پایداری مالی، نااطمینانی سیاست پولی و فعالیت‌های اقتصادی کشور

در مطالعه حاضر به تحلیل غیرخطی از رابطه پایداری مالی، نااطمینانی سیاست پولی و فعالیت های اقتصادی کشور با مدل هزینه فهرست بهای بال و منکیو با بکارگیری روش خودرگرسیون برداری ساختاری بر اساس فراوانی داده های سالانه طی بازه زمانی 2022 1990پرداخته می شود. مطابق با نتایج تخمین؛ مشخص گردید که تاثیر تکانه قیمت نفت بر تولید ناخالص داخلی مثبت بوده، اما تقریبا از دوره سوم و چهارم به بعد تاثیر آن از بین می رود که نشان از تاثیر کوتاه مدت درآمدهای نفتی بر تولید است. اثر تکانه پولی بر تولید برای کشور در ابتدا دارای تاثیر منفی بوده و در ادامه اثر آن از بین می رود. تاثیر تکانه قیمت نفت بر تسهیلات اعطایی در کشور منفی بوده است که آن هم می تواند ناشی از افزایش واردات به کشور به دلیل افزایش قیمت نفت و کنترل تورم باشد که از دوره چهارم به بعد از بین رفته است. تاثیر تکانه پولی بر تسهیلات اعطایی به بخش خصوصی هم در کشور مثبت است که دلیل آن را هم از کانال افزایش دارایی های خارجی بانک مرکزی و به تبع آن افزایش رشد پایه پولی و نقدینگی می توان موثر دانست. از دیگر توابع واکنش مهم می توان به تاثیر تکانه تولید بر تسهیلات اعطایی به بخش خصوصی اشاره کرد که تاثیر مثبت در کشور بخاطر وابستگی بیش از اندازه به واردات و کنترل تورم با افزایش واردات و جبران تولید مستقیم می باشد. نتایج به دست آمده بیانگر این موضوع است که همبستگی غیرخطی بین متغیرهای تحقیق وجود داشته است.

financial stability, uncertainty of monetary policy and economic activities of the country

in the present study, a non linear analysis of the relationship between financial stability, monetary policy uncertainty and the economic activities of the country with the cost model of the list price of ball and menkiu by using the structural vector autoregression (svar) method is performed based on the frequency of annual data during the period of 1990 2022. according to the estimation results; it was found that the effect of the oil price impulse on the gdp was positive, but its effect disappears from the third and fourth period onwards, which shows the short term effect of oil revenues on production. the effect of monetary stimulus on production for the country initially has a negative effect and then its effect disappears. the impact of the oil price impulse on the facilities granted in the country has been negative, which can also be caused by the increase in imports to the country due to the increase in oil prices and inflation control, which has been lost since the fourth period. the effect of monetary impulse on the facilities granted to the private sector is positive in the country as well, which can be considered effective from the channel of increasing the foreign assets of the central bank and consequently increasing the growth of the monetary base and liquidity. among other important reaction functions, we can mention the impact of production impulse on the facilities granted to the private sector, which has a positive effect in the country due to excessive dependence on imports and controlling inflation by increasing imports and compensating direct production. the obtained results indicate that there was a non linear correlation between the research variables. according to the experimental results of this study on the effect of monetary policies on production and the dependence of the effect of these policies on economic conditions, it is suggested that the central bank and the monetary authorities of the country for the optimal effect of monetary policies on the economic conditions of the country and the situation of the periods consider business in decision making. also, based on the results obtained in this study, in order to prevent the negative effects of the oil price increase on the country's economy, it is possible to suggest the control of the government budget as the most important factor in controlling the net balance of the government's foreign exchange reserves and providing conditions for productive activity and the inflation rate. be controlled in large quantities.