮕﻠﺪاری ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ 0/017، 2/76، 2/18 و 1/05 واﺣﺪی آن ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاری ﺑﺮ ارزش اﻓﺰوده در ﮐﻞ ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزی ﺑﺎ 1/56 ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ، در ﺣﺎﻟﯽ ﮐﻪ در زﯾﺮ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎی زراﻋﯽ، داﻣﯽ، ﺷﯿﻼت و ﺟﻨﮕﻠﺪاری ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ 3/21 ،0/31 ،0/53 و 2/08 واﺣﺪی آن ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﮔﺬاری ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﮔﺬاری ﺑﺮ ارزش اﻓﺰوده در زﯾﺮ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺷﯿﻼت ﺑﺎ ﻣﻘﺪار 3/21 را دارد. ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮی: ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ، ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎی ﭘﻮﻟﯽ در ﮐﺎراﯾﯽ ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزی ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ و ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻨﺎد ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه، ﻫﺪاﯾﺖ ﻧﻘﺪﯾﻨﮕﯽ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاری در زﯾﺮ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎی ﭘﺮ ﺑﺎزده ﮐﺸﺎورزی ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد.

the effect of monetary policy on value-added of the agricultural sector and its subsectors in the iranian economy

the agricultural sector, as one of the main sectors of the country's economy, plays an important role in the production and supply of food needed by society. also, this sector is very important as a source of income for many families in rural areas and deprived cities. monetary policies are very important in the agricultural sector. providing financial resources, controlling inflation, facilitating access to credit, developing the market, and achieving sustainable development are among the importance of monetary policies in the agricultural sector. according to the stated contents, the aim of this research is to investigate the effect of monetary policy on the value added of the agricultural sector and its subsectors (crop, livestock, fisheries and forestry).materials and methods: to investigate the research of the variables; liquidity, value added, and investment as annual data from 1991-2019, and the gmm econometric method was used. findings: the results of the research show that liquidity in the entire agricultural sector has increased the value added by 3.06 units, while liquidity in the crop, livestock, fisheries and forestry sub-sectors has increased by 0.017, 2.76, 2.18 and 1.05 units, respectively. also, investment has had a positive effect on value added in the entire agricultural sector with 1.56, while in the sub-sectors of agriculture, livestock, fisheries and forestry, it has increased by 0.53, 0.31, 3.21 and 2.08 units, respectively. investment has the highest influencing factor on value added in the fisheries sub-sector with a value of 3.21.conclusion: according to the research results, monetary policies are effective in the efficiency of the agricultural sector, and based on the obtained results, it is suggested to direct the available liquidity towards investment in the productive sub-sectors of agriculture.