تحلیل ظرفیت ‏ها و موانع جمعیت ‏پذیری مناطق ساحلی غرب مکران (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان جاسک)

یکی از مهمترین چالش‏های فعلی جوامع در حال توسعه، قطبی شدن جمعیت و سکونت و به موازات آن عدم استفاده از مناطق دارای ظرفیت‏های طبیعی برای توسعه و استقرار جمعیت است. سیاستگذاری فضایی جمعیت به مثابه یک روش عقلایی در جهت پراکنش منطقی جمعیت، جلوگیری از قطبی شدن و بلااستفاده شدن سرزمین و ظرفیت‏های آن است. سواحل مکران از جمله مناطقی در ایران است که بارگزاری جمعیت و استقرار فعالیت‏ها در آن متناسب با ظرفیت‏های محیطی شکل نگرفته است. این امر ضمن سبب شده علاوه بر عدم استفاده از ظرفیت‏های محیطی، مکران به یکی از مناطق محروم کشور تبدیل شود.پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی ظرفیت‏ها و موانع جمعیت‌پذیری مناطق ساحلی غرب مکران، شهرستان جاسک به عنوان قطب توسعه غرب مکران را مورد مطالعه قرار داده است. در این راستا ضمن شناسایی ظرفیت‏ها و محدودیت‏های منطقه، برای ارائه راهبردهایی جهت رفع این موانع، ابتدا با استفاده از مدل swot نقاط قوت، ضعف، فرصت وتهدید منطقه مورد بررسی قرار گرفت که نتایج این بررسی نشان داد با توجه به شرایط موجود منطقه، استراتژی تهاجمی مناسب‌ترین استراتژی برای رفع موانع جمعیت پذیری مناطق ساحلی شهرستان جاسک است. در مرحله بعد به جهت اولویت‌بندی راهبردهای تعیین شده، باتوجه به میزان درجه اهمیت‌شان در امر توجه و اجرا، جهت رفع شدن موانع جمعیت‌پذیری منطقه در کوتاه‌ترین زمان ممکن از مدل qspm استفاده شد و راهبردهای تعیین شده اولویت‏بندی شدند.

analysis of the population's settlement capacities and barriers in the west makoran coastal areas (case study: jask county)

one of the most significant existing challenges in developing societies is demographic and residential polarization and subsequent abandonment of the regions with natural potentials for development and settlement of human population. policies on spatial distribution of the population is considered a rational alternative for normal population distribution and to prevent polarization and abandonment of land and its potentials. human population settlement and economic activities have not been established proportionate to their environmental and natural capacities along makoran coastal regions leading to lack of exploitation of natural potentials in makoran region. current study is intended to identify and study potentials and barriers to population settlement in coastal regions of western makoran zone, jask county as the main development pole in western makoran. research methodologycurrent research is an applied approach with a descriptive-analytical methodology. with respect to data collection method, this is a documentary survey. first, after a review of literature and a poll of experts, respective authorities and informed people, the most principal internal and external factors that affected the absorption of population in jask were selected suing swot model and excel software. then, the selected internal and external factors were weighted from 1 to 9 by 15 purposefully selected experts. next, the appropriate strategy for the respective region was identified and some strategies for elimination of barriers to population settlement were proposed. in the next step, in order to prioritize the strategies specified in the previous step, quantitative strategic planning model (qspm) was applied to prioritize the strategies according to the degree of importance and in terms of cost and a shorter time to achieve an optimal result in future. in this regard, potentials and limitations of the region were identified and swot analysis was applied to investigate strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the study area. the results suggest that regarding the existing conditions of the region, an aggressive strategy is the most appropriate alternative to eliminate the barriers to population settlement along coastal areas of jask county. in the next phase, in order to prioritize the specified strategies with respect to the degree of their importance for elimination of barriers to population settlement within the shortest possible time, qspm model was applied and the strategies were prioritized. in this study, the first priority of the region is application of infrastructure potentials such as railways and geographical and strategic location of this area as the most suitable international corridor. in current study, different internal and external factors along with strengths and weaknesses of the region from environmental, cultural, economic, political and security aspects were investigated. the results suggested that the most suitable strategy for population settlement in the study area is an aggressive strategy to effectively and efficiently exploit the potentials of the region using internal strengths and external opportunities. concerning the results, jask is located in the most appropriate strategic situation so that applying an aggressive strategy and its implementation can effectively eliminate barriers to population settlement across the region. assuming the persistence of international sanctions that will reduce possibility to absorb foreign capital for development, reliance on internal potentials must be prescribed. as the results of current research suggest, following prioritization by qspm, application of communicative potentials related to the geographic and strategic location of the study area as the most suitable international corridor, converting the traditional agricultural system to a modern agricultural system and proper use of fertile land to grow tropical and out-of-season products, management and investment to promote coastal efficiency of the region for aquaculture are among the factors that will increase job opportunities and population settlement in the study region. totally, jask county has been influenced by several geographical, security, socioeconomic and managerial factors that have acted as barriers to absorption of human population. in order to improve population settlement and distribution, these factors must be controlled by planning. the lack of long-term institutional strategic planning for the development of the region s infrastructure, the lack of a comprehensive development plan, despite the consensus of the country s officials on the development of the east and south-east axis, and the neglect of the region s capacities, have more impact and determination.