شاخص‌های بارشی آشکارکننده تغییر اقلیم در محدوده سایت‌های پایش زوال بلوط در استان چهار محال و بختیاری

رﺧﺪاد ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ از ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺧﺸﮑﯿﺪﮔﯽ و زوال ﺟﻨﮕﻞﻫﺎی زاﮔﺮس اﺳﺖ. وﻗﻮع ﺑﺎرشﻫﺎی ﺳﯿﻞآﺳﺎ و ﺧﺸﮑﺴﺎﻟﯽﻫﺎی ﺷﺪﯾﺪ، اﮐﻮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎی ﺟﻨﮕﻠﯽ را ﺑﺎ ﺗﻨﺶ ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ و زﻣﯿﻨﻪ را ﺑﺮای ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ آﻓﺎت و ﺑﯿﻤﺎریﻫﺎ و در ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ زوال و ﺧﺸﮑﯿﺪﮔﯽ ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﻨﺪ. ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ،ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎی ﺑﺎرﺷﯽ اﺳﺘﺎﻧﺪارد ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ آﺷﮑﺎرﮐﻨﻨﺪه‌ رﺧﺪاد ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ در ﺳﺎﯾﺖﻫﺎی ﭘﺎﯾﺶ زوال در اﺳﺘﺎن ﭼﻬﺎرﻣﺤﺎل و ﺑﺨﺘﯿﺎری اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮای اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر از دادهﻫﺎی ﺑﺎرش روزاﻧﮥ ﻧﺰدﯾﮏﺗﺮﯾﻦ اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎهﻫﺎی ﺳﯿﻨﻮﭘﺘﯿﮏ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﯾﺖﻫﺎی ﭘﺎﯾﺶ زوال ﺑﺮای دوره‌ آﻣﺎری 1398-1371 اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. دادهﻫﺎ از ﻧﻈﺮ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ و ﻫﻤﮕﻨﯽ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ و آﻣﺎده ورود ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪل ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. ﺑﺮای اﺟﺮای ﻣﺪل از ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار climpact در ﻣﺤﯿﻂ r اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. از ﺑﯿﻦ 61 ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺧﺮوﺟﯽ ﻫﺸﺖ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﺎرﺷﯽ آﺷﮑﺎرﮐﻨﻨﺪه‌ رﺧﺪاد ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ,prcptot, cdd, cwd, r10mm, r20mmrx1day, rx2day, rx5day اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮ روی ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎ ﺷﯿﺐ روﻧﺪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات، ﺧﻄﺎی ﺷﯿﺐ روﻧﺪ و ﻣﻌﻨﯽداری ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ و ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎرش ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﻧﻮﺳﺎنﻫﺎی زﯾﺎدی داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ و در ﻓﺎﺻﻠﮥ 1385 ﺗﺎ 1398 ﻫﻤﮥ ﺳﺎﯾﺖﻫﺎی ﭘﺎﯾﺶ زوال ﯾﮏ دوره‌ ﮐﻢﺑﺎرﺷﯽ را ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ ﮐﺮدهاﻧﺪ. ازآﻧﺠﺎ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﮥ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ در دوﻣﯿﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﮥ ﺑﯿﺸﯿﻨﻪ ﺑﺎرش ﮐﺸﻮر ﻗﺮار دارد و از دو ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎرﺷﯽ ﻣﺪﯾﺘﺮاﻧﻪای و ﺳﻮداﻧﯽ ﺑﻬﺮهﻣﻨﺪ اﺳﺖ، ﻓﺮاواﻧﯽ ﺑﺎرشﻫﺎی ﺳﻨﮕﯿﻦ و ﻓﻮق ﺳﻨﮕﯿﻦ آن زﯾﺎد اﺳﺖ و ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎی ﺑﺎرش ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ ﯾﮏروزه، دوروزه و ﭘﻨﺞروزه در ﻣﺤﺪوده‌ ﺳﺎﯾﺖﻫﺎی زوال ﭘﺘﺎﻧﺴﯿﻞ رﺧﺪاد ﺳﯿﻞﻫﺎی ﺳﻨﮕﯿﻦ وﺟﻮد دارد. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ روﻧﺪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ در وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد و ﺗﺪاوم آن در آﯾﻨﺪه، ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ ﭘﺘﺎﻧﺴﯿﻞ ﺑﺎرش و وﯾﮋﮔﯽﻫﺎی آن ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪﯾﺮان اﮐﻮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺟﻨﮕﻠﯽ در اﺟﺮای ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎی ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪ ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ﺑﺎرشﻫﺎی ﺣﺪی و ﺳﯿﻞآﺳﺎ و ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻞ آن ﺑﻪ ﻓﺮﺻﺘﯽ ﺑﺮای ﺳﺎزﮔﺎری ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ در ﺟﻬﺖ ﺣﻔﻆ و اﺣﯿﺎی درﺧﺘﺎن ﺟﻨﮕﻠﯽ ﮐﻤﮏ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﮐﺮد.

precipitation indicators of climate change in decline monitoring sites in chaharmahal and bakhtiari province

one of the most important factors affecting the drought and decay of zagros forests is the occurrence of climate change. occurrence of torrential rains and severe droughts puts forest ecosystems under stress and provides a breeding ground for pests and diseases, resulting in degradation and drought. the aim of this study is to investigate the precipitation indices of the global standard for climate change detection in decay monitoring sites in chaharmahal and bakhtiari province. for this purpose, daily precipitation data from the nearest synoptic stations to the decay monitoring sites were used for the statistical period of 19912019. the data were analyzed for quality and homogeneity and were ready to enter the model. climpact software was used to run the model in r environment. out of 61 output indices, eight precipitation indices detecting climate change, including: prcptot, cdd, cwd, r10mm, r10mm, rx1day, rx2day, rx5day were extracted. the trend of slope of change, trend slope error and significance of changes were calculated and evaluated on the indicators. the results showed that the annual rainfall fluctuated a lot and between 2006 and 2019, all decay monitoring sites experienced a low rainfall period. because the study area is located in the second highest rainfall region of the country and benefits from both mediterranean and sudanese rainfall systems, the frequency of heavy and super heavy rainfall is high and based on the maximum rainfall indicators of one, two, and five days, there is a potential for heavy flooding in the range of decayed sites. given the trend of climate change in the current situation and its continuation in the future, recognizing the potential of rainfall and its characteristics can help forest ecosystem managers in the implementation of threat management programs caused by excessive rainfall and flooding and turning it into an opportunity to adapt to climate change in order to preserve and rehabilitate forest trees.