ارزیابی دقت روش‌های برآورد ضریب تشت به منظور محاسبه تبخیر تعرق روزانه در شرق حوضه دریاچه ارومیه

یکی از اقدامات اولیه در راستای مدیریت بهینه مصرف آب در بخش کشاورزی، برآورد نیاز آبی از طریق محاسبه تبخیر تعرق می‌باشد. در مطالعه حاضر برای برآورد تبخیر تعرق در شرق حوضه دریاچه ارومیه، از روش تشت تبخیر استفاده شده است. برای این منظور از داده‌های ایستگاه‌های سینوپنیک تبریز، سراب، مراغه، بستان‌آباد و هریس واقع در شرق حوضه دریاچه ارومیه استفاده گردید. مقادیر ضریب تشت با استفاده از شش روش تجربی شامل کونیکا، آلن و پرویت، اشنایدر، اشنایدر اصلاح شده، اورنگ و محمد و همکاران برآورد گردید. برای تعیین بهترین روش برآورد ضریب تشت نیز، مقادیر تبخیر تعرق حاصل از هر روش با مقادیر تبخیر تعرق حاصل از روش استاندارد فائو پنمن مانتیث مقایسه شد. به‌منظور ارزیابی نتایج نیز از شاخص‌های آماری ضریب همبستگی (r)، ریشه میانگین مربعات خطا (rmse)، میانگین انحراف مطلق (mad) و دیاگرام‌های باکس و ویولن پلات استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که در بستان‌آباد روش اشنایدر اصلاح شده، در تبریز روش آلن و پرویت، در سراب روش محمد و همکاران، در مراغه روش محمد و همکاران و در هریس روش اشنایدر اصلاح شده به ترتیب با مقادیر rmse معادل 1.33، 2.02، 1.47، 1.49 و 1.37 میلی‌متر بر روز بهترین روش برآورد ضریب تشت می‌باشند. همچنین به‌طور کلی در تمام ایستگاه‌ها، روش اورنگ بیشترین خطا را در برآورد تبخیر تعرق مرجع روزانه دارد. به‌منظور کاربرد دقیق‌تر مدل‌های تجربی برآورد ضریب تشت برای محاسبه تبخیر تعرق، لازم است مدل مناسب برای هر منطقه تعیین شده و در صورت لزوم بر اساس شرایط اقلیمی منطقه مورد نظر واسنجی شود.

evaluating the accuracy of methods for estimating the coefficient of pan to calculate daily evapotranspiration in the east of lake urmia basin

one of the first steps for optimal management of water consumption in the agricultural sector is to estimate water needs by determining evapotranspiration. there are several direct and indirect methods for estimating evapotranspiration; each one has advantages and disadvantages. due to the importance of measuring evapotranspiration in most hydrological studies and estimating the water requirement of plants and due to the limitation of the possibility of direct measurement، there is a serious need for experimental methods to estimate evapotranspiration. in the present study، reference evapotranspiration was initially estimated at selected stations in the east of lake urmia. then، experimental methods of calculating the pan coefficient were used to calculate the reference evapotranspiration using evaporation pan data considering the fao standard method.methodology: the aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of pan coefficient estimation methods to calculate daily evapotranspiration in the east of lake urmia basin. there are several direct and indirect methods for estimating evapotranspiration; each one has advantages and disadvantages. the evaporation pan method has been used to estimate evapotranspiration values. for this purpose، data from tabriz، sarab، maragheh، bostanabad and herris synoptic stations located in the east of urmia lake basin were used. the meteorological data utilized in the current study are minimum، average and maximum temperature، sunny hours، minimum، average and maximum relative humidity، wind speed، and evaporation from the pan. it is worth mentioning that due to the limitation of recording evaporation pan data، the present study was carried out using data for 6 months of the year (may to october) in which continuous data are available. the values of the pan coefficient were estimated using six experimental methods including konica، allen and parvit، snyder، modified snyder، orang and mohammad et al. to determine the best method for estimating the pan coefficient، the evapotranspiration values obtained from the application of each method were compared with the evapotranspiration values obtained from the standard fao penman monteith method. furthermore، statistical meters of r، rmse، mae and box and violin plot diagrams were used to evaluate the obtained results.findings: in this study، six experimental models were used to estimate the pan coefficient. based on the obtained results، the highest range of average monthly changes of the pan coefficient is related to the orang method. also، considering the average monthly values obtained for the pan coefficient، the orang method estimates the reference evapotranspiration to a considerable amount. the results showed that in bostanabad and harris modified snyder method، in sarab and maragheh method of mohammad et al. and in tabriz allen and parvit method are the best methods for estimating pan coefficient. also، in general، in all stations، the orang method has the highest error in estimating pan coefficient. in order to use experimental models for estimating the pan coefficient to calculate evapotranspiration، it is necessary to determine the appropriate model for each region based on the climatic conditions.conclusion: due to the importance of estimating reference evapotranspiration in most hydrological studies as well as estimating the water requirement of plants، several direct and indirect methods have been developed. in the present study، six models of estimating the pan coefficient were evaluated in order to calculate the daily reference evapotranspiration using evaporation pan data. the obtained results showed that in general، the models for estimating the coefficient of the pan with acceptable accuracy can be used to calculate evapotranspiration. meanwhile، due to the effect of climatic factors in these models، it is necessary to evaluate the efficiency of each model in different climatic conditions and determine the appropriate model for each region. for example، the results of the present study showed that the orang method for the study area (east of lake urmia) does not provide suitable results and if this model is used for the east of lake urmia، it is necessary to calibrate the model. also، based on the obtained results، the accuracy of other methods is close to each other. in bostanabad and herris، the modified snyder method، in sarab and maragheh، the method of mohammad et al.، and in tabriz، the method of allen and parvit، are the best methods in estimating daily reference evapotranspiration.