ارزیابی تاثیر ریسک‌های زنجیره تامین بر عملکرد توسعه محصول جدید با استفاده از شبکه بیزین

به دلیل آنکه عوامل زیادی از زنجیره تامین بر تولید، طراحی، توزیع و معرفتی محصول جدید تاثیرگذار هستند، شناخت زنجیره تامین و ریسک ها موجود در آن از مرحله ی تامین مواد اولیه تا ارائه محصول به بازاریکی از چالش های مهم بوده که می تواند بر عملکرد توسعه محصول جدید تاثیرگذار باشد. در این پژوهش ابتدا فرآیند توسعه محصول جدید در خط تولید کارخانه پوشاک درنظرگرفته شد؛ سپس با بررستی پیشینه پژوهش، هریک از ریسک های زنجیره تامین و ابعاد عملکردی محصول انتخاب شده شناسایی شدند. به منظور انتخاب مهم ترین ریسک های این زنجیره از تکنیک دلفی به کمک ابزار پرسشنامه، به منظور استخراج روابط بین معیارهای اصلی ریسک از طریق مصاحبه و روش تجزیه وتحلیل اثر متقابل و درنهایت با استفاده از شبکه بیزین به بررسی تاثیرگذاری ریسک های شناسایی شده بر عملکرد محصول جدید منتخب، تحت تحلیل حساسیت و تجزیه وتحلیل سناریو پرداخته شد. یافته ها نشان داده است که احتمال وقوع ریسک های محیطی و تامین نسبت به سایر ریسک ها بالاتر بوده و سه ریسک عملیاتی، توزیع و تقاضت با تاثیرپذیری از ریسک های محیطی و تامین به طور مستقیم بیشترین تاثیرگذاری را بر عملکرد توسعه محصول جدید به خصوص بعد عملکردی کیفیت داشته اند.

assessment of supply chain risks on new product development performance using bayesian network (case study: happyland garment manufacturing factory)

in light of the continuous and rapid changes in global competition, companies face the imperative of consistently introducing new products or expanding their existing product lines to maintain their competitive edge. recognizing that numerous factors within the supply chain influence the production, design, distribution, and introduction of new products, understanding supply chain risks is crucial, spanning from the procurement of raw materials to the delivery of products to the market. consequently, risk management stands as one of the most critical challenges within the supply chain, significantly impacting new product development (npd) performance. this research seeks to answer the primary question: how and to what extent do various supply chain risks affect newly developed products? while prior research has employed various methods to evaluate and manage supply chain risks, few models have explored the interplay of these risks on each other and their influence on performance dimensions. in this study, based on a review of theoretical foundations and prior research within the clothing manufacturing sector, we identified dimensions of newly developed products and supply chain risks. we employed the delphi technique through interviews to identify the most significant risks. subsequently, we employed the cross impact analysis method to elucidate relationships between these factors. finally, we utilized bayesian networks to analyze the impact of identified risks on the performance of the selected new product, conducting sensitivity and scenario analyses. the findings indicate that environmental and supply risks are more likely to manifest than other risks, with three operational, distribution, and demand risks, influenced by environmental and supply risks, exerting the most direct impact on new product performance, particularly in the dimension of quality.introductionmodern organizations recognize that traditional competitive strategies, such as improving quality and reducing costs, no longer suffice to remain competitive. research has demonstrated that numerous new product development npd projects face failure for various reasons. effective risk identification and management, particularly concerning supply chain risks in npd projects marked by a high degree of uncertainty, emerge as pivotal factors for npd success. in this context, the clothing sector, characterized by a complex supply chain structure, has been extensively studied. however, prior research has predominantly examined existing risks individually, overlooking the interactions between risk components and their simultaneous effects on one or more project objectives. in this research, we not only assess the simultaneous impact of risks on product performance using the bayesian network method, an effective approach in supply chain risk analysis, but also investigate the severity of risk impacts under different scenarios. this research addresses three primary objectives:identification of supply chain risks in the clothing industry based on background research and case studies.determination of interdependencies among variables using conditional modeling.evaluation of the influence of supply chain risks on new product performance using the bayesian network method under varying scenarios.literature reviewnumerous researchers have investigated supply chain risks and their repercussions on product and organizational performance. asgharenjad nouri et al. (2021), in their article titled the effect of risk management on new product development in the banking industry, explored the impact of various risk indicators on new product development.