spatiotemporal projections of global sea-level rise: a high-resolution cmip6-based analysis for 2015–2050

Accurate and high-resolution projections of sea-level rise (slr) are critical for assessing regional climate risks and formulating adaptation strategies. this study presents a high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of global slr from 2015 to 2050, leveraging the latest cmip6 model ensemble under moderate emission scenarios. our findings project a global mean sea-level rise (gmslr) of 83.7 mm, driven predominantly by thermal expansion and ice-sheet melt. the spatial pattern is profoundly heterogeneous, characterized by a pronounced dipole: maximum rises exceeding 178 mm are identified in subtropical gyres due to steric effects, while significant sea-level fall occurs near melting ice sheets (down to -237.5 mm) due to gravitational and glacial isostatic adjustment fingerprints. this non-uniformity exposes ~89% of global coastlines to rates exceeding 30 mm/decade, drastically increasing inundation risks for low-lying regions and megacities. our results underscore the urgency for policy-relevant, localized adaptation planning that accounts for these fine-scale slr disparities and the potential for higher upper-end estimates due to ice-sheet instability.