آسیب‌شناسی فرایند برنامه‌ریزی مسکن در نظام سیاستگذاری مسکن مطالعه موردی: شهر قائن

مسکن ازجمله بخش‌های مهم اقتصادی است که رابطه تنگاتنگ و وسیعی با سایر بخش‌های اقتصادی دارد. ازاین‌رو برنامه‌ریزی با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری می‌تواند سبب ایجاد روندی مثبت در وضعیت آینده برنامه‌ریزی مسکن شود و از بروز و تحقق آینده نامطلوب جلوگیری کند. پژوهش حاضر از لحاظ هدف از نوع توسعه‌ای کاربردی است. روش گردآوری اطلاعات کتابخانه‌ای، میدانی است. جامعه آماری پژوهش 20 نفر از متخصصان و کارشناسان در حوزه مسکن می‌باشند. که بر اساس الگوی شوارتز و به روش steep است. ابزار تحلیل داده‌ها نرم‌افزار میک مک می‌باشد. نتایج حاکی از این امر است عوامل انتخاب‌شده تاثیر زیاد و پراکنده‌ای بر همدیگر داشته‌اند. درواقع سیستم از وضعیت ناپایداری برخوردار بوده است. از مجموع 253 رابطه ماتریسی قابل ارزیابی،111 رابطه (43.57 درصد) دارای اثرات متقاطع سه یعنی از تاثیرگذاری و تاثیرپذیری زیادی برخوردار بوده‌اند. 86 رابطه (34 درصد) دارای اثرات متقاطع 2 بوده، یعنی نقش تقویت‌کننده و رابطه متوسط داشته‌اند، 34 رابطه (13.4 درصد) دارای اثرات متقاطع 1 بوده، بدین معنی که اثرات ضعیفی نسبت به هم داشته‌اند،36 رابطه (14.2 درصد) از اثرات متقاطع صفر برخوردارند. بدان معنا است که، عوامل بر همدیگر تاثیر نداشته یا از همدیگر تاثیر نپذیرفته‌اند. به‌طورکلی می‌توان نتیجه گرفت که اکثر روابط بین متغیرها دارای رتبه 3 یا بسیار قوی برآورد شده است. بنابراین 6 عامل (کمبود زمین، وجود بافت ریزدانه، افزایش اختیارات دولت‌های محلی، بورس‌بازی زمین، ورود و خروج سازندگان غیرحرفه‌ای و استفاده از مصالح بومی در سخت و ساز) به‌عنوان عوامل کلیدی که بیشترین تاثیر را برای سناریوی مطلوب در مسیر آسیب‌پذیری مسکن دارند انتخاب گردیده است.

pathology of the housing planning process in the housing policy system: the case study of city qaen

a b s t r a c thousing is one of the crucial economic sectors with extensive and close connections to other economic sectors. therefore, planning with a foresight approach can create a positive trend in the future state of housing planning and prevent the emergence and realization of an undesirable future. the present research is applied and developmental in terms of its objective. the methods for data collection are both library and field studies. the research sample comprises 20 specialists and experts in the housing sector. the analysis follows schwartz's model and employs the steep method. the tool for data analysis is the micmac software. the results indicate that the selected factors have significant and widespread effects on each other. in fact, the system has been in an unstable state. out of a total of 253 evaluable matrix relationships, 111 relationships (43.57%) have high cross-impact effects, meaning they have substantial influence and are significantly influenced by other factors. eighty-six relationships (34%) have moderate cross-impact effects, serving a reinforcing and intermediate role. thirty-four relationships (13.4%) have weak cross-impact effects, indicating minor influence between factors. thirty-six relationships (14.2%) have zero cross-impact effects, meaning the factors do not affect each other or are unaffected by each other. overall, it can be concluded that most relationships between variables are ranked as 3 or very strong. therefore, six factors (land shortage, presence of fine-grained textures, increased local government authority, land speculation, entry and exit of non-professional builders, and the use of local materials in construction) are identified as key factors having the most significant impact on the desirable scenario in the vulnerability path of housing.extended abstractintroductionhousing is one of the crucial economic sectors with extensive and close connections to other economic sectors. therefore, planning with a foresight approach can create a positive trend in the future state of housing planning and prevent the emergence and realization of an undesirable future. in fact, housing is a fundamental human need essential for both quality of life and sustainable development. infrastructure projects are pivotal to social sustainability. in fact, the sustainable future of cities and the benefits of urbanization largely depend on forward-looking housing approaches. methodologythe present research is applied and developmental in terms of its objective. the methods for data collection are both library and field studies. the research sample comprises 20 specialists and experts in the housing sector. the analysis follows schwartz's model and employs the steep method. the tool for data analysis is the micmac software. results and discussionthe results indicate that the selected factors have significant and widespread effects on each other. in fact, the system has been in an unstable state. out of a total of 253 evaluable matrix relationships, 111 relationships (43.57%) have high cross-impact effects, meaning they have substantial influence and are significantly influenced by other factors. eighty-six relationships (34%) have moderate cross-impact effects, serving a reinforcing and intermediate role. thirty-four relationships (13.4%) have weak cross-impact effects, indicating minor influence between factors. thirty-six relationships (14.2%) have zero cross-impact effects, meaning the factors do not affect each other or are unaffected by each other.    conclusionoverall, it can be concluded that most relationships between variables are ranked as 3 or very strong. therefore, six factors (land shortage, presence of fine-grained textures, increased local government authority, land speculation, entry and exit of non-professional builders, and the use of local materials in construction) are identified as key factors having the most significant impact on the desirable scenario in the vulnerability path of housing. fundingthere is no funding support. authors' contributionauthors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. all of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. conflict of interestauthors declared no conflict of interest. acknowledgmentswe are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.