نقش کریدور زنگزور بر منافع ملی و روابط دیپلماتیک ایران در قفقاز جنوبی

یکی از مهم‌ترین مسیرهای حمل و نقل زمینی در منطقه قفقاز، کریدور زنگزور است که جمهوری آذربایجان را از طریق ارمنستان به نخجوان و ترکیه متصل و زمینه را برای ارتباط آسیا، اروپا و خاورمیانه با یکدیگر فراهم می‌سازد. کریدور زنگزور نقطه عطفی در تحولات ژئوپلیتیکی منطقه اوراسیا به شمار می‌آید و بر ترتیبات و معادلات ژئوپلیتیک و ژئواکونومیک این منطقه اثرگذار است. پرسش اصلی مقاله حاضر این است که کریدور زنگزور چه تاثیری بر منافع ملی ایران در قفقاز جنوبی دارد؟ با استفاده از روش توصیفی- تحلیلی این فرضیه مورد بررسی قرار گرفت که تشکیل کریدور «زنگزور» تاثیرات منفی اقتصادی، سیاسی، ژئوپلیتیکی بر منافع ملی  جمهوری اسلامی ایران مانند فقر ژئوپلیتیکی، کاهش قدرت چانه‌زنی نسبت به ترکیه و آذربایجان و تهدید توازن قدرت منطقه‌ای به ضرر ایران در قفقاز جنوبی دارد. بر اساس نظریه توازن قوا، یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که ایران در مسیر توازن قوا با ترکیه و روسیه در منطقه، می‌بایست نسبت به تثبیت مسیر جایگزین زنگزور و ایجاد کارگروه سه‌جانبه با ترکیه و جمهوری آذربایجان، نهایی سازی مسیر رشت - آستارا برای خنثی‌سازی انگیزه‌های حمایتی روسیه، احیای نقش توازن‌گر در منطقه قفقاز و جلوگیری از اتحاد ترکیه، آذربایجان و گرجستان برای بی‌اثر کردن مسیرهای ترانزیتی کشورمان اقدام کند و با ایجاد کریدورهای جایگزین، از بازگشت گزینه استفاده از زور برای اشغال استان سیونیک ارمنستان و بازگشایی کریدور زنگزور از این مسیر، ممانعت کرده و بر توافقات اخیر خود با باکو مبنی بر اتصال جمهوری آذربایجان به نخجوان از داخل جمهوری اسلامی ایران تاکید نماید. بنابراین این کریدور می‌تواند باعث تخلیه ظرفیت‌های ژئوپلیتیکی ایران شود و ایران را از بسیاری از مسیرهای ترانزیتی محروم کند.

the role of the zangezur corridor on iran's national interests in the south caucasus

introductionone of the most important land transportation routes is the zangezur corridor, which connects the republic of azerbaijan to russia and turkey through armenia, providing a vital link between asia, europe, and the middle east. this article seeks to answer the question of how the zangezur corridor impacts iran's national interests in the south caucasus. using a descriptive-analytical approach, we aim to prove the hypothesis that the establishment of the zangezur corridor has negative economic, political, and geopolitical consequences for the national interests of the islamic republic of iran. these include geopolitical marginalization, reduced bargaining power vis-à-vis turkey and azerbaijan, and a threat to the regional balance of power, which could ultimately disadvantage iran in the south caucasus.literature reviewso far, various studies have been conducted on the zangezur corridor, but none have carefully examined its impact on iran's national interests and security. some of these works include: the international multicultural center in baku, in its book albania of the monuments of karabakh and east zangezur (2024), explores the history of azerbaijan and the heritage of albanian christianity, which represents one of its richest cultural aspects. it also discusses the historical significance of the albanian monuments in karabakh and east zangezur, which are among the finest examples of this heritage.in their article the zangezur corridor as a new transport hub for integration and cooperation in the south caucasus (2023), muhammad gulakhmadov and ramil hossein examine the economic significance of the zangezur corridor in the south caucasus, focusing on its potential to promote long-term peace, connectivity, and integration in the region, as well as to strengthen regional growth. the authors also argue that the zangezur corridor will play a key role in fostering economic reconciliation and economic cooperation in the south caucasus in the future. the present study examines the role of the zangezur corridor in relation to iran's national interests, presenting an innovative approach both in terms of subject matter and methodology. it is innovative in terms of subject matter because none of the existing studies have analyzed the impact of the zangezur corridor on iran's national interests in the south caucasus. additionally, it is innovative in terms of methodology because the study applies the theory of the balance of power to explore this issue.methodologythe construction of the zangezur corridor and its integration into the broader middle corridor plan pose significant threats to the interests of the islamic republic of iran in the region. this development could alter the regional balance of power to iran's disadvantage, which is why the islamic republic opposes the construction of the zangezur corridor on armenian territory. to explore this issue, the present study employs the principles of walt's neorealism theory and the balance of power.results**the research findings indicate that the zangezur corridor threatens iran's regional balance in four key aspects:reducing iran's bargaining power vis-à-vis turkeydiminishing iran's bargaining power vis-à-vis the republic of azerbaijanenhancing russia's geopolitical and geoeconomic presenceiran's potential opportunities and strategies in response to the zangezur corridor**discussionthe zangezur corridor should not be viewed merely as an issue between the republic of azerbaijan and armenia. its construction poses significant risks to iran’s national interests, security, and even territorial integrity. with the establishment of this corridor, which would eliminate the border between iran and armenia, iran’s access to europe would depend on the approval of turkey and the republic of azerbaijan. moreover, the loss of iran’s proximity to armenia would remove iran’s gas leverage over turkey, while the republic of azerbaijan would be able to export its gas to turkey more easily and quickly. as a result, iran would face a geostrategic dilemma, diminishing its geopolitical importance. additionally, with baku and turkey becoming direct neighbors, the military power of these two countries would consolidate, strengthening their anti-iranian positions and activities. the zangezur corridor is part of turkey’s strategy to connect to central asia and china, making turkey a key player in the chinese new silk road initiative. consequently, by creating the zangezur corridor, turkey and the republic of azerbaijan would effectively exclude iran from this strategic project. since the south caucasus has been designated as the near abroad in russia’s foreign policy doctrine, all developments in the region are ultimately influenced and controlled by russia. this has transformed the south caucasus into a geopolitical playground for russia, turkey, and, in recent years, israel. due to its close ties with russia, iran’s ability to make decisions and act effectively to address the zangezur corridor issue has become more challenging than before. however, to confront the policies of the republic of azerbaijan and turkey, iran must focus on improving its relations with powerful global and regional players. strengthening these relations will enhance iran’s position and influence in both the international and regional arenas.conclusionconsidering the strategies to utilize opportunities and manage challenges in order to safeguard iran's economic security, the following recommendations are proposed:consolidating an alternative route to zangezur and forming a trilateral working group with turkey and azerbaijan: iran has proposed a plan to build a bridge over the aras river to connect azerbaijan to nakhchivan, offering an alternative route to zangezur. however, azerbaijan views this route as temporary, limited until the end of the ukrainian war. by forming a trilateral working group with turkey and azerbaijan, iran can persuade the leaders of both countries and ensure the long-term sustainability of this route for both parties.finalizing the rasht-astara route to neutralize russia’s support for zangezur: one of the key reasons behind russia's support for the zangezur route, despite the challenges posed by european sanctions and russia’s northern routes, is the delay in completing the rasht-astara railway infrastructure. it is crucial to expedite the completion of this infrastructure to make the north-south corridor more effective and to neutralize russia's motives in this regard.conditionalizing the implementation of the zangezur route: given the shared interests of russia and turkey in the construction of the zangezur route, it is likely that this route will be implemented in the coming months or years. it is recommended that iran engage in negotiations and apply pressure on the parties involved, particularly russia, to limit the scope of this route to cargo and passenger transportation only. additionally, iran should work to prevent the establishment of any security-related infrastructure or energy transmission networks along this route in the future.