تاثیر روابط دیپلماتیک آمریکا با کشورهای ساحلی دریای چین جنوبی بر کاهش قدرت چین

افزایش قدرت نظامی و نفوذ سیاسی چین در شرق آسیا باعث ایجاد نگرانی و سوءظن در میان برخی از همسایگان آن و ایالات‌متحده شده است. به‌ویژه قاطعیت فزاینده پکن بر حق حاکمیت و حقوق دریایی در دریای چین جنوبی به‌عنوان یک چالش جدی برای کشورهای منطقه و قدرت‌های ذی‌نفع تلقی می‌شود. از این‌رو، ترس کشورهای حوزه پیرامونی این دریا از محاصره توسط چین موجب شده تا این کشورها خواستار نقش فعال‌تر واشنگتن در معادلات منطقه برای ایجاد موازنه در برابر تهدیدات فزاینده چین شوند. بدین ترتیب، سوال اصلی پژوهش این است که روابط دیپلماتیک آمریکا با کشورهای ساحلی دریای چین جنوبی چگونه منجر به کاهش قدرت چین در این منطقه می‌شود؟ مفروض پژوهش این است که آمریکا از طریق توسعه روابط دیپلماتیک با کشورهای ساحلی دریای چین جنوبی و با ایجاد ادراک تهدید نسبت به حضور چین و شکل دادن به رقابت تسلیحاتی در دریای جنوبی، زمینه کاهش نفوذ چین در دریای چین جنوبی را فراهم می‌آورد. نتایج این تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که توسعه روابط واشنگتن با کشورهای همسایه چین در دریای چین جنوبی، ضمن محاصره و انزوای چین، منجر به کاهش قلمروی قدرت و نفوذ دریایی پکن در دریای چین جنوبی و آب‌های اطراف خواهد شد که این امر، می‌تواند باعث تحول قدرت و شکل‌گیری معادلات سیاسی به نفع واشنگتن و هم‌پیمانان آن در شرق آسیا شود. این اقدامات واشنگتن ریشه در به تصور کشیدن چهره­ای تهدیدآمیز از پکن برای کشورهای منطقه و بین‌الملل دارد. نوشتار حاضر به روش توصیفی-تحلیلی صورت گرفته و اطلاعات و داده‌های لازم را از مقالات و منابع اینترنتی جمع‌آوری کرده است.

the impact of us diplomatic relations with the south china sea littoral states on the decline of china's power

introductionthe south china sea is of great importance to regional and international countries due to its strategic and geostrategic location. china claims vast areas of the south china sea that overlap with the exclusive economic zones of vietnam, malaysia, brunei, indonesia, and the philippines. the geopolitical importance of this region has led the united states to expand its military presence in this maritime area by intervening in territorial disputes and conflicts in the south china sea, thereby increasing political, economic, and military cooperation with countries surrounding china. the united states is becoming more and more eager to intervene and play a role in the south china sea, and in this regard, it has sought to expand its presence and push back washington's regional influence in east asia. perceptions and threats arising from china’s growing power in the region have led to the expansion of washington’s political, economic, and military interactions with china’s neighboring countries, which could have a significant impact on reducing beijing’s naval power and influence in the south china sea and establishing a balance of power in favor of washington and its regional allies in east asia.literature reviewalizadeh (2022), in an article titled “america’s new approach in a. s. it; strengthening strategic partnership to counter china”; acknowledges that the united states is pursuing a policy of regional weakening and containment of china and, in this regard, is trying to update washington’s old strategies in the region and its relationship with a. s. it members following new developments in the region.stepanov (2022), in an article titled “united states policy towards southeast asia: from barack obama to joe biden”; it deals with the confrontation between the united states and china and does not consider interaction with southeast asia as an end in itself. the author also states that countries such as vietnam and the philippines have the potential to strengthen their relations with the united states. the innovation of the present article is that previous research has mainly focused on the effect of the dependent variable on the independent variable; however, the present study attempts to examine and analyze the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable, which is the effect of the development of us diplomatic relations with the coastal countries of the south china sea on the decline of china's power in the region.methodologythe present study is applied in terms of its purpose and its method is qualitative. in this study, the description, study, and analysis of what is are also addressed; therefore, this study is a descriptive-analytical research in terms of its implementation method. given the nature of the subject under study, the method of collecting data and research information is also library and internet methods.results and discussionby relying on its high economic power and advantage, china has been able to easily increase its influence among the us allies in the asia-pacific region. beijing’s institutional approach, such as the establishment of the shanghai cooperation organization and the asian infrastructure investment bank, is considered beijing’s most important step in increasing its regional influence and challenging the american order (mohammadnia and nasser pourhassan, 2023: 111). china’s high rate of economic growth has paved the way for the transformation and modernization of its armed forces. in many ways, china’s defense transformation may be seen as part of a normal process of military modernization, facilitated by technological advances, such as the military revolution, which is very effective in beijing’s defense strategy. for example, at the strategic level, china continues to develop a ballistic missile force with a strong second-strike capability on land and at sea. therefore, china’s nuclear force may be seen as a deterrent against the much larger nuclear arsenal of the united states. china has also developed a powerful short- and medium-range ballistic missile capability to counter potential incidents in the taiwan strait (thayer, 2010: 70).the united states is increasingly keen to play a role and presence in the south china sea, and is trying to gradually expand china’s encirclement ring. in an interview, mearsheimer supported the idea that “the united states will form a balancing coalition in asia that will include most of china’s and the united states’ neighbors, and they will work to contain china and prevent its dominance in asia” (teixeira, 2018: 18). the philippines and vietnam, both of which have disputes with china over claims in the south china sea, have welcomed the presence of the united states in the region to provide additional security support (lum, 2011: 9). indonesia, malaysia, and brunei are also regional claimants in the south china sea. they are also partners in the us involvement in the south china sea issue. however, unlike the radical philippines and vietnam, these three countries have relatively mild reactions to us intervention (anwar, 2013: 3). as a quasi-ally of the us in southeast asia, singapore has always played an important role as a defense partner and logistical supporter of the us military. it hopes that the us will continue to play its role in balancing against chinese influence (desker, 2013: 30). thailand, cambodia and laos are not parties to the south china sea dispute. they have relatively low demands on us security and have good bilateral relations with china. therefore, their response to the us rebalancing strategy in the asia-pacific region has been very cautious (prasirtsuk, 2013: 35). finally, it seems that myanmar’s foreign policy has reached a new crossroads. as u zaw htay, the director of the office of the president of myanmar, said in 2013, one of the most important challenges facing myanmar is how to structure its foreign policy, including how to actively participate in asean issues and how to formulate policies related to the south china sea, asean, the united states, and china. currently, myanmar is still in a critical period of political transformation, and its domestic and external trends are full of uncertainty (yun, 2015: 27-28).conclusionthe south china sea has recently attracted the attention of regional and international countries due to the intensification of conflicts and territorial disputes in the region. in addition to developing its economic capabilities, china has also taken significant steps in its military modernization, which is considered a strategic threat to the coastal countries of the south china sea and the extensive presence of the united states in the region. the perceptions and concerns of the united states and the coastal countries of the south china sea about china's rise and dominance in the region, which they consider a strategic threat to their regional interests and policies, have led to the development of a network of alliances and diplomatic relations between washington and china's neighboring countries, which, while preventing beijing's increasing power and its isolation in the region, will have a significant impact on establishing political equations in line with the goals and interests of the white house and its allies in southeast asia.