مقایسه اثرات تورم و بیکاری بر امنیت اجتماعی در ایران

ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ: ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎرﮔﯿﺮی ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﻫﺎی اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﻧﺎدرﺳﺖ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﺎ اﯾﺠﺎد ﻧﺎﺑﺮاﺑﺮی ﻫﺎی درآﻣﺪی و ﺷﮑﺎف اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ، زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺑﺮوز اﻧﻮاع ﺟﺮاﺋﻢ را ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻪ و اﻣﻨﯿﺖ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ را ﺑﻪ ﺧﻄﺮ اﻧﺪازد. ﻫﺪف ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ، ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ اﻣﻨﯿﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺄﮐﯿﺪ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺆﻟﻔﻪ ﻫﺎی ﻧﺮخ ﺗﻮرم و ﺑﯿﮑﺎری اﺳﺖ. روش: ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ از ﻧﻮع ﮐﻤﯽ اﺳﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ، ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ آﻣﺎری اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﯾﺮان ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺑﻮد. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺪوﯾﻦ ﻣﺪﻟﯽ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﯽ ﻣﺒﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺗﺌﻮری ﻫﺎی اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی و اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از داده ﻫﺎی ﺳﺮی زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎی 97- 1373 و ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎر ﺑﺮدن ﻣﺪل اﺗﻮرﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮﻧﯽ ﺑﺮداری ﺑﺎ وﻗﻔﻪ ﮔﺴﺘﺮده )ardl( ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ و ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ اﺛﺮات ﺗﻮرم و ﺑﯿﮑﺎری ﺑﺮ اﻣﻨﯿﺖ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ در اﯾﺮان ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ از ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺟﺮم ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻧﺒﻮد اﻣﻨﯿﺖ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎ: ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺿﺮاﯾﺐ ﺗﺨﻤﯿﻨﯽ ﻧﺮخ ﺗﻮرم در ﮐﻮﺗﺎه ﻣﺪت ﺑﺎ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ 0/16 ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ و ﻣﻌﻨﺎداری ﺑﺮ ﻧﺮخ ﺟﺮم و ﺟﻨﺎﯾﺖ دارد. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ، ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻧﺮخ ﺑﯿﮑﺎری در ﮐﻮﺗﺎه ﻣﺪت ﺑﺎ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﻣﻌﻨﺎدار 0/08 ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ اﻣﻨﯿﺖ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ را ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻗﺮار دﻫﺪ. در ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت ﻧﺮخ ﺗﻮرم ﺑﺎ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﻣﻌﻨﺎدار 2/24 و ﻧﺮخ ﺑﯿﮑﺎری ﺑﺎ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﻣﻌﻨﺎدار 0/18 ﺑﺮ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺟﺮم و ﺟﻨﺎﯾﺖ و در ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ، اﻣﻨﯿﺖ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﯽ ﮔﺬارﻧﺪ. ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮔﯿﺮی: اﻣﻨﯿﺖ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ دارای رﯾﺸﻪ ﻫﺎی اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی اﺳﺖ. ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ، ﺗﻮرم و ﺑﯿﮑﺎری در ﮐﻮﺗﺎه ﻣﺪت و ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت اﺛﺮ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ و ﻣﻌﻨﺎدار ﺑﺮ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺟﺮاﺋﻢ در اﯾﺮان دارد. ﻻزم ﺑﻪ ذﮐﺮ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ اﺛﺮات ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت ﻫﺮ دو ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ از اﺛﺮات ﮐﻮﺗﺎه ﻣﺪت آن ﻫﺎ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. از ﻃﺮف دﯾﮕﺮ، ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ، ﺗﻮرم ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺑﯿﮑﺎری، ﻫﻢ در ﮐﻮﺗﺎه ﻣﺪت و ﻫﻢ در ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت، ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮی ﺑﺮ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺟﺮاﺋﻢ ﻣﯽ ﮔﺬارد، در ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ اﻣﻨﯿﺖ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ را ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻗﺮار ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ.

Comparing the Effects of Inflation and Unemployment on Social Security in Iran

Introduction: Incorrect economic policies can create a variety of crimes and endanger social security by creating income inequalities and social gaps. The purpose of this paper is to examine the economic factors affecting security by focusing on the components of inflation and unemployment. Method: This is a quantitative research. Also, the statistical population of this study will be Iranian economy. This paper presents an empirical model based on economic theories and the use of time series data during 19942018 and applying the ARDL model to compare the effects of inflation and unemployment on social security in Iran. In this study crime variable was used as indicator of lack of social security. Finding: According to the estimated coefficients of inflation rate in the short run with a coefficient of 0.16 has a positive and significant effect on crime rate. Also, the shortterm unemployment rate variable with a significant coefficient of 0.08 can affect social security. In the long run, inflation rates with a significant coefficient of 2.24 and unemployment rates with a significant coefficient of 0.18 influence crime rates as a result of social security. Conclusion: it can be argued that social security has economic roots. According to the results of this study, inflation and unemployment in the short and long term have a positive and significant effect on crime rates in Iran. It should be noted that the longterm effects of both variables are greater than their shortterm effects. On the other hand, according to the results of the research, inflation in the short run and long run will have a greater impact on crime rates (social security).