market responses of crude oil tanker freight rates to global supply shocks: implications for risk management and contractual decision-making

Understanding how crude oil tanker markets respond to global supply shocks is critical for managing freight rate risk and selecting appropriate chartering strategies under uncertainty. while existing studies predominantly emphasize oil price volatility, relatively limited attention has been paid to the transmission of supply-side shocks into tanker freight markets and their implications for contractual decision-making.this study analyzes the dynamic relationship between global crude oil supply shocks and freight rate behavior in crude oil tanker markets using aggregated global market indicators and publicly available time-series data covering the period 2005–2023. supply shock episodes are identified based on documented disruptions in global oil production, and their effects are examined through changes in freight rate levels, volatility, and contract preference indicators across spot and time charter markets.the results show that supply shocks do not affect tanker freight markets uniformly. during major supply disruption periods, average freight rate volatility increases by approximately 28–35% relative to non-shock periods, while short-term freight rate fluctuations intensify within a 3–6-month adjustment window following the shock onset. these periods are associated with a statistically significant shift in contractual orientation, reflected in an increase of 22–27% in time charter activity relative to spot market exposure, indicating a preference for revenue stabilization under elevated uncertainty.by quantitatively linking market-level supply shocks to freight market volatility and observable changes in contractual behavior, this study contributes to the literature on maritime economics and shipping risk management. the findings provide actionable insights for tanker operators seeking to align chartering strategies with evolving risk conditions, while maintaining applicability across global crude oil tanker markets without reliance on region-specific or politically sensitive assumptions.