طراحی مدل هماهنگی زنجیره تامین بشردوستانه بازسازی مسکن‌ پس از فاجعه سیل با رویکرد شبیه‌سازی عامل‌بنیان

هدف: این پژوهش به‌دنبال مدل‌سازی زنجیره تامین بشردوستانه برای بازسازی مسکن آسیب‌دیدگان سیل در شرایط تورمی و غیرتورمی است.روش: برای مدل‌سازی، از شبیه‌سازی عامل‌بنیان استفاده شد. مورد ­مطالعه یکی از روستاهای مازندران با 160 خانوار و 60درصد تخریب در سیل سال 1398 است. روش تحقیق کاربردی و از نوع تحلیلی توصیفی است.یافته‌ها: سه عامل دولت، خیران بنام و آسیب‌دیدگان بی‌خانمان شناسایی شد و دو سناریو دریافت کمک‌های دولتی یا فقط دریافت کمک‌های خیران بنام در شرایط تورمی و غیرتورمی مطرح شد و روابط هر یک، ویژگی آنها و در نهایت رفتار و تصمیم‌های عوامل با روش عامل‌بنیان شبیه‌سازی شد. در نهایت از طریق مصاحبه، شاخص‌های هماهنگی در بازسازی مسکن سیل‌زدگان شناسایی و هماهنگی در هریک از سناریوها ارزیابی شد.نتیجه‌گیری: طبق نتایج شبیه‌سازی، میزان هماهنگی زنجیرۀ تامین بشردوستانه بین عوامل، در سناریو دریافت کمک از خیران بیشتر است و خانه‌های بازسازی شده در شرایط غیرتورمی در هر دو سناریو بیشتر است.

Designing a Humanitarian Supply Chain Coordination Model for Housing Reconstruction after Floods: An Agent-Based Simulation

Objective: This study aimed to simulate a humanitarian supply chain coordination model to reconstruct houses of flood victims under inflationary and noninflationary conditions.Methods: A village in the Northern Iranian Province of Mazandaran with 160 households was studied. 60% of the village was ruined due to the floods that inundated the region in 2019. An agentbased simulation was used in this applied research. To achieve the research goal, the factors (actors) of the humanitarian supply chain for housing reconstruction in the flood disaster were identified. The housing reconstruction factors in the flood humanitarian supply chain were then determined. The relationship between the actors of the humanitarian supply chain to coordinate the reconstruction of housing in the flood disaster was identified. Finally, a model of factor behaviors for coordinating housing reconstruction in the flood humanitarian supply chain was presented. Considering the use of the factorbased simulation method to answer research questions, this was an analyticaldescriptive study. It was causal in terms of the purpose of applied research. In terms of the data collection method, since it sought to identify factors and the relationship between them, it was a comparison. Also, according to Walker’s classification, this research was an analyticalmathematical one.Results: Three agents of the government, celebrity donors, and flood victims (with damaged houses) were identified. Then, two scenarios of receiving government aid or only aid from celebrity donors under inflationary and noninflationary conditions were considered. The agents’ internal relationships, characteristics, behaviors, and decisions were also simulated using agentbased modeling. Finally, through interviews, the indicators of coordination in the reconstruction of floodaffected housing were identified, and coordination in each of the scenarios was evaluated.Conclusion: As proved, in the receiving donor’s financial aids scenario, the humanitarian supply chain coordination score was higher among the agents. Also, the houses reconstructed under noninflationary conditions were higher in both scenarios.