determining the incidence rate and risk factors of brucellosis in zanjan province (iran) from 2012 to 2017: a spatiotemporal analysis

Background & objective: zanjan is reported as a hotspot region of brucellosis infection in iran. this longitudinal study aimed to determine the epidemiologic pattern, as well as the risk of brucellosis by using geospatial estimation in zanjan province. materials & methods: the data used in this study were collected from health centers in zanjan province from 2012 to 2017 after obtaining the approval of the committee of fighting infectious diseases. this longitudinal study was used to determine the annual pattern of the disease and identify high-risk areas using moran’s statistics, and then was analyzed using the spatiotemporal cox model. results: this research showed that the number of affected people in the province was increased after 2012, and the maximum number was observed from 2013 to 2014. however, from 2015 to 2016, there was a significant decrease. spatial variations showed that the incidence of the disease increased in all areas over these six years. the temporal variations indicated that, from 2012 to 2017, the incidence of brucellosis in spring and summer was higher than in other seasons; thereafter, the incidence peak was witnessed in june, july, and august. conclusion: the results of this study can be used to determine the starting point of future programs and evaluate their effectiveness.