مدلسازی هیدرولوژی- اقتصادی جامع کشاورزی و منابع آب استان تهران جهت ارزیابی آثار بالقوه گرمایش جهانی

ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ و ﻫﺪف: در ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﯾﮑﭙﺎرﭼﻪﺳﺎزی ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزی ﻫﯿﺪروﻟﻮژﯾﮑﯽ- اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺟﺎﻣﻊ ﮐﺸﺎورزی و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب در اﺳﺘﺎن ﺗﻬﺮان ﺟﻬﺖ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ آﺛﺎر ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻮه ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﺶ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﻣﻮاد و روشﻫﺎ: اﺑﺘﺪا ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣ ﺪلﻫﺎی ﮔﺮدش ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ gcm اﺛﺮ ﮔﺎزﻫﺎی ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪای ﺑﺮ ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎی اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ دﻣﺎ و ﺑﺎرش ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎی اﻧﺘﺸﺎر a2 ،a1b و b1 ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﮐﺎر ﺑﻪ ﮐﻤﮏ ﺳﺎﻣﺎﻧﻪ دادهای gcm/rcm و ﻣﺪل رﯾﺰﻣﻘﯿﺎس lars-wg ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. در اداﻣﻪ، ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روﯾﮑﺮد اﻗﺘﺼﺎدﺳﻨﺠﯽ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن اﺛﺮات ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎی اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ دﻣﺎ و ﺑﺎرش ﺑﺮ ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ زراﻋﯽ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺷﺪ. ﺟﻬﺖ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﺑﺮ اﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎی زراﻋﯽ از ﻣﺪل ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰی رﯾﺎﺿﯽ اﺛﺒﺎﺗﯽ pmp اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﻤﺎﯾﻞ ﮐﺸﺎورزان ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ ﮔﻨﺪم آﺑﯽ، ذرت داﻧﻪای و ﮐﻠﺰا و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ ﺟﻮ آﺑﯽ، ﮔﻮﺟﻪﻓﺮﻧﮕﯽ، ﻫﻨﺪواﻧﻪ و آﻓﺘﺎﺑﮕﺮدان در اﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎی زراﻋﯽ ﺣﻮﺿﻪﻫﺎی ﺷﻤﺎﻟﯽ و ﺟﻨﻮﺑﯽ اﺳﺘﺎن ﺗﻬﺮان از ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﻋﻤﺎل ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮی اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺗﻠﻔﯿﻘﯽ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ دو درﺟﻪای دﻣﺎ و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ 20 ﻣﯿﻠﯽﻣﺘﺮی ﺑﺎرش در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺗﺤﺖ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ رﺧﺪاد ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ، ﻫﻨﺪواﻧﻪ و آﻓﺘﺎﺑﮕﺮدان ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﺎ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﮐﺎﻫﺸﯽ در ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد 17/7 ،13/1 درﺻﺪ و ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ 68/8 و 31/9 درﺻﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﺣﺴﺎسﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت در اﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎی زراﻋﯽ ﺣﻮﺿﻪﻫﺎی ﻣﺬﮐﻮر ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. ﺑﺤﺚ و ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮی: در ﭘﺎﯾﺎن، اﺗﺨﺎذ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎی ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ و ﺗﻨﻈﯿﻢ ﺑﺎزار ﺟﻬﺖ ﮐﻨﺘﺮل ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﻏﻠﻪای ﮔﻨﺪم و ﺟﻮ آﺑﯽ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ، ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﻣﻘﺎوم ﺑﻪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﮐﻠﺰا و ذرت داﻧﻪای ﺑﻪ ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻻن ذﯾﺮﺑﻂ و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰان ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزی اﺳﺘﺎن ﺗﻬﺮان ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﺷﺪ.

comprehensive hydrological -economic modeling of agriculture and water resources of tehran province to assess the potential effects of global warming

introduction: in the present study, the integration of comprehensive biophysical-economic modeling system of agriculture and water resources in tehran province was investigated, in order to assess the potential effects of global warming. materials and methods: using general circulation models the effects of greenhouse gases on the average climatic variables of temperature and precipitation under the emission scenarios a1b, a2 and b1 were investigated. a positive mathematical programming model was used to investigate changes in products yields on cropping patterns. findings: increasing the farmers’ desire to develop the acreage of irrigated wheat, corn and canola and reducing the acreage of irrigated barley, tomato, watermelon and sunflower in the cropping patterns of the northern and southern basins of tehran province is an important result of application of integrated climate scenario 2 °c increase in temperature and 20 mm decrease in precipitation in this study. under the terms of the climate change occurrence, watermelon and sunflower with the most decreasing changes in yield 13/1 and 17/7 percent and acreage 68/8 and 31/9 percent as the most sensitive products in cropping patterns were identified. conclusion: finally, adopting appropriate production management and market regulation policies to control the production of wheat and barley and also, paying attention to the development of durable products acrage to climate change such as rapeseed and corn to the relevant officials and planners of the agricultural sector of tehran province were suggested.