شبکه تهدید و حلقه مخاطره شهری از منظر پدافند غیرعامل در ارزیابی زلزله مطالعه موردی: مناطق شهرداری کلان‌شهر تبریز

ضرورت توجه به ساماندهی نظام اسکان و توسعه شهری کارآمد و لزوم توجه به اندیشه‌های جدید شهرسازی و برنامه‌ریزی دفاعی شهر، برای رسیدن به اهداف پدافند شهری بسیار مهم به نظر می‌رسد. پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر شیوه اجرا توصیفی- تحلیلی است جامعه آماری مورد پرسش را کارشناسان و اساتید مرتبط با موضوع تشکیل داده است و مولفه‌های طبیعی، کالبدی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی و شاخص‌های مورد پرسش، متناسب با اصول پدافند غیرعامل شهری و در همپوشی با مطالعاتی که در مقالات، طرح‌های پژوهشی و... انجام‌گرفته بود تهیه و تدوین شدند. با استفاده از نرم‌افزار gis خروجی مدل‌ها به همراه دیگر لایه‌ها به‌صورت نقشه ترسیم گردید و نهایتاً به تحلیل نقشه خروجی مدل تاکسونومی و ساو در جهت مقایسه مناطق شهری ازنظر توسعه کالبدی و... اقدام گردید. متناسب با نتیجه مدل تاکسونومی منطقه 2 با کمترین آسیب‌پذیری رتبه اول است و منطقه 10 با بیشترین عدد در رتبه آخر است. همچنین با توجه به نتایج مدل ساو منطقه 2 در رتبه اول و منطقه 10 در رتبه ششم آسیب‌پذیری قرار دارند. استفاده از نظرات 30 نفر کارشناس متخصص و انتخاب 48 مولفه و شاخص در ارزیابی پرسشنامه‌ای خطرپذیری مناطق شهرداری و کاربست دو مدل جهت تطبیق نتایج برای بررسی جهت بهینه توسعه کالبدی در سطح کلان‌شهر از نوآوری‌های مقاله می‌باشد که در نهایت منطقه 2 شهرداری نسبت به منطقه 10 کم‌خطرتر تشخیص داده‌شده است.

threat network and urban risk ring from the point of view of passive defense in earthquake assessment: the case study of tabriz metropolitan areas

a b s t r a c tneeding pay attention to the organization of an efficient urban housing and development system and also need to pay attention to new urban planning and defense planning ideas seems very important to achieve the goals of urban defense. the present study is descriptive - analytical in terms of practical purpose and in terms of implementation method. the statistical community cause question is formed by experts and professors related to the topic, and the natural, physical, social and economic components and question are in accordance with the principles of urban passive defense and in conjunction with studies in articles, research projects and was done and edited. analyzed in taxonomy and sow models, and using gis software, the output of the models was mapped along with other layers, and finally analyzed the output map of the taxonomy and sow models to compare urban areas in terms of physical development. fits the taxonomic model. region 2 is the first with the least vulnerability, and region 10 is the last with the most vulnerability. also, according to the results of the sow model, zone 2 is ranked first and zone 10 is ranked sixth in vulnerability. using of the opinions of 30 experts and selection of 48 components and indicators in the questionnaire evaluation of the risk of municipal areas and use of two models to adapt the results to examine the optimal direction of the development of body at the level of the metropolitan area is one of the innovations of the article, which is ultimately identified as the 2nd district of the municipality and less dangerous than the 10th district.extended abstractintroductionthe large scale of damage and casualties caused by environmental hazards in various cities around the world has led to extensive applied research on optimizing urban immunization. on the other hand, methods of dealing with environmental hazards and securing cities have made it necessary to increase the efficiency of disaster management methods and urban immunization. therefore, it is clear that applied research in matters related to the immunization of cities against natural disasters and the use and application of passive defense principles and considerations will increase initiatives in designs and find the best policies and the most efficient and economical methods and technologies. cities suffer more damage than other settlements due to capital accumulation and high population density, as well as due to their size. because the threat network and the danger loop in cities today should be considered as a key issue in order to look at all aspects of the city's physical-spatial development with greater aristocracy and to advance targeted urban development programs, which has become inevitable between the creation and development of multi-purpose applications to reduce the vulnerability of cities from risks. tabriz is particular importance at the national level in the field of communication and defense, and of course, in the coming years, as in the past, it will be the driving force of the social, economic and environmental development of the country. that certainly clever review of the urban threat network could be effective in reducing the harmful effects of risks and more systematic urban development programs were developed and implemented. in this article, there are objectives such as: 1) risk and vulnerability mapping of municipal areas to facilitate the identification of critical areas of the tabriz metropolitan area from the perspective of the passive defender 2) examination of the vulnerability of the tabriz metropolitan municipality areas in proportion to the placement of fault lines and... and how well the vulnerability fits with reality. 3) analysis of the consistency of the output results of the models with each other and the reasons for the vulnerability and less vulnerability of the metropolitan municipality areas of tabriz by providing urban passive defense solutions. methodologythe present study is descriptive - analytical in terms of practical purpose and in terms of execution method the statistical community make question in experts and professors mind related to the topic, of which 30 people were selected using the personal estimation method as sample size in the ten areas, the natural, physical, social and economic components and indicators cause question were applied, in accordance with the objectives and principles of the urban passive defense and in conjunction with studies in articles, research projects. using the opinion of expert professors in the field of planning and earthquake, a set of components were qualitatively and quantitatively extracted, and the output of the survey of the situation of the municipal areas of tabriz metropolitan city was analyzed in taxonomy and sow models, and using gis software, the output of the models was mapped along with other layers, and finally analyzed the output map of the taxonomy and sow models to compare urban areas in terms of physical development results and discussionaccording to the taxonomic model, the map above shows the lowest value of the first-rate development exercise head, which will have the lowest vulnerability. thus, region 2 ranks first, regions 1, 5 and 9 rank second, regions 3 and 7 rank third, region 6 rank fourth, region 8 rank fifth, region 4 rank sixth, and region 10 rank last with more than one number. also, according to the results of the saw model, region 2 ranks first in regions 3 and 7 second and region 4 third, regions 6 and 8 fourth, regions 1, 5 and 9 fifth and region 10 rank sixth. conclusionthreats are a living and serious element that has always existed in all human activities and man-made infrastructure. given that cities are moving towards networking and systematization, and the systematic approach is manifested in the urban system, and it involves all the neighborhoods and areas of the urban system. the systematic urban system and attention to urban planning in urban development projects along with the analysis of the threat network and the risk loop during and after the earthquake crisis greatly relieve urban areas of the threat. with a comparative analysis of the results of taxonomic and su models, it can be concluded that areas 10, 9, 1, 5 and 6 were identified as areas with greater vulnerability, and areas 2, 3, 4 and 7 with less vulnerability are the result of the output of models, which is important because the centers and marginalized tissues of vulnerable areas and construction in the area and on the fault and... in these areas, he noted that the resilience of buildings, the increase in the construction of multi-purpose use, the increase in per capita open and green spaces, the reconstruction and reconstruction of the historical and old fabric of the city, the transfer and change of use of urban opposition users, the distribution of use and temporary housing centers in proportion to the population of municipal areas and the location of these safe centers in areas with less risk, the optimal distribution of relief users, the suspension of the arterial network in high-risk areas have been detected and... it's one of the most fundamental solutions to the crisis. fundingthere is no funding support. authors' contributionauthors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. all of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. conflict of interestauthors declared no conflict of interest. acknowledgments we are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.